Posts related to ‘Consumer Goods’

The Great Wal-Mart Battery Trade-Out (XIDE, JCI, WMT)

Exide Technologies (NASDAQ: XIDE) is getting crushed today after news that the company was notified by Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) that the retailer will stop selling the company’s auto batteries in WalMart stores.  It would be the understatement of the year to note that when companies lose WalMart as one of their retail distributors, it hurts.  But don’t bother telling that to Johnson Controls Inc. (NYSE: JCI).  Johnson has just announced that it was selected as the sole source provider of its Automotive, Marine, Powersport and Lawn & Garden battery requirements for WalMart stores in the United States and Puerto Rico.
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eBay Looking Good Enough (EBAY)

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) looks mixed on the reaction despite the positive headline data.  The online auction monopoly posted $0.44 non-GAAP EPS on $2.37 billion in revenues.  Thomson Reuters had estimates at $0.40 EPS and $2.29 billion in revenues.  The guidance would be taken as mixed here by our count considering its move of the last year, yet it is being well received by the traders.
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Kodak Going After Apple & R-I-M, Yesterday’s Trading Beware (EK, AAPL, RIMM)

Eastman Kodak Company (NYSE: EK) was a huge mover yesterday on no news.  The trading was actually muted, but it was the huge amount of options trading that came in the form of the FEB2010 $5.00 CALLS that got everyone into chasing the stock.  Then it closed up in the double-digits yesterday, yet there was no news and the message boards hadn’t even started to pick things up on any scale until after we had discussed the highly unusual options trading.  But then at 9:33 AM EST this morning came the news…. Eastman Kodak has announced that it filed lawsuits against Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM).
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Something Brewing at Eastman Kodak? (EK)

Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) has been one of the greatest American brands and great American success stories…. of our parents’ lives.  For the last decade this has been a perpetual turnaround story with high hopes and promises.  Yet it has never turned around.  It was considered a value stock for some time as well, yet that is history now even after a large private equity investment.  It has done poorly in periods of growth and periods of recession.  Usually when you see us talking about Eastman Kodak you are hearing about how it needs a new CEO to replace Antonio Perez.  Today is a very different day because the stock and the options trading volume is highly unusual.
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Blackstone Looks for IPO Exit in Graham Packaging (GRM, BX)

Graham Packaging Company Inc. is one of the most recent filings for a private equity-backed initial public offering.  While terms were not given for this IPO, the company listed that it would sell up to $350 million worth of common stock.  The packaging company said that it plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the stock symbol “GRM.”  It did not even list any underwriters in the preliminary prospectus, although the company is tied to The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX).
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Friday’s Top Options Alert: Bristol-Myers & Mead Johnson (BMY, MJN)

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) has been a real pest in the world of analyzing options trading activity.  There has been a perpetual open interest alert with a monster contract volume in the DEC-2009 $30 CALLS and DEC-2009 $30 PUTS.  The culprit is tied to the company splitting off its approximately 83% holdings in Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE: MJN) and that is probably tied to this event plus an added index weighting change as Mead Johnson will be added into the S&P 500 Index.

It appears that after today that Bristol-Myers Squibb is finally going to drop off the radar of the most active contracts and open interest in options trading.  So far we have yet to see the trades roll out further on the calendar in 2010 to January, March, or June.
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From Scandal to Finance: Tiger Woods Top Financial Pieces

Tiger Wood said he would take an “indefinite” leave from golf, putting his endorsements, the income of the PGA Tour, and PGA charities all at risk.

As we expected, the Tiger Woods scandal has moved above and beyond just a scandal.  This has become one of the key business stories with ramifications for many companies, many stocks, and may become a case study for businesses involved in scandals.  How many billionaire athletes get into this much soup and blow their reputation out of the water like this?  Right, it has never happened.  But Tiger Woods is (or was) a business franchise beyond the person that is no different from sports greats Bobby Jones, Cy Young, Vince Lombardi, Michael Jordan, and on and on.

