• Feb 01 traded 125,300 shares and closed at $14.59
• Jan 31 traded 58,300 shares and closed at $14.25
• Jan 30 traded 33,400 shares and closed at $14.28
• Jan 27 traded 16,200 shares and closed at $14.20
• Jan 26 traded 400 shares and closed at $13.50
• Jan 25 traded 1,300 shares and closed at $13.59

We said it before and we will say it again… This ETF owns no shares of Facebook as of yet.  It will have to after the Facebook IPO but it does not now.  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) owns shares but barely rose today.  Affiliates of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) own shares, and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) owns shares.  The social media company only has a halo-effect around the theme of social media.

Facebook is and was one of our Top 17 IPOs For 2012, but so was Twitter, Living Social and Yelp.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) closed up 6.4% at $76.98 solely on being a rival and Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) rose 16% to $12.39 due to its being north of 10% of Facebook’s revenues.

What is so funny is that even FriendFinder Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN), the adult-themed social networking site and one of the worst IPOs of modern time, rose solely because of the social media halo.  That gain was 16% to $1.33 against a 52-week range (actually under a year) of $0.51 to $10.01.

The one business development company which does own Facebook shares is GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC).  Its shares have risen since the impending filing was telegraphed last Friday and the stock rose by over 7% to $18.51 today.

This is called the Halo-effect if there ever was one.

Facebook’s full IPO details are here.

JON C. OGG

• The 17 Most Important IPOs to Watch in 2012.
• The 24/7 Wall St. 2012 Model Dividend portfolio
• Bankruptcy, liquidation, delisting and all… Here is a list of ten stocks that are not expected to survive 2012.
• Major semiconductors and expected price performance of leaders in 2012.
• Top Oil & Gas stocks with expected price performance in 2012.

One firm gave what looks and feels like an outrageous possibility: a 50% drop from the peak in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares.

Jim Cramer’s top four of the thirty DJIA picks are AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) and Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT). FULL SUMMARY

A Doug Kass call was made for E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) to be acquired, even though it all but killed any M&A prospects.

Barron’s gave ten stocks it sees as its favorite picks in 2012, and the trend here is based upon value stocks and dividend stocks rather than aggressive growth stocks.

Molycorp. Inc. (NYSE: MCP) received a wishy-washy outlook concerns from top analyst for this year.

3 Groups of small and mid-cap stock picks expecting huge upside in 2012:

Small & Mid-Cap Stocks With 50% Upside In 2012 (OIS, OI, ROSE, WBC, CIE)
Small Caps With 50% Upside in 2012 (TEN, WNR, APO, SNV, MTZ)
Small Caps With Over 50% Stock Upside in 2012 (PNK, CDXS, VVUS, SCMR)

A consensus breakdown of top analyst stock picks for biotech in 2012. Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) was noted with having more than 40% upside at the time, but that was literally seen in one day this last week.  Three top medical technology picks in 2012 from Zacks Investment Research were Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX), Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG). and St. Jude Medical, Inc. (NYSE: STJ).

Eight nations with active ETFs, closed-end funds, and ADRs which may benefit from credit rating upgrades in 2012.

JON C. OGG

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) was Jim Cramer’s first pick of the week, with its higher dividend and slightly better share discount to peak prices being noted as the reason.  The $4 billion break-up fee may have taken out too much from the value and the carrier’s iPhone business has held up better than many would have expected.

Read Also: Modified Methodology Predicts 12% DJIA Gain In 2012 to 13,678

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) was Jim Cramer’s top pick for the DJIA stocks on Friday.  His reason is not defense as much as it is the 787 Dreamliner’s slow start and secular growth driver ahead,  Cramer touted a huge order backlog in other planes which have already been developed years ago and showed how it has so much pricing power in the Airbus duopoly that AMR was even given permission to honor its pending aircraft purchases while AMR is in bankruptcy.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was touted by Jim Cramer as one of the top DJIA picks for 2012.  Cramer sees more than 10% upside, but that is in-line with street estimates and some analysts are even more positive than Cramer.  Cramer sees the recent dividend hike sooner than expected as having been one catalyst and improved and diversified core business metrics.

Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT) was picked by Cramer in the middle of the week after a positive performance of about 17% in 2011 and with its 3.1% dividend yield.  The value he sees is in this long pending break-up of the company because it is too large and diverse in food for the street to grasp right now.  This is even though he called it a no-man’s stock that is neither appealing to growth nor value investors right now.

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JON C. OGG

Among the problems cited are the Solyndra blow-up, even though the Exelon (NYSE: EXC) business should be assured. Two issues Cramer cited were that Germany was something to the tune of 46% of 2010 business and France was another 14%. Cramer noted that these countries may be far less able to continue subsidizing solar panels when they have to recapitalize the banks.

We have dug around on our own this year trying to get the percentages of the current business and Europe does actually seem to be less than it was in 2010. The problem is that it is still massive and we have been unable to come up with any hopeful scenario that makes it look like First Solar can recapture its former glory.

About all that investors can hope for is that insider buying hit the tape on Thursday evening but that may be from shares surrendered and with options. The prior insiders buying shares has done nothing, other than generate losses for the insiders.

We would also bring up yet another dogging of First Solar that took place this week: Ticonderoga Securities cut the official First Solar rating down to SELL from an already cautious Neutral rating. The new price target assigned was $40.00.

We also cannot help but worry about the expanded Congressional inquiry is expanding to First Solar and SunPower (NASDAQ: SPWRA) as republicans are requesting loan guarantee details.

All investors can hope for here is that Jim Cramer being negative and that the other issues have been priced into the stock and then some. It is way too early in the alternative energy cycle for solar companies to try to sell themselves as value stocks. It used to be that solar stocks went up when oil went up, and that was why we have called solar stocks nothing more than leveraged bets on oil. Unfortunately, solar goes down when the price of oil goes up or down now.

If First Solar can meet its 2010 earnings estimates, it barely trades at 5-times expected earnings. At issue is that no one wants to believe the “E” in the P/E ratio in First Solar and the rest of the solar sector. This is a classic case of where value stocks become value traps.

First Solar closed down 0.4% at $56.85 and the 52-week trading range is $53.05 to $175.45. Shares were indicated down another 1% or so in the after-hours trading session.

Guggenheim Solar (NYSE: TAN) is the pure play solar and it actually closed up over 1% at $3.46, but to show just how bad the carnage is the 52-week trading range is $2.84 to $9.34.

JON C. OGG

Credit Suisse’s Satya Kumar downgraded the entire solar sector weighting to Market Weight from Overweight, but the price targets are far more damning than the rating cut might indicate.  Last night’s comments of caution from Jim Cramer on First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) were mostly chart related, but he also pointed to the pressure of pricing and subsidies.

Credit Suisse went very cautious on the solar cycle on supply growth and subsidy concerns.  New cell capacity is being added at a current monthly rate of 2 Gigawatts per month in 4Q10 and how the top 20 producers aim for production hikes of 50% in 2011 while there is expected to be only “flattish market for demand in 2011.”  New entrants are also coming on-line and factory utilization may fall from 2011′s first quarter.  All this points to price declines.  As a result, Kumar expects solar stocks will likely stay under pressure.

What is interesting further despite all the negativity, Kumar notes that the firm is not turning secularly negative as it believes that falling solar prices will continue to drive more penetration and that should open up opportunities to reinvest at a later date.  Today’s call is more cyclical than secular, near-term rather than the end-game, based upon supply growth causing a period of stock weakness.  The report even hedges a bit noting that investors could even witness near-term rallies in the sector as the stocks are near-term oversold and as investor sentiment is bearish. Cash grants in the U.S. are set to expire in 2010 with a lame duck session before the Republican-controlled House takes over next year.  Other concerns revolve around China-inflation fears and fresh fears about E.U. debt blow-ups.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) Cut to Neutral from Outperform; new price target is $127.50 and trimmed estimates in CY11 from $8.80 to $8.50 EPS.  Shares are down 3.5% at $125.15.

Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) Cut to Neutral from Outperform; slashed price target to $21 from $36.  Shares are down 5.9% at $22.30.

JA Solar Holdings (NASDAQ: JASO) Cut to Underperform from Neutral; slashed price target to $6 from $11.50.  Shares are down 7.7% at $7.24.

