Exchange – 24/7 Wall St.

Posts related to ‘Exchange’

24/7 Wall St. TV: $10 Trillion In Baby Boomer Cash

Baby boomers control $10 trillion in assets. A great deal if not most of that money has been invested in the stock market as this part of the population attempted in increase the size of retirement nest-eggs by riding the great bull market as the DJIA rose from 2,000 after the 1987 crash to 14,000 less than two years ago.

Money management firm Blackrock (NYSE:BLK) says that much of this huge pool of capital will now move into much safer investments as the people born in the late 1940s and 1950s retire. Read More »

Posted on: October 7, 2009 – 8:00 am in Exchange, TV, AAPL, BLK, CSCO, GOOG, INTC, ORCL

Sirius XM (SIRI) Gets Nasdaq Warning On Stock Price

Sirius XM (SIRI) faces a possible delisting from the Nasdaq, according to a disclosure by the company. The firm’s common stock closed below $1.00 per share for 30 consecutive business days. That violates the Nasdaq Marketplace Rule 5450(a)(1).

Sirius has until March 10, 2010 to fix the problem. The issue disappears if the firm’s stock closes above $1 for 10 consecutive trading days.

Sirius is not left with many options. Its shares trade at $.69 and there is every reason to believe that if the company does not have extraordinary earnings for the third or fourth quarters that the stock will stay near where it is. Read More »

Posted on: September 18, 2009 – 5:40 am in Consumer Electronics, Exchange, SIRI

Best Performing Sectors This Week: Cancer Stocks, Home Furnishing, Aircraft Leasing

Posted on: April 16, 2009 – 12:07 pm in Business Services, Exchange, Industry, AER, AYR, CEGE, CME, DNDN, GERN, PIR, WSM

Looking For The “Real” Investor

The head of The New York Stock Exchange is questioning the viability of the tremendous March market rally. He contends “real” investors were not in the thick of the trading. He has the benefit of access to statistics which almost no on else has, so his opinion should carry significant weight.

“In rare comments about market movements, Duncan Niederauer said in an interview with the Financial Times that the rally was driven by short-term traders trying to take advantage of high volatility and not by large institutional or other long-term investors,” the paper noted. Read More »

Posted on: April 16, 2009 – 4:40 am in Exchange, Index

Exchange Wars: What Will NYSE Get From Qatar? (NYX, NDAQ, CME)

NYSE Euronext (NYSE Euronext: NYX) has signed a strategic partnership with the State of Qatar in a bid that may transform the Doha Securities Market. The visibility is aimed to make Doha’s market an international player in the global exchange space and to give the NYSE Euronext with a foothold presence in the Middle East. NYSE Euronext will purchase a 25% stake in the Doha Securities market for $250 million in cash (US Dollars), in what was said to be the most attractive offer as part of a competitive bidding process.

The State of Qatar and NYSE Euronext to build a new, internationally integrated cash and derivatives exchange in Doha. This will be aligned through equity participation, technology integration and market structure similarity. The NYSE will get 3 of the 11 board seats on the exchange and the State of Qatar will retain 75% ownership and 8 of the 11 board seats.

This will enhance Doha’s existing cash equities business and provide a platform for derivatives trading and related clearing services. The NYSE Euronext will act as a partner managing the operation of the new exchange and will appoint the senior management team and providing technology services. After this is all said and done, Qatar expects to end up with a total market infrastructure capability and will solidify its position as a regional capital market.

The closing of the transaction is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close during Q4-2008.

If you want to compare this implied $1 Billion market cap based upon the terms of the deal, that compares to a $15+ Billion market cap for NYSE Euronext and compares to a $5.98 Billion market cap for NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ). CME Group Inc. (NYSE: CME) has a market cap of $23.9 Billion as of last look.

Jon C. Ogg
June 24, 2008

Posted on: June 24, 2008 – 10:58 am in Exchange, Exchange News, CME, NDAQ, NYX

CME Acquiring NYMEX

It’s official. The CME Group Inc. (NYSE, Nasdaq: CME) is acquiring NYMEX Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: NMX). The commodities and futures exchanges announced a definitive agreement where CME will acquire NYMEX on the terms previously announced.

