24/7 Wall St. has gone through the industrial products, chemicals, and heavy equipment makers to see which outfits offer investors the least risk and most reward.  Consensus targets are from Thomson Reuters and we have evaluated the following: Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD); The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA); Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT); Deere & Company (NYSE: DE); The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW); E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD); Danaher Corp. (NYSE: DHR); and Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW).

Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (NYSE: APD) traded at $79.50 with a market value of $16.8 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $98.75 and the 52-week trading range is $72.26 to $98.00.  Air Products’ most recent yield was listed as 3.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 24% but we would note that the consensus target is still above the 52-week high.

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) traded at $71.05 with a market value of $53.2 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $86.08 and the 52-week trading range is $56.01 to $78.35.  This DJIA component’s most recent yield was listed as about 2.5%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 21% but we would note that the consensus target is almost $8.00 higher than the 52-week high and you have to go back to before the recession to find Boeing shares that high.

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) traded at $91.25 with a market value of $59.5 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $130.95 and the 52-week trading range is $67.54 to $116.95.  Caterpillar’s most recent yield was listed as 2.0%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 44% but we would note that the consensus target is almost 10% above the 52-week high.

Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) traded at $74.50 with a market value of $30 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $92.79 and the 52-week trading range is $59.92 to $89.70.  Deere’s most recent yield was listed as 2.4%. The implied upside to the consensus target is about 25% but we would note that the consensus target is about $3.00 higher than the 52-week high.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) traded at $30.00 with a market value of $35.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $37.23 and the 52-week trading range is $20.61 to $37.30.  Dow’s most recent yield was listed as a very high 4.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 24% but we would note that the consensus effectively is the same as the 52-week high.

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD) traded at $48.40 with a market value of $45.3 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $58.33 and the 52-week trading range is $37.10 to $56.20.  DuPont’s yield was listed as about 3.5%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 20% and that target is about $2.00 above the 52-week high.

Danaher Corp. (NYSE: DHR) traded at $51.85 with a market value of $35.9 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $60.95 and the 52-week trading range is $39.34 to $56.45.  Danaher’s most recent yield was tiny at only 0.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is only about 17% and it is worth noting that the analyst consensus target is more than $4.00 above the 52-week high.

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) traded at $54.40 with a market value of $26 billion.  The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is $61.53 and the 52-week trading range is $39.12 to $59.27.  ITW’s most recent yield was listed as 2.6%. The implied upside to the consensus target is only about 13%, making this the least ‘implied upside’ winner of the lot.  This one is also only down about 8% from its most recent high as well.

You can see that there is a very mixed bag here.  The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE: DOW) leads in the dividend department with a 4.2% yield.  Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is the leader with ‘implied analyst upside’ of 44% but it seems a stretch in the upside if you look at where the stock has been and how volatile the stock has been.  Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE: ITW) has the least amount of ‘implied analyst upside’ but it has also held up among the best during the market sell-off.

Gold & Silver Miners With Most Upside & Value

Major Oil Companies WIth Most Upside & Value

Conglomerates With Most Upside & Value

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JON C. OGG

At a time when Treasury yields have been nonexistent, MLP investors have been able to get high payouts that are viewed as quasi-dividends, due to some payouts representing income and some representing return of capital. The question to ask now is whether the risk-reward is there for new investors at the current prices. The unit prices of many key MLPs have been hit hard along with stocks in the past few weeks, and we wanted to take a risk-reward look for summer 2012. This sector could get a recovery, or it could face additional pressure like we saw in 2011.

If investors have been involved in the MLP sector since before, during or right after the great panic selling of 2008 and 2009, they are up huge if they held on. In many cases they have doubled their money or more. And as far as they are concerned they have been getting 5% to 8% in payouts each year (again, some income and some return of capital). The problem is that the prices here have become choppy and the MLP structures often have had secondary offerings on top of secondary offerings. Those secondary offerings have provided growth and acquisition capital, but some investors have started to worry that these secondary offerings may be the biggest contribution to the never-ending payout increases that have been seen in this sector.

MLPs in the energy space often attract the same sort of investors who would buy utility shares and preferred shares of banks, but they also overlap with REIT investors who look for above-market yields. This sector has enjoyed large price gains in the unit (share) prices, and investors are looking for any safe investments that have high payouts, compared to the world of no-returns in CDs and Treasuries. A wave of secondary offerings from many MLPs came before and during the recent market sell-off.