We have compiled a list of the top 10 business stories on this scandal from this week, and this is likely to continue into 2010.  Much relies on brand analysis, but there are some key strategic and outlook bits included.  Some businesses are actually winning from the scandal.
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Tiger Brand Death (PEP, ACN, AXP, ERTS, NKE)

Tiger Woods has been the dominating news force over the last week.  It has been such a distraction that we have even worried that this would take everyone’s eyes and ears off of the key issues happening in Washington D.C. and around the world.  And now the business angles are starting to emerge, with an outcome you might have suspected.  It appears that PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) the first brand partnership  being changed.  Reports are out that Pepsi’s Gatorade unit is dropping the Tiger-inspired drink called “Focus.”
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Amazon.com: As Cramer and Others Get Too Bullish (AMZN, WMT, BBY)

It is impossible to argue against the success of Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) as a company, and it is also impossible to say that the stock is not on fire.  After all, 52-week highs AND all-time highs are the greatest measurement a stock can get.  The problem here is that this last run has so many investors excited that the metrics for valuing Amazon are starting to resemble the great tech bubble all over again, at least for a time of “the new normal.”  And Wednesday night’s tout from Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Mad Money” said Amazon has another 74 points of upside.

The problem is that if you take the math used to get there, consider where this stock has been, consider the outside forces, and add in just a few small risk factors, this figure gets more than difficult to justify in almost any scenario short of a 2010 stock market that can repeat the gains seen in 2009.
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eBay’s PayPal Becomes Hidden Holiday Spending Winner (EBAY)

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) may be the unexpected winner of cyber-shopping for the 2009  holiday shopping season.  Today, the company released data showing that its PayPal unit posted strong gains for yesterday on the famed “Cyber-Monday” as well as for Black Friday.  While it is not a new phenomenon that eBay does well each year around Christmas, it seems that the short supplies of retailer inventories for many popular items is sending consumers over to eBay stores rather than to traditional online e-tailers.

PayPal saw double-digit growth for its third consecutive year in online sales, or total payment volume, on Cyber Monday.
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Retail Gimmicks More Fine-Tuned for Black Friday (AAPL, AMZN, WMT, BBY, COST, TGT, KSS, M, JWN)

Black Friday is under 48 hours away.  We have seen much data and much analysis out there on the topic, but there are two fairly easy conclusions here…. well, make it three.  First is that consumers are going to get deals galore.  The add-in third notion, or the second, is that inventories at stores will be very low and many items may have to be bought online (with free or low-priced shipping to boot).  But the big conclusion here is that it seems a foregone conclusion that the great deals and (quasi-) price matching and free shipping offered by retailers are still likely to create margin pressure for the retailers even if they have strong sales.

This is a sampling review of some of the promotions from major retailers.  No particular order has been given.  Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) are worth noting, but the major retailers featured are Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY), Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), Kohl’s Corp. (NYSE: KSS), Macy’s, Inc. (NYSE: M), and Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN).
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Jobless Data Triumphs in Economic Data Deluge

We just had a deluge of economic data in Personal Income & Spending for September, a rather solid figure on weekly jobless claims and in continuing  jobless claims, and a somewhat tepid durable goods orders data.  While there is still nothing robust, the jobs data this morning is the tipping point that allowed equities to run higher.

  • Personal Income & Spending for September were pretty much in-line at +0.2% on income and +0.7% on spending.  Dow Jones had estimates at +0.1% on income and +0.6% on spending.
  • Initial Jobless Claims came in at 466,000, the first drop under 500,000 in months and months and months.  That is the lowest jobless claims all year and under the 495,000 expected by Bloomberg.  If that can hold up and get closer to 400,000 then it will stop the rise in the unemployment rate.  The army of jobless via the continuing jobless claims also fell by 190,000 to 5,423,000.
  • Durable Orders (October) was a disappointment at -0.6% versus the Bloomberg estimate of +0.5%.  For whatever it is worth, this is the most volatile of the big economic numbers.  On an ex-transportation basis, the figure was worse still at -1.3%.  However, ex-Defense the figure is +0.2% and the September headline data was revised to +2.0% from +1.4%.

Frankly, that jobs data is the crux of the matter.  The rest is all gravy as equity futures have risen on the data.

JON C.  OGG

eBay Crashes on Saturday (EBAY)

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) is having an issue which may have just cost sellers millions and millions of dollars in untold profits today.  After doing random searches today on Christmas present purchases and with eBay being one of the online destinations, it was suddenly clear that something was wrong on eBay.  The system was not working if you did not already have your item numbers known.  Search functions yielded nothing and stores were out.  If this were to happen after midnight on a Tuesday, it might not matter.  But this outage is on a weekend day when so many buyers and sellers aren’t at work and are able to spend the effort to go eBaying.