NYMEX shareholders will receive 0.1323 shares of CME Group Class A common stock and $36.00 in cash for each share of NYMEX common stock. This equates to approximately 12.5 million shares and cash of $3.4 billion, and NYMEX will ultimately hold approximately 18.6% of the combined company. This generates a purchase price of $100.30 before any dilution to CME shares. NYMEX shares closed at $95.34 Friday, and the 52-week trading range is $86.61 to $148.00.

Shareholders of NYMEX can elect to receive either CME stock or cash for each share of NYMEX, although the cash and stock amounts will be determined by proration in the event that cash elections are either greater than or less than a mandatory cash component of approximately $3.4 billion. CME may choose to increase the cash amount if NYMEX shareholders elect to receive more than $3.4 billion in cash, under certain circumstances.

The combined exchanges will now offer commodities and futures offerings in almost every major asset class and in cash, over-the-counter and regulated markets. There were many out there that questioned whether or not the merger between the CME and the CBOT should have been allowed by regulators. You can imagine the questions this brings up.

Jon C. Ogg
March 17, 2008

Posted on: March 17, 2008 – 7:00 am in Exchange, Mergers and Buy Outs, BOT, CBOT, CME, NMX, NYMEX

NYSE Going Further Into Futures & Derivatives (NYX, CME)

NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and CME Group, Inc. (NYSE: CME) announced late today that NYSE would purchase CME Group’s Metals Complex.

NYSE noted that trading of full and e-mini contracts in gold and silver futures and options on futures contracts would begin later this year on LIFFE CONNECT, which is the NYSE Euronext’s derivatives trading system. The deal and the trading launches are of course subject to regulatory approvals.

The precious metals derivatives contracts currently trade on the e-CBOT, an electronic trading platform managed by Atos Euronext Market Solutions and powered by LIFFE CONNECT. NYSE Euronext will acquire the CBOT Metals Complex from the CME Group, including its volume and open interest, and CME will provide clearing services for up to 1-year. In 2007, the CME Group Metals Complex traded more than 11 million contracts, an average daily volume of more than 45,000 contracts.

This might have been slightly larger news if they would have chosen any other day to announce this.

Jon C. Ogg
March 14, 2008

Posted on: March 14, 2008 – 4:10 pm in Exchange, CME, NYX

NASDAQ Furthers Options Interest (NDAQ, NYX)

The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) has received approval from the SEC that will allow the exchange to launch its equity and index options market. The new exchange will be called the NASDAQ Options Market. The options exchange is NASDAQ OMX’s new electronic option trading offering that will be set up to operate on a price/time priority model.

The market is scheduled to begin operation on March 31, 2008. NASDAQ is already buying the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, so this part here may be more of a formality than any major news.

But with the NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) acquiring the American Stock Exchange, this is just one more shot in the war of exchanges. The two exchanges are also soon to be warring in the SPAC IPO listings.

Jon C. Ogg
March 12, 2008

Posted on: March 12, 2008 – 1:51 pm in Exchange, Options, NDAQ, NYX

SPAC IPO Competition To Heat Up: AMEX vs. NASDAQ (NDAQ, NYX)

It looks like the American Stock Exchange, and ultimately the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: NYX) after the two merge, is going to get some competition for all of the IPO’s in Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC’s) and Blank Check companies.

Recently, The Nasdaq Stock Market (NASDAQ: NDAQ) submitted a proposal to the SEC to get in on the SPAC IPO market. Right now, the American Stock Exchange has been the go-to vehicle for SPAC’s that has allowed these blank check acquisition vehicles to list in the United States. It’s hard to conceive any reasons that the SEC or any other regulatory body would block this move.

In 2007, 66 SPACs grossed over $12 billion in offerings, according to SpacAnalytics.com. And SPACS are showing no signs of stopping with almost $3 billion raised so far in 2008, comprising 53% of IPO filings this year. This cottage sector is almost like trading much smaller versions of private equity, without as much focus and diversity.

According to their release last week, Nasdaq Senior Vice President Bob McCooey recognizes the potential in the recent IPO trend, stating, "Acquisition vehicles are an increasingly common capital-raising device. We believe that listing them on NASDAQ, subject to these important investor protections, will benefit investors and issuers alike."