24/7 Wall St. has evaluated some of the top MLP investments to see how much implied upside remains in this sector. We have taken price performance as far as the sell-off from recent highs, as well as issues like the payout ratios (implied yield-equivalent) and the consensus price targets from Thomson Reuters. We have evaluated the following MLPs: Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP), Plains All American Pipeline LP (NYSE: PAA), ONEOK Partners LP (NYSE: OKS), Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) and Enbridge Energy Partners LP (NYSE: EEP). These MLPs mentioned and covered here are some of the ones we track and keep on our watch list in the sector. These have market caps above $8 billion, they have a history of increased payouts each quarter, for the most part, and generally speaking these MLPs are all believed to have good management teams.

Investors have made a bundle here in this sector. MLPs are not really all that correlated to the price of oil because these are the partnerships (general and limited) for pipelines, terminals, and other facilities involved in the oil and gas sector in America. MLPs must derive 90% of their income from real estate, natural resources and commodities. The issuing of K-1 statements can make the structure more complicated, but the payouts often make that worth it for many investors seeking higher streams of cash flow.

We also have evaluated some of the key ETFs and closed-end funds in this sector. Be advise that just the three vehicles we have tracked in funds and ETFs have a combined market value of more than $11 billion.

RailAmerica, Inc. (NYSE: RA) recently announced the redemption of $74 million in its remaining 9.25% notes due in 2017.  That is not enough to move the needle on a stock by much that is worth over $1 billion in market value.  What can move a stock this much is takeover chatter.  The Jacksonville Business Journal is quoting Trains Magazine noting that Fortress Investment Group LLC is looking to sell its majority stake in RailAmerica.

Warren Buffett was listed as on potential acquirer and RailAmerica has 45 individual railroad lines with approximately 7,500 miles of track throughout 28 states in America and another three Canadian provinces.

RailAmerica shares are up almost 6% at $22.81 against a 52-week trading range of $11.06 to $23.90.  Its market value is listed as $1.15 billion according to Yahoo! Finance.

Until news gets more concrete, we would only treat reports of this sort as a market rumor.

JON C. OGG

First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has been a total disaster, but short covering and bottom-fishing traders are snapping up shares.  After an all-time low of $13.75 this week, shares recovered to $14.92 on Thursday on the most active volume in two weeks (over 10 million shares).  Shares are indicated above $15.00 for Friday but we will see if this can hold. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) recovered more than 10% on Thursday after a recent low of $4.94 with a close of $5.59 on over 4 million shares (most since Feb 17 at 7.3 million shares).

One potential problem to consider is that the tariffs could inadvertently impact some of the U.S. producers of solar panels as well.  The issue is that many components involved in making these PV panels also come from China.

Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) is a loser in this tariff effort.  Shares were at $2.60 just last Friday and the ADRs closed down at $2.13 on Thursday.  Shares are indicated higher on Friday but we will have to see how it pans out.  Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL) is another loser with its ADR closing at $6.08 Thursday after having been at $7.50 just last Friday.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) closed lower on Thursday at $2.91, but this is actually in-line with prices just last Friday and its 52-week range is $2.54 to $7.90.

GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: GTAT) is often lost in the shuffle as it is on the technology side of the solar PV process.  It is also in LED technology.  Shares closed down at $4.49 on Thursday against a 52-week low of $4.24.  The 12 million shares traded on Thursday was the highest trading volume seen since last August.

If you really want to know what the trend is on a global-solar basis, just follow the Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN).  This ETF closed down yet again at $18.35 on Thursday after closing at $19.21 the prior day and against a $20.61 close last Friday.

Unfortunately, the solar sector has its share of woes and pain.  Austerity, expiration of tax credits, a lack of cost-effectiveness, and other issues are going to be present for the time being whether tariffs exist or not.

JON C. OGG

Like smaller competitors AGCO Corp. (NYSE: AGCO) and CNH Global NV (NYSE: CNH), Deere’s farm equipment sales in the US and Canada rose the most as acres under cultivation continue to grow. Sales in Asia were described as “up moderately, though slowing.” The largest of the equipment makers, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), has much more invested in Asia, particularly China, than does any of the others, and it was that commitment to China that haunted Caterpillar when it announced quarterly results last month. More about that later.