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52-Week High Club

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (NYSE: BNI) surged close to 30% to a yearly high of $97.59 following news that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) will be buying the freight rail operator for $100 per share, which places the value of the company at $44 billion.

The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE: BDK) rallied close to 30% to a yearly high of $61.79  following news that the tool makers has agreed to be purchased by Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) in an all stock deal valued at $4.5 billion.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (NASDAQ: CTSH) rose over 8% to a yearly high of $42.40.  The computer services and technology consulting company announced that its 3Q 09 profit rose roughly 21%, beating analyst estimates.  The company also raised its 2009 profit estimate to $1.88 per share from $1.78 per share.

Landry’s Restaurants (NYSE: LNY) rose over 25% to a yearly high of $13.99.  The restaurant, hospitality and entertainment company following rose on news that the company’s chief executive, Timothy J. Fertitta has agreed to purchase the company for $14.75 per share, or $1.2 billion.

Garrett W. McIntyre

Tech M&A King Cisco (CSCO) Pushes Into The Living Room

TVCisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) may control most of the global router and enterprise video conferencing business, but it wants a bigger footprint in home video delivery. Silicon Valley’s biggest M&A machine has snapped up China set-top box company DVN for $44.5 million.

Cisco already has a large set-top business in the US, but the Chinese market has 160 million cable subscribers and that makes it the most promising market for set-top sales in the world. Read More »

Stanley Wants Bigger Tool Works (SWK, BDK, SNA)

Money ImageThe tool sector for builders and home repair is about to get a lot smaller for investors looking for diversification of company choices to invest in.  The Stanley Works (NYSE: SWK) and The Black & Decker Corporation (NYSE: BDK) have proposed a merger which would unite the brands.  The companies see accretion to earnings per share of about $1.00 per share by year three with some $350 million in cost synergies.  This deal is a stock for stock merger where Black & Decker shareholders would receive a fixed shares ratio of 1.275 shares Of Stanley common stock per 1 share held of Black & Decker common stock.
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Personal Income & Spending Dispel Inflation Fears

Money ImageThe consumer is still strapped.  The Commerce Department posted its data for September’s personal income and spending, and frankly it almost makes you question yesterday’s GDP data.  The report showed that Personal Income was unchanged in September, but showed that Spending was down by -0.5%.  Dow Jones and other consensus data were looking for figures to be largely unchanged.  The drop in spending appears to the worst reading this year, but there is a silver lining… with no income rise there is that much less fear of a heating inflation tea kettle.
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Wal-Mart Outlines 2010-2011 Growth Plans (WMT)

WalMart LogoWal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has been having its analyst meeting this week and we now have a release from the company showing its growth plan next year.  This also updates the cap-ex fiscal year ending on Jan. 31, 2011.  As Wal-Mart is one of the stocks that the rally has left behind, it is not that surprising that the company is not just sitting on its hands.
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Wholesale Inflation Remains Muted

Money ImageThe Labor Department has released the September Producer Price Index, the measure of wholesale inflation.  We did see a slightly raised Consumer Price Index last week and that had many of the inflation bugs on edge for the wholesale data.  Yet the inflationary pressure appears to be remaining tame.  The headline PPI came in at -0.6% after showing a +1.7% gain in August, and estimates from Dow Jones were -0.2% and estimates from Bloomberg were -0.3%.  The core rate of ex-food and energy came in at -0.1% versus a Dow Jones consensus of +0.1% and a Bloomberg consensus of +0.1%.
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What Inflation?

Money ImageWe have just gotten the Labor Department’s measure of retail inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index.  The September reading still has inflation running tame, and many will be watching for more of the Producer Price Index data as a result to try to interpret when suppliers and wholesalers will have to finally pass inflation on down to the public at the consumer level.  The September CPI came in at +0.2% versus a Bloomberg consensus reading of +0.1% expected.  The core CPI, ex-food and energy, rose also by +0.2% versus the Bloomberg consensus estimate of +0.1%.

These figures are still far short of any sinister inflationary scenario.  But with the mountain of money that has been printed, with gold over $1,000 and with oil back over $75.00, the inflation-bugs are getting more and more ammo to support their thesis.  The feeling is that inflation is not yet here.  Yet.

JON C. OGG

OCTOBER 15, 2009