Surprisingly, given recent tepid reports on job growth, consumers continue to expect steady, if slow, job increases. From the announcement:

In each of the past three months, a majority of consumers reported an improved economy, and twice as many expected further improvement rather than renewed declines in the year ahead. Most consumers, however, expected the gains to be modest. Confidence in the government’s economic policies remained relatively low, with 41% holding negative views.

Consumers’ view on current conditions rose by 5.2% month-over-month to 87.2, supported by lower prices for durable goods. A significant majority — 72% — of those surveyed said now is a good time to buy a new car.

The index reading on future conditions shows a less-optimistic 2.8% month-over-month gain to 74.3. The coming national elections and the forthcoming political battle over the country’s debt ceiling are the likely causes of the more temperate view of future conditions.

Paul Ausick

Earnings growth for the reporting retailers is up too, by 11.8%. Excluding Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) due to its size, Retail Metrics reckons that its 120 retailers will show profit growth of 12.2% in the first quarter. Including Walmart, profits will rise 13.8%.

The best profit growth is expected in the recreational sector, with Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) and Hibbett Sports Inc. (NASDAQ: HIBB) leading the way a 40%+ earnings gain. Home furnishing retailers are expected to post 40% gains, led by Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) and Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM). Footwear retailers are tabbed to grow profits 31%, following huge gains at Brown Shoe Co. (NYSE: BWS) and Footlocker Inc. (NYSE: FL).

The worst performing sector is projected to be consumer electronics, with teen apparel stores the only other retailing sector expected to post overall losses. Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) and GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) are the big players here. Teen apparel retailers like Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) have struggled with same-store sales and revenues, as well as earnings.

Paul Ausick

The figure that will stand out the most is that same-store sales so far in May are up 3.0% over May 2011 on a month-to-date basis.  These same-store sales are down about 0.9% sequentially if you compare these to April.

Redbook said that sales were slower in the last week and the culprit is shoppers taking a break after Mother’s Day and delayed shopping pending Memorial Day promotions.  The report also noted that cooler weather in some regions dampened demand for apparel, lawn and garden equipment and sporting goods at department stores and discount stores.

Redbook now expects year-over-year same-store sales growth of 2.8% for May, which actually translates to a 1.1% sequentially over the month of April.

The bad news is obviously a decline sequentially and an annual growth that is considered anemic on a system-wide basis.  The good news here is that this is still showing growth from a year ago.

JON C. OGG

Of the top brands, the following came in after Apple:

2. International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM)

3. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG)

4. McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD)

5. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)

6. Coca-Cola Corporation (NYSE: KO)

7. Marlboro of Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO)

8. AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T)

9. Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ)

10. China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL)

11. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)

The ‘Top Riser” from 2011 to 2012 was Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) with a 74% rise

The full Millward Brown study on these brands gets broken down into segments such as industry, brand growth, geographic, and sectors.

JON C. OGG

Smith & Wesson now sees its April quarter sales around $129 million versus the consensus of $119.8 million and versus its prior range of $113 million to $118 million.

The company’s preliminary firearm order backlog increased to about $439 million, up about 135% versus a year ago and up about 121% sequentially.  Ongoing strength in pistols and modern sporting rifles helped, as did a successful product launch.

No one wants to admit it this, but it seems as though gun demand may be running cyclical around election cycles as well.  Smith & Wesson shares are up over 5% at $6.59 versus a 52-week range of $2.29 to $8.62; Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. (NYSE: RGR) is down by over 5% at $40.13.  The difference between the two companies in size is that Smith Wesson is worth $428 million and Sturm Ruger is worth $768 million in market cap.

Alliant Techsystems Inc. (NYSE: ATK) has other operations tied to defense and space launches, but it is the leader in bullet manufacturing. The group’s products include brands such as Federal Premium, CCI, Speer, RCBS, Alliant Powder, Champion, Weaver, Eagle Industries, and Blackhawk! Industries. Alliant’s shares are up only 0.1% at $51.83 today and the 52-week range is $48.00 to $72.84.

Dirty Harry… “Well, we’re not going to just let you walk out of here.” Who’s We? “Smith, Wesson and me”

JON C. OGG

The motor home maker also said that it “has not received sufficient information to deem the offer as credible.” The company also noted:

The “offer” described in the letter is highly conditional, requiring, among other things, due diligence and further negotiation. The Company advises that no offer has been made to shareholders and that they need not take any action at this time in response to North Street’s letter.

For its quarter ended in February, Winnebago reported a net loss of $912,000, blaming “increased discounts and continued aggressive pricing strategies” for the shortfall. Shares have not priced above $20 since early 2008, as the US recession battered sales and margins and the economic recovery has been slow. High gas prices don’t help either.

Winnebago’s shares are up, but the company’s lukewarm response to the offer is capping the enthusiasm. Shares are trading up about 5.4% at $8.97 in a 52-week range of $6.02-$12.40.

Brown Shoe posted adjusted EPS of $0.23 versus a consensus estimate of $0.09. Revenue totaled $626.4 million compared with an estimate of $600.7 million. The company also guided full-year EPS to $0.83-$0.95, while the consensus estimate had been $0.86. Revenue guidance of $2.57-$2.59 billion was also higher than the $2.55 billion estimate.

Footlocker posted EPS of $0.83 versus a consensus estimate of $0.74. Revenue totaled $1.58 billion compared with an estimate of $1.55 billion. The company did not provide guidance in its press release, but the consensus estimate for the current quarter calls for EPS of $0.31 on revenue of $1.34 billion. For the full year, Footlocker is expected to show EPS of $2.28 on revenue of $6.01 billion.

Shares of Footlocker are up 9.8% at $30.76 in a 52-week range of $16.66-32.27. Brown Shoe is up more than 15% at $10.09 in a 52-week range of $5.85-$11.42.

Paul Ausick

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) has been talking about a similar plan for at least a year now, while Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) and T-Mobile USA, which is owned by Germany’s Deutsche Telekom AG (OTC: DTEGY), still focus on family plans that offer limited 4G data for up to two phone lines, which is not the same thing.

The carriers see the shared data plans as a new opportunity for growing revenues. The new iPad from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) with its high-resolution retina display can chew through a standard 2 Gbyte data plan in just a couple of hours of streaming video.

At its investor meeting yesterday, Verizon had this to say:

As [subscribers] start to migrate into 4G, they will have to come off of unlimited and go into the data share plan. And that is beneficial for us for many reasons, obviously.

And that “obviously” means that more subscribers will purchase the more costly cellular-enabled tablets and use more data, boosting monthly payments to Verizon Wireless. With only Verizon and AT&T likely to offer the plans, at least at the beginning, subscribers should not be looking forward to any great bargain. The shared data plans are not intended to be a public service.

Paul Ausick

The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey showed that the pace of growth fell from a higher growth rate in recent months, while the survey’s broad indicators for general activity fell into negative territory for the first time in eight months. The reading came in at -5.8 as prices paid and received fell sharply in the report.  Bloomberg had the consensus for Philly Fed at 10.0 and the range of estimates was 5.0 to 13.0 for this report.

The Conference Board’s report on Leading Indicators for April fell by 0.1% after being up by 0.3% in March.  Bloomberg had estimates of 0.1% for the leading indicators, and the range of estimates was 0.0% to 0.3% for the report.  This last month had only five of the ten indicators in the positive, although its coincident index did manage to rise by 0.2%.  Delivery times were the worst drag and this was the first negative report in eight months.

The equity markets were all lower ahead of the data and these reports do not exactly signal any great confidence.

JON C. OGG

Thomson Reuters has estimates of $1.04 EPS and $110.4 billion in revenue.  We worry that currency could be an issue, but that may be the case for this current quarter rather than the quarter-end of April.  Estimates for the coming quarter are $1.16 EPS and $115.31 billion.

Wal-Mart’s stock chart matters immensely here.  The 50-day moving average has acted as significant resistance and that level is currently $59.75.  As it turns out, %59.50 to $59.75 acted as the last floor in February after the prior breakout attempt failed.  It probably does not hurt that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-B) just raised the stake considerably in Wal-Mart shares.

Options traders are not expecting much of a move on the earnings.  While expiration date is this Friday, the options trades only have an event-pricing of up to about $1.20 or so in either direction.  The stock fell $2.00 after the prior earnings report in February.

Analysts have not abandoned Wal-Mart and the current $59.20 or so price compares to a Thomson Reuters consensus target of $63.82 on the stock.  Wal-Mart yields 2.7% and the 52-week trading range is $48.31 to $62.63.

Keep in mind that Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) has already report earnings and the stock is up only 0.7% in a late-day reaction.

Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) is also set to report earnings on Thursday but the retailer under Eddie Lampert and friends is thinly followed by the analyst community.  Of the few estimates (literally three estimates) from Thomson Reuters we see a “consensus” of a loss at -$0.67 EPS on $9.15 billion in sales.  Sears shares are down 3.2% around $51.25 late on Wednesday ahead of the report and that is against a 52-week range of $28.89 to $85.90.  Keep in mind that Sears shares are down from $65.00 as recently as May 1 but the price the day before (April 30) was only $53.78.  Volatility rules the roost here, and maybe the short interest of 10.55 million shares too (over 8-days to cover ratio).

Another more broad issue is that The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) stubbed its toe this week as the stock is down by more than 2% from its pre-earnings level.  Investors were hoping that it is doing better along with a slight housing recovery or bottoming-out.  Its stock was initially down about 3% closer to $48 after the earnings report against a 52-week trading range of $28.13 to $52.88.

Thursday is set up to be an interesting day for large retail earnings.  Wal-Mart could be a wild card in either direction.

JON C. OGG