Our take is worse than income being lower than expectations. Dendreon said that net product revenues fell to $67.6 million, compared to $82.0 million for the same quarter a year ago. Dendreon is supposed to be seeing sales decline marginally now and then rise through time, but this is down a sharp 17.6% year over year. Here are the total revenues in each of the past four quarterly reports, in order of most recent first: $85.493 million, $77.971 million, $79.992 million and $82.074 million. Compare $67.6 million to these and you will see that sales were the worst over the entire quarterly cycle course of 2012.

Thomson Reuters was calling for -$0.48 per share in earnings and sales of $80.15 million. Some analysts were calling for sales up in the $85 million and $86 million range. The long and short of the matter is that it is just far too soon for Dendreon’s sales cycle to already be petering out.

Dendreon claims to have added 33 net new accounts in the first quarter. This brings the total number of accounts that have infused to 835. Dendreon is claiming that it can reduce its cost of goods sold to less than 50% of net product revenue in the third quarter 2013 at its current forecast levels.

You might expect that the reaction is bad, and that is an understatement. Dendreon’s stock price is down more than 15% to $3.99, against a 52-week range of $3.69 to $9.34. Note that the market cap here is down to $711 million. With the company losing so much money, it will be very hard to get excited that it had $337.3 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term and long-term investments at the end of the quarter. Keep in mind that this balance compared to $429.8 million as of December 31, 2012, and that translates to a quarterly cash burn rate of about $92.5 million.

Our take here is simple, even if the end game is uncertain. Dendreon’s cash burn rate puts it at financial implosion in less than a year. The company claims that its cost of goods sold will be much lower, but if it cannot generate a substantial amount higher in Provenge sales, then the company is going have to try to save itself by selling itself. Unfortunately for shareholders, this might be a takeunder, unless Provenge proves to be potent against other forms of cancer than just late-stage prostate cancer.

Cree said that its third-quarter profit rose more than 100% on strong lighting sales, but the stock is lower based on sales coming in light (no pun intended). This is becoming a duel between being in value stocks and turnaround stocks.

You will see an analyst war below and how this is affecting Cree and other LED stock rivals:

• Needham & Co. raised its price target to $63 from $60 after the report.
• Stern Agee maintained a Buy rating but raised its estimates due to momentum in Cree’s lighting products sales. This firm raised its price target to $66 from $64 on Wednesday morning.
• Canaccord Genuity said that it has no changes from Cree and has maintained its Hold rating along with its $49 price target.
• Gabelli & Co. took the other end of the spectrum and downgraded Cree to Hold from Buy, now that shares have risen so much from the lows of 2012.
• Another firm, called Northland Securities, maintained its Outperform rating and raised its price target to $63 from $50.

Investors need to recall that Cree just recently hit a 52-week high right before its earnings, and that the stock is up more than 150% from its 2012 low. This morning we see Cree trading down more than 7% at about $53.25 in active trading, against a 52-week range of $22.25 to $58.00.

Veeco Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: VECO) also competes in the LED space, and this one is down more than 1% at $36.98 in thin volume trading right after the open. The stock closed at $37.51 on Tuesday, and the 52-week range is $26.15 to $40.34.

Aixtron SE (NASDAQ: AIXG) is the European player here in the LED sector, and its shares have been very volatile and have not recovered the same as Cree. Aixtron ADRs are down close to 1%, at $13.68 against a 52-week range of $11.21 to $19.16.

Rubicon Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: RBCN) is another player we like to feature despite its market cap being only $141 million. Analysts have called on this one to double in share price in recent calls. Rubicon shares are down more than 2% at $6.27 so far.

Caterpillar managed to post a profit of $880 million, or $1.31 per share, for the first quarter. That is down almost 45% from a year ago as sales were down about 17% at $13.2 billion. Note that Caterpillar already had warned of a challenging environment in 2013. Dealers have lowered inventory by $700 million in anticipation of weakness, and Caterpillar’s full-year guidance for 2013 was down to $7.00 in earnings per share on sales of $57 billion to $61 billion. The prior forecast was $7.00 to $9.00 per share on $60 billion to $68 billion in revenue.

Caterpillar has decided to use the share price weakness to its advantage and said that it will repurchase up to $1 billion in its shares during the second quarter. Again, we expected weakness, based on the economic reports being weak and due to how the stock price had been. The good news is that things were not even worse, which is why Caterpillar shares are up 1.2% at $81.40 in early Monday trading.

Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has many perceived overlaps with Caterpillar, but its stock was doing better due to agricultural demand. Deere is up 0.2% at $83.60 on Monday, but that is still way above its 52-week low of $69.51. Caterpillar shares are only about $3 above their 52-week low. Joy Global Inc. (NYSE: JOY) is where we see the real ties to caterpillar in mining equipment. Its stock is down 0.4% at $53.98, and it has a 52-week range of $47.69 to $73.10. Our one concern on Joy Global is that it barely one-tenth of the size of Caterpillar.

Our largest concern is in the metals and mining markets. These shares all have been so weak that we think much of the bad news is already starting to get priced in here, as China is slowing again and as Russia and other emerging markets are having sporadic growth issues (or worse). What is driving the concern is that a bottoming out may take much longer than expected now. Investors looking to pile into metals and mining may have a lot more volatility and timing pain than they may have seen in the past as gold mining and other mining operations are being idled or slowed due to demand and price issues.

Take United States Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) as an example, with its drop of 1.3% to $16.17 so far on Monday. With a two-week range of $16.01 to $29.25, the share price is already telegraphing and pricing in weakness ahead. The concern that we face now is that there may be no sudden recovery. If the pricing here remains, then the stock market may be signaling that things will be weak for the rest of 2013. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is still down after its earnings, despite a tiny gain so far on Monday. At $8.10, its 52-week range is $7.90 to $10.01.

Even a more solid outfit like Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) is down 0.6% at $42.13, against a 52-week range of $34.23 to $48.60. This steel giant now may have more caution ahead as well, although management has historically been very good at managing to mitigate weakness by adding to strengths during leaner times.

Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE: RIO) is a mining and processing giant when it comes to anything metal coming out of the ground. Some were hoping that bad news was priced in, but Caterpillar is perhaps one drag this morning as Rio Tinto ADRs are down 1.2% at $44.15, against a 52-week range of $41.59 to $60.45. Ditto for Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), where shares are down 0.45% at $28.10, against a 52-week range of $27.24 to $43.65. Take a look at any gold miner out there and you can see real weakness over the course of 2013.

China’s growth is slowing and it already has empty cities built up that remain empty. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has just spoken his concerned over the slowdown seen in Russia. Growth in India has been disappointing, and now we have seen that cement firms have decided to lower their capital spending plans, based on weak growth prospects. Fears have grown that even Brazil is not immune to weak China growth indications.

Caterpillar shares may be positive after a weak earnings report because it was expected. Unfortunately, its guidance being this low is a signal on the broader global scale for mining and metals that we are more unlikely to see any sudden snap back or quick turnaround later in 2013. If we do not see one in late 2013, then that is likely to lower expectations even for 2014.

Apple Inc.’s quarterly profit is projected to shrink for the first time in a decade, hurt by new products with lower profit margins and slower growth in iPhone sales.

Fourteen analysts have reduced their estimates for Apple in the past four weeks, as shares in the world’s most valuable technology company continue their slide from a September record high. Competition from Samsung Electronics Co. (005930) is also weighing on the stock, and pressure is mounting for Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook to introduce hit products to reignite sales

An earnings report tomorrow may show that fiscal second- quarter net income declined 18 percent to $9.53 billion, or $10.02 a share, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue is projected to show a rise of 8 percent to $42.4 billion, the slowest growth rate since 2009.

American Express plans to raise its dividend from the current $0.20 per quarter to $0.23, beginning in the second quarter. The company expects to buy back $3.2 billion in stock over the course of 2013 and up to an additional $1 billion in the first quarter of next year.

The company’s CEO said:

Cardmember spending grew 6 percent (7 percent adjusted for foreign currency translations) and we saw a modest increase in loans outstanding. Revenue from annual cardmember fees was also up from a year ago, reflecting the value our customers see in their relationship with American Express. Credit indicators continued to be excellent. We made good headway throughout the business and continue to see very encouraging customer response to initiatives like our reloadable prepaid products and loyalty marketing initiatives that are expanding our footprint into newer segments of the market. Progress on cost control initiatives allowed us to continue to make investments to grow the business, while holding operating expenses well within our target of less than 3 percent annual growth for the next two years.

Last quarter American Express announced a restructuring of the company that included the firing of 5,400 employees and a pre-tax charge of $400 million to pay for the restructuring.

For the 2013 fiscal year, consensus estimates call for EPS of $4.76 on revenue of $33.33 billion. Today’s report from American Express did not include any guidance.

Shares are down about 1.1% at $64.13 in after-hours trading today. The 52-week range is $53.02 to $67.76. Prior to today’s release Thomson/Reuters had a consensus price target of around $67.00 on the company’s shares.