For the current quarter, Deere expects sales to rise 25% above the same period a year ago. Prices are expected to improve by about 4%, and currency effects are expected to reduce sales by about 4%. For the fiscal year, Deere forecast sales growth of about 15%, with a 4% improvement in prices and a -3% currency exchange impact. The company also raised its total net income forecast from $3.275 billion to $3.35 billion for the year.

Deere, unlike Caterpillar, does not have significant exposure in China. Caterpillar employs 11,000 people in the country and expects that number to double by 2015. The company pointed out that just 3% of its global revenues in the first quarter were attributable to China. Although the two statements may not be linked in management’s mind, they are in investors’ minds.

When Cat had to downplay China’s role in its business, what investors took away is that business was falling in China. And the new plants and new employees in Caterpillar’s Chinese operations are now going to be a drag on earnings, not a positive. That probably won’t turn out to be the case, but that was the effect of what the company had to say.

None of these four has had a particularly good past 12 months. As of last night’s close, every one’s share price is lower than it was a year ago, with AGCO down -19%, Deere and Caterpillar down -13%, and CNH down just less than -1%. Growth in North America is not going to drive record sales, only Asia can do that. As long as the Chinese economy continues its slowed growth, sales of farm and construction equipment won’t jump off the charts.

Shares of Deere are up about 1% in the pre-market, at $77.35, in a 52-week range of $59.92-$89.70.

Paul Ausick

American Railcar Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: ARII) also more than doubled EPS estimates for the quarter and Greenbriar Companies (NYSE: GBX) beat estimates by more than 25%. Railroads fared well too, though not with the same big move. CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) beat its EPS estimate by 13%, Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) beat by about 10%, and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (NYSE: CP) beat the consensus estimate by 5%.

FreightCar delivered about 3 times as many cars in the first quarter as it did in the same period a year ago. The not-so-good news is that orders fell significantly in the quarter, from 4,027 a year ago to 1,244 this year. Backlog is growing, though, from 5,206 a year ago to 6,934 this year.

Sequentially FreightCar’s backlog has dipped from 8,303 in December 2011 to 6,934 at the end of March. Orders need to pick up or the backlog will peter out in the not-so-distant future.

Rail traffic in April was down -5.5% year-over-year, and coal shipments were down -16.6%, the largest decrease on record according to the American Association of Railroads. The number of rail cars in storage now totals about 20% of the fleet, and the number has increased for five straight months.

FreightCar did not offer any guidance in today’s earnings report, but analysts are expecting EPS of $0.43 next quarter and full-year EPS of $1.88. Given today’s strong report those look like slam dunks. But there are a couple of reasons to be cautious here.

FreightCar’s shares are up about 3.7% in the first 45 minutes of trading, but the shares had traded up as much as 18% in the pre-market. The 52-week range is 12.82-$24.01.

Paul Ausick

So, why are things so bad in the garbage and waste management sector? It is almost scary if you reviewed the earnings report from last week’s reports from Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM), Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) and Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN). Even Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (NYSE: BIN) had a bad report. In case you forgot, Bill Gates has been a huge investor in this sector with a 15% or higher stake in Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) via his personal investment entity called Cascade Investment.

Last week, particularly Friday, was just brutal on the shares of these companies due to such poor earnings from the waste management sector leaders. A contrarian take against the grain would be that this sector just got a lot cheaper for those investors who have a very long-term outlook. We want to see which companies are now a bargain and which ones may still deserve some caution.

Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM) took it on the chin last week as booked revenue of $3.30 billion and, while that was above the consensus of about $3.2 billion, the non-GAAP earnings of $0.38 EPS was shy of the $0.41 EPS estimate as GAAP earnings shrank by 5% from a year earlier. The company also reported a drop in the gross margin, operating margin and net margin. The $15-plus billion garbage company was down by more than 3% when the other reports were taken into consideration, with shares trading just above $34 and very close to the Thomson Reuters consensus price target of $34.40. This was just a $36 stock on Wednesday and the 52-week range is $27.75 to $39.69.

Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter results as revenue increased 0.9% to $1.98 billion, but earnings per share fell by 7.8% to $0.38 EPS based on lower recycled commodity prices and higher fuel costs. The $10 billion waste company was said to have lost a large national account due to competitive pricing that will cost about $25 million in 2012 sales and it noted a loss of one or two municipal disposal contracts. The company is holding on to its pricing structure and it did manage to raise volume and said that they are seeing positive C&D activity and special waste volume. Republic was down over 11.5% at one point Friday morning at $27.50 and the 52-week range is $24.72 to $33.10.

Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN) turned in sales growth of more than 13% to $376 million, which was just above estimates, and it claimed increased pricing strength and that its C&D waste volume offset commodities and fuel prices. Still, its EBITDA margin was lower at 30.5% based on lower recycled commodity values and also on higher expenses due to its County Waste acquisition in 2011. The company’s franchise market model is allowing for pricing power and supposedly keeping customer churn lower. Waste Connection shares were down more than 1% on Friday again with shares above $32 and its 52-week range is $29.06 to $35.95. This was probably the only bright spot, but with a $3.5 billion market cap its stock trend was dictated by problems at the larger peers.

U.S. investors often forget about Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (NYSE: BIN) because it is based in Canada, but it has a $2.5 billion market cap. Keep in mind that this is the old BFI Canada, and it offers waste services in Canada and in the United States. A weak report from this company last week took a lot of wind out of its sails as well: $0.19 EPS versus $0.24 EPS expected, but revenues rose 3.6% to $438.3 million versus $434.3 million expected. The company reaffirmed its 2012 outlook. Shares were down more than 6% at $21.40 on Friday against a 52-week range of $18.35 to $25.56. The consensus target from Thomson Reuters is closer to $25 over the next year.

Gabelli issued a report on Friday calling a Waste Connection private market value of $31 for 2012 and $34 in 2013. What is interesting is that Thomson Reuters has a consensus target objective of just over $38 for the next 12 months. Gabelli also maintained its Buy stance on Republic Services and Thomson Reuters had a consensus target of $34.60 before considering the double-digit percentage drop on Friday morning.

Raymond James downgraded Republic Services to Market Perform from Outperform based upon the report. We would not be surprised at all if there are more analyst downgrades due to how the whole sector was soft. These reports from last week may set a sour tone for the smaller US Ecology Inc. (NASDAQ: ECOL) as it is set to report its first quarter earnings on Tuesday, May 1, 2012. Its market cap is only $390 million.

Based upon the new share price drops, the dividends of each are looking better: a 3.9% yield for Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM), a 2.8% yield for Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) but only 1.1% for Waste Connections Inc. (NYSE: WCN). Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. (NYSE: BIN) now has a 2.5% dividend yield.

Things are bad enough in the sector that Enerkem Inc., a Canadian biofuel company backed by Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM) and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO), even withdrew its registration statement with the SEC that would have allowed it to raise almost $140 million in an initial public offering. Enerkem develops refineries that convert trash into gases that get reprocessed to be turned into ethanol and other chemicals. The outfit cited market conditions in the filing. This is sector-specific market conditions, because, in case you had not noticed, the market has managed to hold up well in earnings season. These “market conditions” are also against the backdrop of what has been a super-premium IPO market.

It may take a bit for the dust to settle here because this was widespread disruption. That being said, we would start to look at a contrarian outlook now that the sector is on sale for those investors who invest with a multiyear horizon. Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) took it on the chin the worst of the lot, and it is not easy to bet against Bill Gates for too long in his post-software investments.

JON C. OGG

Many investors might actually hope that we do get a 10% correction so that they can get into stocks again.  Recent reports have shown that the average investor has still shied away from stocks in favor of the safety of bonds.  The DJIA peaked above 13,300 in March after having ended 2011 at 12,217.56.  It is hard to imagine this, but the DJIA had a low of under 6,500 in early 2009 at the peak of the panic selling.  That was back to 10,000 by October of 2009 and the market is above 13,000 at the current time.  Is it possible that the DJIA has really doubled from the lows and Joe Public has not participated at all?

We want to take a look at the valuations, dividend yields, performance, and underlying trends driving some of the key industry leaders which have already reported earnings and offered guidance in order to get a better handle on what to expect for the coming summer.

Chrysler is also acting as a strong barometer for U.S. auto sales, even if the highly-volatile durable goods orders have been weak for two months.  While the retail segment is marred by a couple of undercurrents right now, sales have remained positive in 2012 when some were expecting some negative overall numbers. Now we also have a fresh report calling for at least 8% dividend growth from DJIA stocks this year and the components have so far been hiking dividends above what was expected.

We have taken a look at the following: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) in banking; General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) as the conglomerate leader (and economic barometer); Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) as a leading indicator of the metals markets; Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) as the construction and super-heavy equipment leader; Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) as the tech leaders; Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) not as a DJIA component but as an asset class; and Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) as the American leaders in Big Oil. We also want to consider E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD), or DuPont,

A Recent History of “Sell In May and Go Away”

2009 was a very different year because the market was recovering from the crash and stocks were still benefitting from that move.  2010 was a nasty start of summer as investors worried about a double-dip recession as housing prices continued to sink and unemployment was still a prime concern.  We also faced that punishing event called ‘The Flash Crash.’ Another big distraction was BP PLC (NYSE: BP) for its disaster in the Gulf and America and the rest of the world was starting to consider some problems in nations called the PIIGS.  The market peaked around 11,300 in late April and had sunk to a 9,800 by early May.  Even around July 6 the DJIA was only around 10,200 and was only back up to almost 10,500 after the end of August around Labor Day.

2011 felt close to a repeat of 2010 with the worries not just about the PIIGS but about the possibilities of a U.S. debt rating downgrade which did ultimately come.  Housing was still in the tank and employment was not yet in a full-blown recovery in America. While the end of April to the end of May did see a drop of 800 points in the DJIA from almost 12,900 in late April and early May to just above 12,000 by late May and 11,900 by late June, it was late-July and August which were the cruel months for the DJIA as companies began to suffer serious earnings concerns. The DJIA bottomed out just under 10,600 in August.  By late-October the market was back above 12,000 again.

So, here we sit at the end of April in 2012 with a long road of political hate ahead of us, and an economy that is still sluggish but one which not go into recession.  Right now the labor data is still choppy even though unemployment is down to 8.2% due to lower labor force participation rates.  Earnings growth has slowed down and Europe remains a key concern with the stable European nations being a concern on top of the PIIGS.  The good news is that equity values remain attractive and the FOMC is still pledged to a policy of maintaining an “exceptionally low rate policy” through the end of 2014.

The Leading Companies As Economic Barometers

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) are the two DJIA money-center banking leaders and they are both at discounts to their respective book values.  Both banks turned in earnings reports that show some stabilization even if mortgage woes remain a hangover from yesteryear.  2012 has also been a period of incredible recovery from an awful 2011.  Bank of America effectively doubled from trough to peak from late 2011 to the end of the first quarter and at $8.26 it has a consensus analyst target of effectively $10 that implies upside of close to 21%.  J.P. Morgan is around $43 it has risen 35% from trough to peak from late 2011 to the present time.  Its dividend yield is back up to almost 3% and the price target of about $52.80 implies upside of almost 23%.

If you combine the losses in the major stocks around solar, wind, and other alternative energies, the losses are billions and billions of dollars in the American companies alone.  We have outlined the profile of each exchange traded fund and we have covered some of the losses elsewhere.  We have tracked 20 stocks in a portfolio over the last year in the alternative energy sector and it is shocking that only 4 of the 20 stocks are not down by more than 50% from their 52-week highs.  It is even worse that 10 of the 20 stocks are down by at least 70% from their 52-week highs if you include the implosions.

We used FinViz performance metrics for the returns, or a lack of returns.  We counted the assets under management directly from each ETF’s website, although we would note that outflows of assets have been seen on top of absolute losses in share price.

First Trust Global Wind Energy (AMEX: FAN) is full of mostly foreign issue holdings and even the king of wind power called Vestas in Europe only has about a 6% weighting with other names coming from Europe and China.  On Friday morning it was trading at $7.17 versus a 52-week range of $7.09 to $12.20.  The loss here over the last year is about 38%.  Assets under management: $24.8 million

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index (NASDAQ: QCLN) is very thinly traded and at $10.10 on Friday it has a 52-week range of $9.00 to $17.02.  It aims to track the NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index and is supposed to invest at least 90% of assets in common stocks that comprise the index.  Some names are not exactly what investors might consider as green, but Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) and Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) are each weighted more than 7%.  The loss here is 36.6% over the last year.  Assets under management: $18.7 million

Guggenheim Solar (AMEX: TAN) is full of solar stocks which are both domestic and also trade as ADRs from foreign issues which you probably know well if you follow the solar sector.  It invests at least 90% of its assets in common stocks which make up the MAC Global Solar Energy Index.  At $22.77, the 52-week trading range is $22.00 to $88.70 and this has lost 69% over the last year.  Assets under management: $60.7 million

Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (AMEX: KWT) is also full of solar stocks, but many do not trade in the United States.  The Van Eck Global ETF aims to track the Ardour Solar Energy Index and puts at least 80% of its assets into common stocks in the index.  At $3.39 it has a 52-week range of $3.29 to $13.08 and this one is down 69.9% from a year ago. Assets under management: $12.7 million

PowerShares Global Wind Energy (NASDAQ: PWND) is thinly traded and aims to track the NASDAQ OMX Clean Edge Global Wind Energy Index.  The ETF is full of companies which are not US-based and which are not even traded in the U.S. markets. The top 5 names account for more than 40% weighting and the names are China Longyuan Power Group, EDP Renovaveis, ENEL Green Power, Vestas Wind Systems, and China High Speed Transmission Equipment.  At $6.49, its 52-week range is $6.41 to $11.29, and the shares are down 40.8% from a year ago. Assets under management: $13.4 million

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (AMEX: PBW) invests in all forms of clean energy and invests in companies globally.  Eight of ten of its largest weightings do trade in the U.S. and it invests 80% of its assets into common stocks in the WilderHill Clean Energy Index.  At $5.15 it has a 52-week trading range of $4.80 to $10.38 and it is down over 46% over the last year.  Assets under management: $181.1 million

The only good news about the current value of more than $300 million ETFs above is that they have at least not fallen anywhere near as much as some of the key companies which Americans have tried to invest their retirement and speculative money in.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) is down over 84% over the last year and it still has a market value of $1.8 billion.  The loss here is about $8 billion over the last year in what is supposed to be America’s best solar bet.  First Solar generated $2.76 billion in sales in 2011.  It is currently among the worst stock charts in technology.

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) received a huge purchase of a majority stake by Total but that has not kept its shares from sliding and sliding.  At $5.62, its 52-week range is $4.94 to $22.36, and shares are down over 63% over the last year and Total is down probably about 70% in value on this one.  Its market value is now barely $650 million but it generated over $2.1 billion in sales in 2011.

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (NYSE: WFR) is down 69% over the last year and at $3.50 its 52-week range is $3.31 to $12.00.  Its market value is still more than $800 million and its total revenue in 2011 was $2.71 billion.  The loss is far worse when you consider that this was a $90 stock at the peak of the alternative energy and oil boom in 2008.

The losses here have been in the billions and it only scratches the surface on the alternative energy sector losses.  This takes no consideration of the disappearance of Evergreen Solar, Energy Conversion, Solyndra, and Solar Trust.  This also skips over the ethanol losses as well. We do not want to only seem one-sided here even if billions upon billions of real money has been lost in the alternative energy sector that is reminiscent of the losses after the dot-com bubble burst a decade ago.  Some of the blame may be austerity and Chinese dumping, but investor losses do not come with an asterisk in the monthly statements.

The losses in alternative energy are massive, but oil companies have generated trillions of dollars in sales. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is worth $401 billion in market value and sales for all of 2011 were $486.4 billion.  Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is worth about $203 billion in market value and it generated $253.7 billion in sales in 2011.  This also marks the two-year anniversary of the BP PLC (NYSE: BP) oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and BP generated the equivalent of $375 billion in sales in 2011.

It is sad to make jokes about losses this big, but a couple quickly come to mind:

• Alternative energy stocks and ETFs have turned 401K plans into 201K or 101K plans.
• How do make a small fortune? Take a large fortune and buy some alternative energy funds.

JON C. OGG

The report is said to be based upon an independent estimate from SRK Consulting of Lakewood, Colorado, a mining consulting firm that specializes in such estimates.

The news is said to put Molycorp’s reserves up at 18.4 million short tons of rare earth ore (at an ore grade of 7.98% and a cut-off grade of 5%) versus a prior 2010 estimate of proven and probable reserves of 13.6 million short tons.  The data is showing that a cut-off grade of 5% used by SRK far exceeds the head-grades of most other known rare earth projects around the world.

Molycorp further noted, “SRK now estimates that the proven and probable component of Molycorp’s ore body contains approximately 2.94 billion pounds (1.3 million metric tons) of contained rare earth oxide (REO) equivalent. This compares to the previous estimate of 2.24 billion pounds of contained REO product (1.02 million metric tons).”

Shares of Molycorp ar enow up about 1.5% at $33.69 ahead of the opening bell and the 52-week trading range is $23.05 to $79.16.

JON C. OGG