GT Solar International, Inc.(NASDAQ: SOLR) Cut to Neutral from Outperform; cut price target to $9 from $11.  Shares are down almost 9% at $7.64.

ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) Cut to Neutral from Outperform; slashed price target to $9.50
from $16.00.  Shares are down 8.6% at $8.98.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) Cut to Underperform from Neutral; price target cut to $6.75 from $9.00.  Shares are down 10% at $7.50.

On MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR), Credit Suisse believes that the company’s exposure to semiconductor operations should limit the downside.

To illustrate just how harsh the comments and trend is, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSE: TAN), formerly the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF (TAN), is down 3% at $7.36.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

A bear raid is coming and the short sellers will attack this high-multiple stock.  The charges are not the issue because they are small, but these involve revenue recognition issues back to 2007.  That is not cool.

A key issue we had been that management chose to report the SEC and accounting issues effectively upon the closure of the Lavazza deal, which is a no-no  in our book.

Green Mountain shares recovered 0.4% to $31.19 today in regular trading, but shares are down over 2% at $30.50 after the Cramer bash.

Keep these levels in mind.  The low on Tuesday was $30.55, and the high was $32.18.  Shares hit $32.44 today but that could not hold and the stock closed at $31.19.  The 52-week range is $19.87 to $37.97, and that high was just hit this week.

JON C. OGG

On Tuesday night’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer decided he wanted to be the highest ax as far as analyst earnings expectations.  Cramer’s new target is $325.00 per share.  With earnings consensus at $17.50 per share in earnings for the year, Cramer is at $22.00 per share in earnings for the year.  His 14.8-times earnings estimate of the S&P 500 Index is how he came up with the $325.00 price target.

If you look at our own REAL TIME 500 of the real-time market caps of American titan companies, Apple is now the #2 stock by market cap behind #1 ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) by more than $60 billion in market cap, but it is worth almost $30 billion more than #3 Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT).

So now Cramer has the highest earnings estimate on the street.  The problem is that he is far shy of being the highest price target.  The mean target is $334+ and the highest price target is $400.00 on Apple.  MarketWatch even has a video saying why Apple will be a $1,000 stock by the year 2015.  The perma-bulls are hard to get rid of, and so far they have been right.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

There are four solid fresh data points that argue against the notion of a real double-dip recession.  First, we gave 15 safety nets that are out there showing it is time to rethink the double-dip recession.  Secondly, Mike Tarsala over at Thomson Reuters has a quick and very detailed audio video showing that there have only really been 3 real double-dip recession scenarios in the last 160 years, with effectively none of the big catalysts in place today for a true double-dip recession.

Many of you will not want to hear this, but Jim Cramer has only helped to give a boost to the view on stocks.  Cramer said this week that the notion of a double-dip had gone too far, and he said stocks have seen their lows for the year.  This morning, the chief economist of The Conference Board showed that there are no signs of a “double dip” recession, although slower growth is expected for the rest of this year.

In the last eight trading days, the DJIA has risen almost 800 points from lows to highs today.  We have also seen the 30-Year Long Bond yield go from under 3.85% up to 4.10% in the same period, at a time when corporate and sovereign debt markets are seeing more bond issuances.

Late 2010 and into 2011 might not be the greatest period compared to some economic recoveries of the past.  To many it will still feel like recessionary trends are still there.  For the economy as a whole, the notion of a real double-dip recession is looking less and less likely.

JON C. OGG

Each is laid out in detail below.

BP plc (NYSE: BP) might as well hire someone named Valdez to run the disaster here, because this Gulf oil spill is only getting worse and worse than expected.  Now, The Lanier Law Firm is suing it in a class action suit alleging that BP, Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG), Cameron International Corporation (NYSE: CAM) and Halliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) were negligent in failing to properly operate, inspect, and maintain the Deepwater Horizon rig.  BP’s US listed ADRs were at $60.00 just on April 21, and by Friday’s close the stock went out at $52.15 and it traded about 60 million shares.  This drop has caused a technical violation on the charts as the 50-day moving average is $56.98 and the 200-day moving average is $54.66.  This weekend’s edition Barron’s said that BP and RIG have been overly punished.  Here is the latest on the spill map.

