Posts related to ‘Emerging Markets’

Russian ADRs Take Off (MTL)(LUKOY)

Tickerspy’s Russian Stock and ADR Index is up close to 5% as the market goes into its close.  Among the biggest movers was LUKOIL (OTC: LUKOY), an oil and gas company that was up over 6.5% today.  Mechel OAO (NYSE: MTL), a mining company, was also up over 6.5%.

Russian oil and mining stocks were up today largely due to the effects of this weekend’s G-20 meetings, where world leaders agreed to continue their fiscal and monetary stimulus until global economic recovery.  This news gave investors confidence that there will be demand for industrial commodities in the coming quarters.  This has had the effect of pushing up the value of Russia’s ruble again the dollar, along with Russia MICEX index, as oil and metals mining represent a significant portion of that country’s economy.  

Garrett W. McIntyre

Posted on: November 9, 2009 – 3:25 pm in ETF, Emerging Markets, International Markets, Metals, , , , , , , , , ,

AES Debate: China’s Infrastructure Grab (AES)

bull-and-bear-imageChina is at it again buying key infrastructure access.  AES Corp. (NYSE: AES) disclosed on Friday, along with earnings, that the company was raising significant cash.  This is a capital raise which also may ‘raise some eyebrows’ because the company is selling a 15% stake to China’s sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corporation.  The stake sale will bring in $1.58 billion for expansion of global projects.  AES also announced a Letter of Intent to sell a 35% minority stake in its global wind generation business valued at $571 million on top of the stake sale.
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Posted on: November 7, 2009 – 11:59 am in China, Emerging Markets, Infrastructure, Mergers and Buy Outs, Private Equity, Regulation, Utilities,

Yet Higher Gold Prices Cometh (GLD, GDX, ABX, GG)

Gold ImageYesterday’s surprise move from India that sent gold through the roof to almost $1,085.00 per ounce was a game changing event in gold.  Many technical analysts and chartists were looking for, or at least hoping for, a further consolidation in the price of the shiny yellow stuff.  Yet now that appears to not be the case.  This has broad ramifications for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX); and it also of course will help push top-line and bottom line improvements to the likes of two of the huge players of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) and for Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG).  This morning we received an audio-visual slide show technical analysis presentation from one of our affiliates INO.  This was by Adam Hewison, who we have noted was making a big gold call for a move to $1,100 and then $1,200 or even higher back when gold prices were consolidating and well under the $1,000 mark.
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Posted on: November 4, 2009 – 11:09 am in Charts, Commodities, ETF, Emerging Markets, Metals, Technical Analysis, , , ,

52-Week High Club

Banco Bradesco Sa (NYSE: BBD) hit a early high of $20.79 today, carried by the hype surrounding South American banks over the past few weeks.  The company is also undoubtably benefiting from the “Olympics effect”.

Jefferies Group (NYSE: JEF) hit a yearly high of $28.03 following news that the company had launched its first ETF.

Och-Ziff Capital Management (NYSE: OZH) hit a yearly high of $12.74 following Friday’s announcement that the company’s flagship fund was up for the ninth month in a row.  

Venoco, Inc. (NYSE: VQ) hit a yearly high of $12.12, surging over 13% after the company announced that it had successfully sold $150 in senior notes in order to repay debt.

Garrett W. McIntyre

Posted on: October 5, 2009 – 4:04 pm in Banking, Emerging Markets, Financial Stocks, Oil & Gas, Telecom, , , ,

Brazil Olympic Stock Plays Feeling Lofty (EWZ, BRF, BZF, BBD, BRP, BTM, BAK, PDA, EBR, ABV, ELP, SID, CPL, ERJ, GFA, GGB, GOL, ITUB, NETC, PBR, TAM, TNE, TSP, VALE, VIV, VCP)

Rio Olympic ImageInvesting into emerging markets where the Olympics are headed is supposed to be a safe bet, in theory.  Despite a flat close for stocks in the U.S. on Friday, Brazilian shares rose almost across the board Friday after last week’s decision to send the 2016 Summer Olympics to Rio de Janeiro.  It was huge for the iShares MSCI Brazil (NYSE: EWZ) gaining 1.9% to $67.30 ($26.64 to $68.50 is the 52-week range) and the Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: BRF) rose 1.5% to $39.76 (its 52-week range is $23.68 to $40.42).  The WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real (NYSE: BZF) currency ETF rose 0.54% to $25.89.

Outside of the ETF investing, this story becomes one where stocks may still have great growth prospects.  But if you are a value investor or one who does not like to chase stocks when they are close to yearly or all-time highs, then there is a problem.  So many of these stocks are hitting highs or are so close that you have to wonder just how much upside is there.  Using 52-week highs and all-time highs is of course not the only metric for valuations, but you might be surprised as you read through a summary of the major Brazilian stock performances on Friday alone.  Throw in the Brazilian Real currency versus the US Dollar component as these are all ADRs and it adds in yet another element.

Banco Bradesco S.A. (NYSE: BBD) is the huge Brazilian bank and its shares rose 1.8% at $19.94, with a 52-week trading range of $7.40 to $20.20 and an all-time high north of $24.00.

Brasil Telecom Participacoes S.A (NYSE: BRP) is a telecom player in Brazil and its shares rose 2.9% to $52.33, with a 52-week trading range of $22.00 to $53.49 with highs in 2007 and 2008 hitting north of $80.00.

Brasil Telecom S.A. (NYSE: BTM) is a telecommunications services provider whose shares rose 3.3% to $26.28 and its 52-week trading range is $9.49 to $26.55 and it was in the mid-$30’s in early 2008.

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Posted on: October 5, 2009 – 7:01 am in ADR, Commodities, ETF, Economy, Emerging Markets, Entertainment, Financial Stocks, HI/LOW, Infrastructure, Large Cap Stocks, Politics, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

52-Week High Club

3Com Corporation (NASDAQ: COMS) rallies over 6% to $5.39 following a positive earnings release on Thursday.

Aspect Medical Systems (NASDAQ: ASPM) rallies over 55% to $11.91 on news that Covidien had agreed to buy the company for $210 million.

Green Mountain Coffee (NASDAQ: GMCR) rallied over 6% today to $75, leading gains among its coffee-vending peers.

BanColombia S.A. (NSYS: CIB) hit a year high of $42.66 on no news but amid a continuing rally in Latin American bank ADRs.

Greenhill (NYSE: GHL) hits a new yearly high of $88.28 as boutique M&A firms continue to benefit from the instability of larger rivals.  

Garrett W. McIntyre

Posted on: September 28, 2009 – 4:42 pm in ADR, Autos, Banking, Biotech, Commodities, Cult Stock, Emerging Markets, Financial Stocks, Telecom, , , , ,

Bill Gross Sees Tough Times For America

Bull and Bear ImageBill Gross is co-CIO for arguably the most influential bond management firm in the U.S.  PIMCO is the biggest ax in the bond market of the bond management firms, and Gross’ outlook for what lies ahead for America is leaning toward a stark one.  He is looking for slow growth and more government involvement.  He notes in his September outlook that things have changed from the past and will continue to change for maybe a decade or two.  And his scenario of ‘the new normal’ is a boring one…. economies grow very slowly and profits are relatively static.
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Posted on: September 1, 2009 – 1:11 pm in Activist Investor, Economy, Emerging Markets, Politics

China’s Insatiable Energy Deals Only Growing (PTR, XOM, CVX, RDS-B, SNP, CEO, MRO)

oil-well-image1On Monday, the Shanghai Composite went under 2,700 and between Monday and Tuesday is back to lows not seen since May’s end. Technically, it is back in bear market territory now that it has come off 20% from the highs.  But there is one single aspect here which may be the silver lining for China.  As asset prices sink, it is easier for China and its central government to buy more and more of whatever it wants on the cheap.  While the notion that China’s deal making for key assets is not new, the pace at which China is locking in energy supply deals seems to only be increasing. And it is effectively doing it without a single handshake taking place on US soil and without US oil.

After reviewing some of the public deals that China has been making, it is rather obvious that its  appetite to buy and secure more sources of oil and gas is not ending whether China is technically in the 2007 to 2009 recession or not.  If you have what many Westerners believe is a 50-year plan, then overextended Americans, lower commodity prices, and cheaper stocks of key infrastructure and energy players just makes it easier  to buy up oil and gas for all of the energy needed to power the infrastructure for over 1.3 billion people.  China has already spent billions in several bigger public deals and it seems as though the size and the pace is only rising.
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Posted on: September 1, 2009 – 6:01 am in China, Editor's Picks, Emerging Markets, Infrastructure, Mergers and Buy Outs, Oil & Gas, Politics

Petrobras: Gov’t Investment and Venezuela Woes (PBR)

Petrobras LogoPetroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), or what we call Petrobras, has had a busy week.  This stock has recovered handily off of lows from early July, but all summer it has not been able to get above the $45.00 mark for the ADRs.  This week is bringing some pause for concern, even if the developments are likely to go in favor of Petrobras in the long-term.  There is a report of a huge multi-billion injection from the Brazilian government directly into the company, and this is on the heels of a recent refining project in Venezuela seeing a drastic cost increase.
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Posted on: August 27, 2009 – 10:19 am in ADR, Emerging Markets, Oil & Gas,

Can a $4,000 Car Help to Cure GM? (TTM)

General Motors may be closer to getting into cars as cheap as some go-carts.   A report over the weekend in the WSJ noted that GM plans to produce one of the compact cars for $4,000.00 in Asia.  While few details are known, this follows a similar move back in early 2008.  Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM) began a sub-$3,000.00 car via the Tata Nano for close to $2,500.00, and this looks to be a continuation of that move.
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Posted on: August 17, 2009 – 11:03 am in Autos, China, Emerging Markets,

Media Digest 7/2/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   California declared a financial emergency.

Reuters:   An SEC attorney raised concern about a Madoff report in 2004.

Reuters:   Auto parts supplier Lear filed for bankruptcy.

Reuters:   NYC apartment sales are down more than 50%.

Reuters:   Beijing Automotive will bid for Opel.

Reuters:   GM told a judge asset sales was its only option. Read More »

Posted on: July 2, 2009 – 3:04 am in Autos, Banking, China, Compensation, Economy, Emerging Markets, FDA, Internet, Metals, Oil & Gas, Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Does Petrobras Need More Capital? (PBR)

Oil Well ImagePetroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE: PBR), or Petrobras, raised $1 billion in a new note offering this morning for its Petrobras International Finance Co.  Or did it?  We originally had this listed as being an offering of about $500 million earlier, yet now the offering may be as much as $1.2 billion.
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Posted on: July 1, 2009 – 3:30 pm in ADR, Bonds, Emerging Markets, Oil & Gas,

Novel ETF Launch: Islamic Investment Strategy (JVS)

Money Stack ImageIf you said that there are exchange-traded funds for just about everything, that statement is getting closer and closer to accurate than ever.  A new ETF in America is being launched: Javelin Exchange Traded Funds (“JETS”) is launching Dow Jones Islamic Market International Index Fund (NYSE: JVS).  This ETF aims to adhere to centuries-old Islamic beliefs about investing and finance.
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Posted on: July 1, 2009 – 8:58 am in ADR, ETF, Emerging Markets,

Media Digest 6/22/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg.

newspaperReuters:   Airlines are cutting back on first class seating.

Reuters:   Xstrata wants merger talks with mining rival Anglo American.

Reuters:   Employers are cutting 401 (K) plans.

Reuters:   Brand loyalty is being hurt by the recession.

Reuters:   The children of baby boomers may help the US housing market. Read More »

Posted on: June 22, 2009 – 2:55 am in Autos, Banking, Conglomerates, Drug companies, Emerging Markets, Housing, Mergers and Buy Outs, Oil & Gas, Press Digest, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

ETF’s To Short Some BRIC Countries, With Leverage (EPV, JPX, BZQ, SMK)

burning-money-picProShares has just launched four new exchange-traded funds.  While these are not “all” BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China), BRIC investors will now get a couple of more tools to short sell those baskets when they want and with double-leverage.  Today’s launch was of UltraShort MSCI Europe (NYSE: EPV), UltraShort MSCI Pacific ex-Japan (NYSE: JPX), UltraShort MSCI Brazil (NYSE: BZQ), and UltraShort MSCI Mexico Investable Market (NYSE: SMK).  The new ETFs are the first designed to go up when markets go down in Europe, the Pacific Ex-Japan region, Brazil and Mexico.
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Posted on: June 18, 2009 – 11:19 am in ADR, China, ETF, Emerging Markets

Iran and the Myth of Geopolitical Risk in Oil (USO, OIL)

Oil Well ImageLast week, there was more continued media coverage of the death of David Carradine about the weekend elections in Iran.  Yet, here we sit on Monday and there have been riots in the streets of Tehran over the election results.  And the price oil is trading lower today….

The “open and free election” is being questioned.  We are not relying on any reported percentages of who secured which percentage of the vote, particularly since no one really knows which Iranian leader is the one that ultimately calls the shots.  President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won the election, but the opposition protesters are claiming that the vote was a farce due to rigged ballots.  And this comes on the heels of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calling for unity behind Ahmadinejad.
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Posted on: June 15, 2009 – 11:46 am in Emerging Markets, Oil & Gas, Politics, ,

At $70 Oil, Major Oil Stocks Still Look Cheap (COP, XOM, CVX, MUR, PBR, PTR, VLO)

oil-well-image1We keep getting asked a single question from readers and from our own industry and professional contacts: Are Oil Stocks Cheap? There is a very simple answer in today’s markets: Oil stocks look very cheap (if oil is going to stay anywhere near $70.00).  Some of these are our top picks and some are incidental, but the reviewed stocks are ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR), Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE: PTR) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO).  By our measure, some of these major integrated oil and exploration and production stocks are undervalued by 10% to 25%.  Some may be even more undervalued than that in the large-cap and super-cap arenas.

Answering any question of whether a stock or any instrument is cheap does actually require a crystal ball that sees the future for it to be certain beyond a snapshot in time, but if oil stays around these levels then many of the major oil stocks still seem to have more room to run up.  Dare we call this value investing?  This is not a review of every single sector in the oil patch, as we are reviewing these stocks  in groups.
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Posted on: June 12, 2009 – 5:15 am in ADR, Buffett, Emerging Markets, Oil & Gas, Value Investing, , , , , , ,

Another Hedge Fund ETF Launches (MCRO, QAI)

IndexIQ LogoNYSE Euronext has begun trading the IQ Hedge Macro Tracker ETF (NYSE: MCRO), sponsored by IndexIQ Advisors LLC.  This marks the second product by IndexIQ Advisors to list on NYSE Arca after its IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (NYSE: QAI) launched on March 25.
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Posted on: June 9, 2009 – 9:39 am in Bonds, ETF, Emerging Markets, Financial Stocks, Index, REIT, ,

Media Digest 6/8/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   3D is bringing a new dimension to the computer world.

Reuters:   The Supreme Court was asked to block Chrysler sale.

Reuters:   China bankers called for US sales of yuan bonds.

Reuters:   IATA says global airline losses will hit $9 billion.

Reuters:   Soros says China influence growing faster than expected.

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Posted on: June 8, 2009 – 3:00 am in Airlines, Autos, Banking, China, Emerging Markets, Internet, Oil & Gas, PC Companies, Politics, Press Digest, Retail, Turnarounds, Wireless, , , , , , , , ,

Media Digest 6/1/2009 Reuters, WSJ, NYTimes, FT, Bloomberg

newspaperReuters:   GM (GM) will file for Chapter 11 today.

Reuters:   Geithner told China its dollar assets are safe.

Reuters:   A judge approved the sale of most of Chrysler’s assets to a group led by Fiat.

Reuters:   German cut a deal to save Opel.

Reuters:   Private equity firm KKR lost $1.8 billion last year.

Reuters:   Elan is in talks to sell a stake to Bristol-Myers (BMY).

Reuters:   China’s economy is stabilizing and exports moved up slightly.

Reuters:   The Fed is puzzled by the steepening of the yield curve.

WSJ:   Ford (F) will increase production next quarter in an attempt to take business from its rivals.

WSJ:   “Lawmakers are pressing the Treasury Department to close a loophole to protect Social Security and disability benefits deposited in bank accounts from creditors.”

WSJ:   Emulux is expanding its push to prevent a takeover by Broadcom (BRCM).

WSJ:   Merck (MRK) and AstraZeneca are testing a new experimental cancer drug.

WSJ:   Geithner urges China to open its economy.

WSJ:   Emerging nations are increasing demand for key resources.

WSJ:   The Fed’s attempt to keep mortgage rates low is not working well.

WSJ:   The IMF expects jobs to trail GDP growth.

WSJ:   The demand for oil is staying low.

WSJ:   Weak demand for electricity could help consumers this summer.

WSJ:   Foreclosures are having a mixed impact on sales.

WSJ:   Temasek Holdings may sell its holding in Chartered Semiconductor.

WSJ:   Losses at homebuilders are expected to narrow.

WSJ:   International markets are at the center of the new stock rally.

WSJ:   The ISM data may not show a sharp recovery in the economy.

WSJ:   Improving results at banks are sending them on hiring sprees.

WSJ:   Commercial real estate will be a drawn-out problem for banks.

WSJ:   Retailers are felling the impact for foreclosures.

NYT:   The Big Three are no longer in a position to help bring the economy out of a recession.

NYT:   The battle for trading derivatives is at the heart of how much regulation of the banks is too much.

NYT:   Google (GOOG) will take on Amazon (AMZN) in the e-book business.

FT:   Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SNE) are taking aim at the market share of the Nintendo Wii.

FT:   A new reports says that the rebound in stocks cannot be sustained.

FT:   The US energy markets are bracing for hurricane season.

Bloomberg:   Goldman Sachs (GS) says commodity demand will produce a 19% return this year.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Posted on: June 1, 2009 – 3:01 am in Banking, Drug companies, Economy, Emerging Markets, Healthcare, Housing, Mergers and Buy Outs, Metals, Oil & Gas, Pharmaceuticals, Press Digest, Semiconductors, , , , , , , , ,