Alcoa beat earnings but was light on revenue. The company tried to maintain again that there would be 7% growth this year. The good news is that things actually are improving at the aluminum giant. The bad news is that this remains a restructuring story. Another reason we think that this company is overrated is because other companies have unseated its dominance.

Having a market cap of almost $9 billion hardly seems worthy of being one of 30 members of the DJIA. And with a share price less than $9, it is also a weakling on the DJIA, as the key investor index is price-weighted rather than market cap-weighted like the S&P 500.

Alcoa shares are down 1.4% at $8.27, but frankly the report seemed like one that, with the stock down about 5% so far in 2013, should have been good enough. That being said, Alcoa is no harbinger of earnings season, or when it is, then it is a coincidental reading rather than a leading indicator.

If you want companies that will beat earnings, Merrill Lynch offered a fresh list of eight large companies that it feels should beat earnings expectations during this earnings season.

Juniper Networks Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) is down more than 6%, Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is down nearly 4%, Riverbed Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: RVBD) is down nearly 3.5%, Fortinet Inc. (NASDAQ: FTNT) is down nearly 3.5% and Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) is down about 3.1%. Even Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU), which jumped about 10% yesterday, is down nearly 2% this morning.

F5 blamed the cuts on slowing sales in North America and its Europe, Middle East and Africa region. The company also noted that sales to the U.S. government were down “significantly” compared with the year-ago quarter.

The bloodbath at F5 has the shares down more than 19% at $72.69, after posting a new 52-week low of $71.95. The 52-week high is $139.20.

Among the best examples of this problem are badly damaged retailers like J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP). The company already knows its first-quarter results, or at least the great majority of them. There is only a week left in the quarter. The information certainly has been passed on to the board. This board may have decided already the fate of CEO Ron Johnson because of these numbers. That is a great deal to be kept from stockholders who might sell the balance of their holdings if only they knew the details as well.

J.C. Penney is not alone as a candidate for a bad earnings surprise. Based on recent history, some of the Web 2.0 companies qualify, in particular Groupon Inc. (NASDAQ: GRPN). Earnings forecasts for the online coupon business are always a crapshoot. As is the case with J.C. Penney, management and the board are privy to results that are nearly complete before a quarter’s end.

The list of public company candidates for early disclosure is hundreds long, or dozens among America’s largest corporations, which stretch from badly damaged Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), which suddenly wrote off $5 billion because of mistakes in its buyout of Autonomy, to General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) with its information about its money-losing European operations that have compromised global earnings for years.

Until the federal government takes up the matter of when managements and boards have vital information, and when that information is given to shareholders, these shareholders will be at a tremendous risk of posting trading losses well after a quarter ends.

The company reported that sales of The Hunger Games trilogy were significantly lower than expected in its most recent quarter. With another film coming up, investors have to wonder if there is a likely tie in here for Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF), as it is the production house behind the movies.

The company is now looking for its earnings to be only $1.10 to $1.30 per share, and for sales to be down to a range of $1.75 billion to $1.8 billion. Its prior earnings target was $1.40 to $1.60 per share on sales of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion. While this doesn’t sound too bad this time around, earnings projections are now down by almost 50% from as recently as September.

It was going to be hard to compare to the strength from a year ago, but overall sales were down by 19% and Scholastic has now lowered its annual targets for the second time in the last four months or so. Scholastic investors have seen this before, with big swings higher from Harry Potter leading to big booms, only to be followed by big busts. One other issue affecting sales is that school districts have delayed purchases as they have turned more toward training and digital investments.

Scholastic’s share price is down almost 14% at $26.75 in early trading on Thursday, versus a 52-week trading range of $25.03 to $38.49.

We are not seeing any trading indications that would signal a major change in shares of Lions Gate Entertainment, but at $22.75 we would note that shares are up about 200% from when Carl Icahn got involved and then bailed out. The huge boost has been from The Hunger Games. With another film coming up, it is hard to not wonder if investors will look at the 52-week range of $11.26 to $23.45 and decide to take at least some profits here.

In its filing Harvest provided a laundry list of problems related to its financial reporting:

• “[C]ertain errors related to our incorrect capitalization of certain lease maintenance costs”
• “[C]ertain internal selling, general and administrative costs”
• “[A]n error in the presentation of certain cash flow items”
• A determination “that certain long-lived assets have been impaired”
• “[C]ertain errors … that will require the company to revise and possibly restate its financial statements for certain periods in 2010, 2011, and 2012.

Harvest also said it expects to post a net loss of $9.6 million ($0.26 per share) for the 2012 fiscal year. Worst of all, the company’s auditors have said that the audit report “will include a going concern qualification.”

Shares are 34% at $3.61 in a previous range of $4.93 to $10.83.