Continental Airlines, Inc. (NYSE: CAL) and UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA) have reportedly agreed to the share exchange ratios for their proposed no-premium merger.  This is one of those “good for them, bad for you and me” scenarios where they get to ultimately fire thousands of overlapping job positions, consolidate providers, and simultaneously be able to charge more and more where they see fit for airline tickets and all the nickel-and-dime service fees.

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) had a huge week after the FDA has finally approved Provenge for advanced prostate cancer.  Shares hit a high of $57.67 on Friday, but closed down at $54.06 (still up 7.7%) on over 46 million shares traded.  We gave a detailed 2010 outlook for Dendreon this weekend showing the ups and downs, the analysts, the charts, and more at BioHealthInvestor.com.

E*TRADE Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) may have looked or felt bad from the Citadel 172 million share secondary offering at $1.75 per share. If underwriters exercise that 25 million share overallotment option, Citadel will own about 26.5% of E*TRADE.  Some dilution is good and some dilution is bad, but this was good dilution.  Investors want Citadel out of there, particularly so that E*TRADE can eventually get back the rights to its order flow that Citadel has such an influence over.  More importantly, Citadel is a hurdle for any would-be takeover and there is still chatter that one or both of the two giant competing online-discount brokers would want to buy it out.  As long as Citadel is this dominant, the deal is much more difficult to do.  This hit $1.99 last Monday after a $1.90 close, yet shares closed down almost at the lows of the week at $1.69.  This will be one to watch, particularly since it fell well under that secondary offering price.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) had its annual meeting this last week.  24/7 Wall St. got an exclusive interview with Chairman & CEO Jeff Immelt, and in this interview Immelt committed to a higher dividend, discussed the GE portfolio and spin-offs, expected hurdles for return on capital and more.  The issues we discussed are long-term issues that will still be relevant in a week, month, and longer.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is the cover story at Barron’s this weekend.  The article is titled “Liftoff at J&J” and the thesis is that earning will get a lift in coming years from the economy, its product pipeline, and a great balance sheet.  The bearish case that J&J is fairly valued at the current mid-$60′s price is a big mistake, and the financial bible article notes that shares should be up 10% to 20% within a year or two.  This will probably be good for up to a 2% pop on Monday morning, at least in a static market scenario.

National Fuel Gas Co. (NYSE: NFG) was brought on CNBC’s MAD MONEY in an interview with Jim Cramer on Friday, and he called this one the best nat-gas play you’ve never heard of.  It has a massive upside in the Marcellus Shale play that is underfollowed and almost unknown.  The company has raised dividends many years and it has many operations around natural gas via transport, exploration, utility, and production.  Cramer called this the most undervalued nat-gas play in Marcellus.  The 52-week range is $30.56 to $54.42; shares closed down 0.6% at $52.02 Friday and traded up 1.1% to $52.58 in Friday’s after-hours session.  If the weakness in oil and gas doesn’t clip the sector endlessly, this could open up a percent higher or so.

Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) is one to watch.  Now that Bono and Jonathan Rubinstein have showed how cheaply they will buckle at a $5.70 takeout price versus a 52-week range of $3.65 to $18.09, there is always a chance that Palm could get a competing offer from a competing suitor.  This is pure speculation of course, but not based solely on guesswork nor on hope and prayer.  There is an optionszone.com options trade set-up here from yours truly that shows a speculative bet.  There are investments, there are trades, and there are bets… this one is the latter, with a low-premium and a high-risk and high-reward possibility.

Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP) has already been a winner with shares up big in the last 3 months.  Shares closed up 4.5% at $3.95 on Friday, but shares rose b 8.6% to $4.29 in the after-hours session on more than 900,000 shares.  Westernbank Puerto Rico was seized by the FDIC on Friday with about $11.9 billion in assets; Banco Popular agreed to acquire Westernbank’s deposits and about $9.4 billion of its assets, with the FDIC keeping the rest for future sale.  The old 52-week high is $4.23, so this could mark a 52-week high.