In its proposal, Nasdaq will require the acquisition vehicles to meet all of Nasdaq’s minimum listing requirements, as well as “stringent” SPAC specific criteria, as follows:

Requiring placement of the proceeds in a trust
Requiring the completion of a business combination within 36 months
Requiring shareholder approval for each business combination

Currently, most SPACs usually tend to face an 18 month deadline (or 24 months) to complete a deal to become an operational company. The extension could prevent SPACs from rushing to close a not-so-hot business combination. There are some downsides as well because this could lead to many companies sitting on companies, and you could imagine that ultimately you could seem some very wide spreads to an IPO SPAC price and the market price.

Nasdaq did not specify a time frame. We would presume that the only serious issues in determining an effective date would be an SEC review of any key differences in their listing requirements and the differences in terms for such a listing. SPAC’s and Blank Check companies used to be thought of poorly, but the image is being cleaned up now that many SPAC’s have effected mergers and become successful post-merger operations. The share price track record for SPACs is still at least somewhat questionable and we have yet to see if this is a trend or permanent public component. Goldman Sachs avoids them, and few doubt their track record.

Jon C. Ogg
February 29, 2008

Posted on: February 29, 2008 – 11:48 am in Exchange, Exchange News, IPOs, NDAQ, NYX, SPAC

NYMEX/CME Merger Speculators Should Consider Regulatory & Price Issues (NMX, CME, NYX, ICE, NDAQ)

We’ve seen the consolidation happening on the global exchanges. They are becoming larger and larger powerhouses, and some are coming under more and more scrutiny. This morning’s New York Post ran a piece titled "NYMEX Merger Deal All But Completed" with the estimated terms. The estimated terms were even listed as $36 per share in cash and 0.1323 CME shares per NMX share. This article does note "Challenges to the merger could still arise evenafter a deal is signed….. That price might not sit well with someNymex shareholders…"

What we wanted to do was put this in perspective. Frankly there are more risks here than reward if the current terms are accurate. Merger speculation has been present on NYMEX at much higher prices before. NMX closed at $96.29 yesterday, and its 52-week trading range is $86.61 to $148.00. It has lost roughly one-quarter of its post-IPO value since coming public in late-2006. CME stock closed at $516.44 (52-week range of $475.17 to $714.48), so the combined price before any dilution would generate a perceived NMX buyout price of $68.32 on the stock side and including the $36 cash offer would net out at $104.32.

The largest fear that merger speculators should have here is a regulatory blockage of a deal, and that is on top of the notion that this premium is essentially an "at the market" buyout at best. Wall Street and Main Street already saw many wondering how the CME & CBOT merger was even allowed to go through, and the argument that a "clearing monopoly" now exists is not going to go away. Even though this administration and lax regulatory environment has failed to block a single large merger over "anti-competitive pressure," it is impossible not to think this approval process could be tied up for long enough that a new administration might can the deal.

So who else is left that could actually do a deal?

The NYSE (NYSE: NYX) is already involved in acquiring the Amex, and with its recent share price weakness and a new CEO it would be very hard for the equity exchange giant to be able to jump the hurdle into the futures exchange. The NASDAQ Stock Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is just way to small to make a pursuit of this size.

InterContinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) has been left out in the wind as its attempt to buy the CBOT lost out to the CME. "The ICE" and NYMEX are almost equally yoked as far as market caps, with the ICE being slightly higher as of Thursday. A merger between those two would perhaps face much less scrutiny from any regulators.

While there is a chance that any first offer could be raised, it sure looks like there is a real chance that this could get blocked by regulators AND by shareholders. If these "likely" terms are the real deal, we’d probably speculate elsewhere.

Jon C. Ogg
February 22, 2008

Posted on: February 22, 2008 – 6:59 am in Exchange, Exchange News, Mergers and Buy Outs, Rumors, CME, ICE, NDAQ, NMX, NYX

Cramer Critical About NYSE (NYX, NDAQ)

On tonight’s MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer was discussing the rhythm of the markets being short sharp rallies followed by sell-offs. But he also had the CEO of NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) Duncan Niederauer on for a taped interview from earlier today.

Shares of NYSE were hosed worse than a rented tuxedo at a pool party after its earnings today. Shares fell 14% today to $71.03, and the 52-week trading range is $64.26 to $101.00. This literally traded over $1 Billion worth of stock today. As a reminder, this was Cramer’s #1 Growth Stock for 2007 that he actually updated in the first trading day of this year. Here you can see where he said he thought it was having a great quarter and could be ridden higher, before today.

What is interesting is that Cramer already gave a video blurb on this today with a large disappointment. Cramer was shocked that they did not have a blow-out quarter despite the huge market volatility and he’s shocked that it didn’t grow market share. Cramer noted in the interview about negative operating leverage, meaning they lose more money on more volume. Niederauer said there is a level he has to focus on, as the has gotten a lot done but has much more to do. The 2007 story has a lot of room to improve and they have much to work out on technology savings. After that they will look at being held to accountability.

As far as buying the American Stock Exchange, the NYSE wanted the ETF and for emerging companies stock listing platform. Cramer even wondered if the NYSE was a burden on Euronext because of the negative dollar etc. Cramer even noted that the Euronext was worth $23 Billion, and that would mean the NYSE is worth negative-$3 Billion. As far as clearing, Cramer wonders why they are not in clearing yet. Cramer even brought up the point that the actual NYSE stock is such a horrible stock to trade. Niederauer hinted at a stock split here to narrow the bid-ask spread, and he even discussed the possibilities of a share buyback or dividend boost. As far as China, the NYSE wants to do more and is focused there. Lastly, Cramer asked if Niederauer was given a bad hand, but he did not throw John Thain under the bus.

Jon C. Ogg
February 5, 2008

Posted on: February 5, 2008 – 7:40 pm in Cramer, Exchange, NDAQ, NYX

Goldman Sachs Changes Exchange Call on Conviction Buy List (ICE, CME)

In a coverage swap this morning, Goldman Sachs has made a change to its closely followed CONVICTION BUY LIST. Goldman is adding InterContinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) and removing the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE:CME).

The ICE target has been set at $210 over the next 12-months. Goldman is also maintaining its official buy rating on CME. This change appears based upon valuation and relative performance since teh CME is noted as being up 26% since being added on June 14, 2007, while the S&P 500 is down about 2%.

CME shares are down almost 1% so far in pre-market trading. ICE shares are also down about 0.4% in pre-market trading.

Jon C. Ogg
December 13, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: December 13, 2007 – 9:21 am in Analyst Calls, Exchange, CME, ICE

NYSE & NASDAQ Get Another Competitor, Well Sort Of (NDAQ, NYX)

BATS Trading, Inc. announced Monday it filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to become a fully licensed securities exchange so that it would have the same regulations and the same status as both the NYSE Euronext (NYSE:NYX) and that NASDAQ Stock Market (NASDAQ:NDAQ). In terms of the critical metric of matched market share, BATS claims that it has established itself as the third largest market center in the U.S. just since the January 2006 launch.

Included in the BATS customer base are more than 200 broker-dealers and a broad-based ownership group of Citi, Credit Suisse, GETCO, Lehman Brothers, Lime Brokerage, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Wedbush. BATS recently recorded one-day record volume of 774 million shares and routinely has a match rate exceeding 80 percent.

This won’t be a surprise to most exchange watchers as BATS noted even back in July that it was eying an exchange status. In short, this is moving from more of an ECN (electronic communications network) status to a full exchange status if you want a comparison. You can see its full fee schedule if you wish. With all the mergers and developments in exchanges, you just wonder if this one will ever make to a full IPO or if it will stay funded as it is by the backers.

Will saber rattling kill NASDAQ/Dubai?

More mergers coming…

Jon C. Ogg
November 5, 2007

Posted on: November 5, 2007 – 2:14 pm in Exchange, NDAQ, NYX

Boston Stock Exchange Closing Electronic Stock Exchange

The Boston Stock Exchange (The "BSE") has announced that it has discontinued the operations of the Boston Equities Exchange ("BeX"), whch is the exchange’s electronic stock exchange launched in August 2005. The BSE claims that it will continue to be active in the marketplace and will support its remaining ventures including the regulation of the Boston Options Exchange (BOX). BeX is one of several ventures launched by the BSE over the past three years.

While this venture struggled to gain market share in large part due to the overall strength of market incumbents, the BSE claims that the other ventures have continued to be successful. The BSE says that LeveL, its dark-book alternative trading system, which was originally incubated by the BSE, is experiencing dramatic growth and plans to expand its operations.

“We are disappointed that BeX was not able to become competitive in today’s marketplace and perform as well as other ventures of the Boston Stock Exchange, but we want to emphasize that the BSE remains a committed member of the National Market System,” said Boston Stock Exchange Chairman and CEO, Michael Curran.

The Boston Stock Exchange and the various ventures have a total of approximately 100 employees and this cessation will affect approximately forty employees: some will be reassigned to other ventures, some will remain on through the transition and those whose positions were eliminated will receive severance packages.

As the exchange wars heat up and as the competition gets more fierce, these regional players have to focus on their strengths rather than bringing on wider areas for a broader scope where they are outgunned from day one. Speaking of which, where is that darned American Stock Exchange IPO?

Jon C. Ogg
September 5, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the Special Situation Investing Newsletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Posted on: September 5, 2007 – 9:21 am in Exchange, Boston Stock Exchange

Cramer Stomachs Sticking With NYSE (NYX)

Cramer has said he’s been a big backer of NYSE Euronext (NYX-NYSE) and was up on it early, but it has been a disaster since he named it his #1 Growth stock of the year. Cramer said he has it in his charitable trust, but now 6 months into the year he said he doesn’t think it is a bad call upon review. The Euronext merger is helping it and the demutualization history has been rewarding for investors. He thinks that the stock is becoming a horrible trading stock that drops more than the markets on bad days and doesn’t rally as much as the market.

Cramer interviewed Duncan Niederauer of the NYSE: NYSE did big analyst day yesterday and they are the only multi-product global exchange that is scalable. The street has a hard time valuing it and interpreting it. On derivatives, the US futures market is a hole in their product mix and they admitted that the only way in is via an acquisition. The listed trading volume in the U.S. is 85% exchange oriented and as the hybrid trading system has sharpened already. Cramer asked about the specialist gap and the bizarre trading patterns of the stock, and the company said that it has released soem of the lock-up dates to just get the stock into the market because of the thin float.

What is obvious is that the ‘lock-up unlocking’ is hurting the stock. That didn’t receive too much press and that would explain some of the mess. NYSE has a history of allowing for a sloppy ‘lock-up release’ timing. NYSE shares closed down at $79.95, down more than $32.00 from the $112.00 highs over the last 52-weeks.

Posted on: June 7, 2007 – 5:32 pm in Cramer, Exchange, Exchange News, Financial Stocks, NYX

Nasdaq’s Problem Is Its Share Price

Forget Nasdaq’s (NADQ) failed bid for the London Stock Exchange. Wall St. doesn’t like the stock. Over the last year, shares in the exchange operator are off about 10%. Shares in NYSE (NYX) are up over 50% during the same period. Shares in the CME (CME) are up 40%.

Wall St. likes the New York Stock Exchanges deal with Euronext and the Tokyo Stock Exchange.The premium that the NYSE gets is considerable. It has a market cap of over $13.8 billion on revenue of $1.6 billion.

The CME has a market cap is $19.6 billion, on revenue of $1.1 billion. Nasdaq has a $3.9 billion market cap against revenue of $1.5 billion.

Nasdaq is still viewed by many companies as a second place rival to the NYSE. As Morningstar points out: The largest risk facing Nasdaq is that trading in its listed stocks migrates to other venues such as rival electronic communications networks and off-exchange dark pools of liquidity. Another potential concern is a large shock to the system that would result in a significant decrease in trading by hedge funds and other hyperactive traders. We believe that a worst-case scenario event would result in Nasdaq’s fair value dropping by about one third.

Nasdaq did reports strong increases in its quarterly earnings.

But, Wall St. seems to be betting in the direction of the worse case.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Posted on: February 13, 2007 – 6:50 am in Exchange

Will Cramer Stay So Bullish on NYSE After Earnings?

NYSE Group (NYX-NYSE) has shown what might be interpreted as a dud of an earnings report. The operating results were $0.45 EPS versus $0.46 consensus estimates; the highest estimate is $0.49. Revenues were $658.5 million. The comparable numbers on a year-over-year basis are a bit difficult because of the Archipelago Exchange closing in March 2006. After backing out items for ongoing ARCA costs and for Euronext charges totalling $34.1 million, net EPS came in at $0.29.

The operating results are the ones to use, but all in all this just seems lackluster if you consider the performance and the multiples. The stock will at least no longer trade with a 100+ P/E ratio, but the forward multiple for 2007 is still roughly 45 times earnings. We’ll have to see how the street research reports come in, although it is worth noting that they have been in the shadows of the stock on its 100%+ performance. The analyst calls probably won’t be out in force until Monday morning.

As a reminder, this was Cramer’s #1 Growth Stock pick for 2007 and he has been touting the stock on most occasions over the last 60+ days. So far NYX shares are down 3% at just under $99.00 pre-market; and the 52-week trading range is $48.62 to $112.00. Its short interest was listed at 4.496 million shares as of January, up almost 3% from December. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME-NYSE) also reported some fairly lackluster results this week, but the BOT earnings were a bit better and they are in a merger together so the shares are back up essentially right where CME shares were ahead of the earnings report.

Jon C. Ogg
February 2, 2007

Posted on: February 2, 2007 – 9:21 am in Analyst Calls, Cramer, Earnings, Exchange, Exchange News, Financial Stocks

The Week of Cramer (JAN 22-26, 2007)

Stock Tickers: CAT, MRVC, GS, BBI, RAD, STZ, NTLI, DEO, RIO, TM, BNS, BC, GPS, BRCM, MRVL, TYC, SLB, COF, CRDN, C

This is a review of Cramer calls this week, and a link has been provided for each individual story if you missed it during the week. Friday’s show looks like it was a pre-taped show or re-run more on stratgey than on stocks.

Cramer said Friday he thinks that Caterpillar (CAT) looked fine.

MRV Communications said Friday it would IPO its Luminent unit, they must have been watching Cramer a couple weeks ago.

On Thursday’s SELL BLOCK, Cramer updates positions he has been in. Most of his sell block recommendations are not full sells. He comments on Goldman Sachs (GS), Blockbuster (BBI), Rite-Aid (RAD), eBay (EBAY); although he called Constellation (STZ) a triple sell.

Cramer counted down his favorite FOREIGN stocks for US investors: #1 Toyota (TM), #2 Diageo (DEO), #3 Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), #4 CVRD (RIO), NTL Inc. (NTLI).

He defended Brunswick (BC) on Thursday.

Jimbo went out on limb and predicted that a private equity buyer would pay $25.00 to acquire Gap Inc. (GPS) In 6-months.

On Wednesday, Cramer gave a buy thesis for two chip names: Marvell (MRVL) and Broadcom (BRCM).

Cramer made the argument that Tyco (TYC) is one to play the split-up on.

Cramer really kicked the ethanol stocks by calling them a joke. They were running up too much ahead of the State of the Union speech.

He made a note after Texas Instruments (TXN) got earnings out that you could look at buying some tech.

Cramer noted the start of the week that oil service names like Schlumberger (SLB) were in good shape. He keeps talking about TransOcean too (RIG).

At the start of the week Cramer showed how he thinks Capital One (COF) could go to $100.00.

Cramer said he was a believer in Ceradyne (CRDN) and interviewed the CEO after a downgrade knocked the stock.

Cramer started the week with a note that if Chuck Prince would leave Citigroup (C) it would be worth $5.00.

Cramer made a pretty big call on the DJIA, but he must have been speaking about multi-year because it was 17,000.

Cramer would want you to have a Booyah weekend.

Jon C. Ogg
January 26, 2007

Posted on: January 26, 2007 – 6:15 pm in Analyst Calls, Cramer, Exchange, Financial Stocks, Semiconductor, Technology Companies

TOP ISSUES THIS WEEK (2) (JAN 22-26, 2007)

Stock Tickers: WDC, STX, AMGN, DELL, EOP, F, NOK, QCOM, GPS, FCBP, SUNW, NOVL, COMS, GTW,

We have compiled a list of our TOP ISSUES for the week. These aren’t necessarily the top issues in the markets, but it’s the things that we think are important to remember going ahead that are not just one-time issues. Certain issues have to be kept in permanent memory for investors and traders. These are only the ones we covered as well. These may be much more voluminous during earnings season, and you can expect them to be light during August and December. Here are top stories that investors and traders need to commit to memory:

Western Digital (WDC) really gave it up at the end of the week (closed down 8% Friday at $19.11 after earning) after beating earnings but giving some weak guidance. This is one of our BAIT SHOP takeover candidate stocks, but if you look in the story it shows where we thought taking have your money off the table the week before was prudent and the way to lock in some gains. This could still be bought down the road, so keep your eyes on it. The industry leader and blue-chip of the dick drive sector, Seagate (STX) didn’t have the same issues, but we’ll see what a price war does for them (closed down 1.3% with the WDC drop).

Amgen (AMGN) is really looking like a plain jane drug company. A low P/E ratio isn’t going to do it alone and there are some risks to estimates after 2007. It’s always scary when biotechs or Internet stocks are being evaluated for "value investors" instead of growth engines. Amgen has matured as one of the oldest biotechs around, now it’s a drug stock.

Get ready for the American Stock Exchange to join the public company status for US exchanges. Maybe it will just be acquired, but seat prices on the exchange doubled in the last year.

Are Dell (DELL) shareholders entirely out of the woods yet?

Equity Office (EOP) and the bids for it just keep going higher. Blackstone may have won though with what would be a $500 million break-up fee if they get snaked. This one may be the biggest deal ever.

Ford (F-NYSE)…..a tale of two miseries. Does shrinking your way back to profits make sense, or does it not address the core issues?

Nokia (NOK) isn’t getting the sandbagging that Motorola got, and Qualcomm (QCOM) numbers really aren’t that bad, although the stock and the company has issues.

Cramer has predicted that the Gap Inc. (GPS) will be acquired for $25.00 by private equity firms within 6 months. Thankfully Paul Pressler is gone! That’s 2 of our 10 CEO’s who need to go that have taken the advice.

First Community Bancorp (FCBP) showed us its post-acquistion financials and its earnings. This one is staying on the BAIT SHOP as a takeover candidate. If they don’t get bought out they may just grow into a huge regional player themselves.

Very few Americans are thinking about how the Internet is being dominated by Chinese Web companies. Will it continue and they become king, or will regulations dampen their opportunities?

KKR did the unimaginable. They invested $700 Million into Sun Microsystems (SUNW). Servers and Java aren’t just for coffeehouses it seems. Could this set up more similar private equity deals into laggard old-world tech companies? There are several that could benefit.

Jon Ogg & Douglas McIntyre

Posted on: January 26, 2007 – 4:40 pm in Analyst Calls, Bait Shop, Biotech, Business Services, Cramer, Exchange, Exchange News, Food, IPOs, Internet, Large Cap Stocks, Management Change, Mergers and Buy Outs, PC Companies, Press Digest, Research, SEC, Semiconductor, Technology Companies

American Stock Exchange May Soon Be Public

Stock Tickers: NYX, NDAQ, NMX, ICE, CME

The American Stock Exchange has been a laggard in the close nit exchange circles for longer than most could think of and it hasn’t been very well thought of, but that might not be the case for much longer. The company has announced that its board of governors and the Membership Corporation have appointed Morgan Stanley to advise it on demutualizing and for "potential strategic future initiatives."

That is indicative of only one of two things: IPO or Sale, with an IPO as the most likely scenario. Everyone thinks of the AMEX as the red-headed step child in the stock exchange world, but if you haven’t been reading up on developments then be advised that isn’t your uncle’s AMEX. The technology is not as far behind as it once was, and because it has fewer listing than NASDAQ or NYSE it is a much more manageable exchange. They now have more than 200 ETF listings on the exchange and is home to many closed-end funds. The listing requirements are more accomodative to emerging companies, and the listing costs are much more reasonable than at the NYSE. Even though the options business has changed rapidly and gone largely electronic, this is still one of the options hubs in the U.S.

With the huge price increases seen in shares of NYSE (NYX), with the meteoric rise of the CME (CME), the 400% rise in NASDAQ (NDAQ) shares in the last two-plus years, the rise of InterContinental Exchange (ICE), the premium open for NYMEX (NMX), and the international mergers of exchanges….it is different than in the past.

All that you can really say on this is, "It’s about time." This is not the same AMEX that it was when it parted ways with NASDAQ. It is likely that the media will point out of more of the old negative stories about the exchange for some time. After all, it’s easier to be negative in the media than it is positive and you get more readers for being a nay-sayer. Despite the past, you don’t have to have the name "Dr. Pangloss" to see the good here. That’s my take on it.

There has been something in the works for a while, so it might not be the biggest surprise in the world. This is still going to be one to watch. A seat on the Exchange last sold for $400,000 and the indicated market for a seat is $365K X $400K. One trader I speak with regularly said that seats were under $200,000.00 as recently as last year.

Jon C. Ogg

January 25, 2007