POZEN, Inc. (NASDAQ: POZN) isn’t about standing around and looking cool in night clubs.  Shares closed down 10% on Friday at $10.85, but the shares rifled higher in after hours trading after the FDA approved the its arthritis treatment Vimovo.  Pozen is now due a $20 million milestone payment from AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN), its marketing partner on the drug.  Shares went out in the after-hours session up 21% at $13.15 on over 5.9 million shares combined in regular and after-hours trading.  The prior 52-week range is $5.16 to $12.68, so watch to see if the 52-week will hold here.

SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) is far from the largest company and far from the most market-moving stock on deck for earnings, but the earnings are due Tuesday morning.  If any single stock on deck is a true cult stock, this is it.  Shares closed at $1.18 on Friday and the 52-week high is only $1.22.  The company already gave some guidance but the outlook here on new cars with conversions and sign-ups is going to be crucial here.  Estimates from Thomson Reuters appear to be roughly a break-even quarter on $671.3 million in revenues.

Our technical analysis affiliate is Adam Hewison of INO, and he has a short and quick audio-video presentation showing a lot of caution here on the DJIA.  This lists 11,254 as the problem area of the DJIA based upon a 61% retracement, and that 50% retracement is down all the way around 10,350… Still, Hewison is taking more of a ‘tread carefully’ approach versus a ‘bail and short’ strategy.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

Sponsor: 26 Cheap Stocks to Sell – Cheap stocks have been on a tear recently, but nine out of ten stocks are circling the drain!

These were Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT).  Cramer may have skipped over a few key issues as immaterial that are very material, but there is also a trader’s notion to consider for ideas when stocks and sectors do not act on good news because of unrelated issues in the short-term as we covered today in our own Retail Business Daily piece this afternoon.

Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) had what Cramer said was “a killer quarter” with blowout earnings.  He said this opened barely up and then went south before turning and running up 4% to over $46…

The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE: TJX) was one that Cramer said “massively raised guidance” after 12% comparable store gains.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) is one Cramer has long loved and it ran from around $175 at the open up to around $179 after the European markets closed.  He even went as far as saying Greece has nothing to with Goldman Sachs (very arguable) but that Goldman Sachs knows how to have predicted Greece’s woes and probably makes money on it.

EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is a play that Cramer said is changing from gas that has nothing to do with Greece either.  This one opened around $104 but went to $107 after traders forgot about Greece.

Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN) was one that Cramer said was given a huge UBS target upgrade on.  This barely rose and opened around $81 before it ran to $85 as traders forgot Greece and ran into the strong stocks.

Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) was one that Cramer said guided up earnings about 20% from its previous targets which opened flat today and ran about $1.00 after Greece’s woes went in the rear view mirror.

Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) is one where Cramer said it is “finally getting it together” and posted a huge guidance raise, also noted in our Retail Business Daily.   Cramer noted how this was unchanged at the open and recovered about $1.00 as the Greek news faded and as European markets closed.

Many of these stocks were covered in our own Retail Business Daily today and that showed exactly why so many of the companies did not run up on what sounded like great news.  There are two sides to Cramer’s rants tonight.

First is the problem with his points.  Cramer did not really admit anything about these “eye opening results” being so stellar was because the March 2009 period used as the comparison was the peak of the panic selling and a time when shoppers were trying to buy things like non-perishable food, gold, bullets, and water in case we went into the abyss.  And Cramer omitted the notion that while Greece as a standalone issue may be the tip of the iceberg in the financial world over governments, budgets, credit quality, and a few hundred other macro-economic issues.  There is also the issue that many of these stocks have seen major rallies in 2010 and even larger recoveries through 2009.  When these are going through 52-week highs and have seen such exaggerated gains, one of the puzzling reasons that they aren’t running as much is easy to see.  Investors in “the new normal” do not want to chase what has already gone through the roof and into the stratosphere.

But there is a positive take here.  Tonight was not about stock picks.  These were geared to be shown as examples of what to look for on days where international macroeconomic news (and perhaps macroeconomic noise) gets in the way of good news.  The mission here was not about these seven stock but on how to spot others and when to buy them based upon the stock fundamentals rather than over the international noise.

Longer-term may be a different issue, but money is money and many of these did show significant recovery moves on an intra-day basis.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about dividend trends, analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG