If you take a look at the ADRs of The Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) and Allied Irish Banks plc (NYSE: AIB), these have not exactly had a good week.  They are both actually still very active in the U.S. and for all practical purposes they are wards of Ireland.  Investors today might want to consider that investing new money into these stocks may be a bit like buying into an orphanage rather than investing into a bank.

Bank of Ireland (NYSE: IRE) shares were above $1.50 last Friday and the stock hit a low of $1.20 this past Tuesday and shares closed at $1.27 on Thursday.  Now its 52-week range is $1.20 to $4.86.  Allied Irish Banks plc (NYSE: AIB) shares were at $2.66 last Friday, shares hit a low of $2.40 on Wednesday and closed at $2.42 on Thursday.  The adjusted 52-week range is $2.00 to $15.25.  The news this last week only sets up for more drama to come this summer.

Where this gets interesting is that AIB and BofI creditors are pushing back yet again.  Concessions have been made, haircuts have been taken.  Dow Jones wrote this week that a group of AIB bondholders are challenging Ireland’s new powers, saying that the government is bullying and demonizing creditors as AIB is set to impose losses of up to 90% in the subordinated debt.

Bank of Ireland has been in talks with bondholders as it is trying to raise new capital with buying back junior debt for issuing new shares under a rights issue.  It is this new rights issue price talk that is still out to late June and the talk was around 11.3 to 11.7 cents in Ireland on the local exchange.  In Dublin, those ordinary shares trade at 13.5 cents and the 52-week range is 0.133 to 1.75 in local terms.  With restructuring and creditor discussions taking place all summer and with a deep discount expected, suddenly it is no wonder that ADR shares here in America keep putting in new lows.

What we cannot help but wonder is why on earth these banks have not considered a state-side (U.S. that is) discussion.  American institutions seem more than eager to invest in garbage if trash is sold cheap enough.  Maybe the worry is that hedge funds will be able to overpower the specialists in these shares at the NYSE.

The Wall Street Journal noted Merkel’s need of 10 to 20 gigawatts of fossil capacity need to be built over the next decade.   Those 20 gigawatts are essentially equal to the amount of electricity Germany currently generates from its 17 nuclear plants. And these 20 gigawatts will be built in addition to another 10 gigawatts already under development and set to be completed by 2013.

Whether Germany builds new fossil fuel plants or new solar or wind plants, the country’s electricity grid needs to be upgraded. Germany is expected to spend at least 9.7 billion euros to build more than 2,200 miles of cables to connect new generation capacity with consumers. This project is a real boon to infrastructure providers like ABB Ltd. (NYSE: ABB), Siemens AG (NYSE: SI), Schneider Electric S.A. (OTC: SBGSY), Alstom SA (OTC: ALSMY) and General Electric.

Other companies that could benefit from Germany’s need for an improved grid is American Superconducter Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC), which makes high-efficiency superconducting wire used for electricity transmission, and General Cable Corp. (NYSE: BGC).

There are also two relatively small ETFs that offer a investment opportunity in the buildout of the global energy grid. The larger of the two is First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (NASDAQ: QCLN), which tracks the NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index. The fund’s largest five holdings are National Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE: NSM), Linear Technology Corp. (NASDAQ: LLTC), First Solar, ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: ONNN), and Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE). QCLN’s net assets total $37.2 million, and it’s year-to-date return is negative, at -2%. Since its creation in February 2007, the fund’s NAV has declined by -4.01%. Shares are lightly traded and opened today at $14.85, within a 52-week range of $12.93-$18.39.

The even smaller grid fund is the First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund (NASDAQ: GRID). The fund’s five largest holdings are Red Electrica Corp. S.A., NGK Insulators Ltd., Prysmian SpA, Schneider Electric, and Quanta Services, Inc. (NYSE: PWR). The fund seeks returns equal to the NASDAQ OMX Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index before expenses. The fund was created in November 2009 and its lifetime NAV is 12.66%. The fund’s net assets total just $27 million, and like QCLN, it is very lightly traded. The shares opened today at $32.06, within a 52-week range of $26.84-$35.82.

Building out the global grid is likely to cost $500 billion.  And much of the work hasn’t even started yet. Germany’s shift away from nukes forces the country to upgrade its grid, whether it wants to or not. This is definitely something worth watching.

Paul Ausick

Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) is the IPO that may have been the bubble of all bubbles as the company’s accounting issues and accounting officer resignation came right before the IPO.  The investment bankers should have known better than to bring this one out.  Shares are now under $11.00 and keep hitting new lows.  The post-IPO range is $10.40 to $24.00.  “The Facebook of China” was really the “Face&^%$ of China.”

NetQin Mobile Inc. (NYSE: NQ) was supposed to be the mobile security winner in China, but it has been taken to the woodshed since coming public as well.  This ADR is now around $5.00 and its post-IPO range is $4.82 to $11.90.

Qihoo 360 Technology Co. (NYSE: QIHU) was one we already accused the street of getting wrong right from the start.  Qihoo closed under $22 and its post-IPO range is now only $20.10 to $36.21.

Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is actually indicated slightly higher this morning but shares were under $121 on Wednesday against a 52-week range of $65.90 to $156.04.  The drop was “only 10%” in the last four days, but the valuation here remains high for the leader of search in China.

Shanda Interactive Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ: SNDA) is the online content and MMORPG game provider in China and it has been drummed.  This is a real business that generates real revenues with 25% annual growth and 7% sequential growth at its last report.   Down at $36.67, this just hit a new 52-week low this morning and the new 52-week range is $36.25 to $54.20. This was at $50 as recently as May 11 and now trades at what many would call a cheap 20-times earnings, what a twist of fate.

Sina Corp. (NASDAQ: SINA) was just above $120 four days ago.  Now the stock is under $100.  Wow. Shares are indicated under $96.00 this morning versus a 52-week range of $34.26 to $147.12.  SINA is a leading online media company and mobile value-added service and its sales were up 18% at its most recent earnings.  The beatings continue.

LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) gets to deal with poor markets AND a poor solar situation and it will have to pay attention here for its coming unit spin-off.  And to add another mix in, now a blank check company has filed to come public that intends to acquire a natural resources company in Mongolia.

So, there is a reason to focus on these.  The “when” depends upon more factors than can be said quickly.  The markets have been sliding with a drop even in the U.S. each day in June so far.  We are challenging six consecutive weeks of lower share prices in the U.S. as well.  When a bounce will come is up to the markets, but it does not take a genius to say that a massive oversold market bounce is due even if the only reason is that the market is oversold.

Whenever that bounce comes, it will be some of these ADRs named here that perform the best.

JON C. OGG

The other candidate for the IMF job is former Mexican central bank head Agustin Carstens. He is a favorite of many of the countries outside the US and EU. He could be a bridge between Mexican allies, which include the US, and developing nations like Brazil.

The question is whether Agustin Carstens has the stamina and endurance to perform this job over a long period of time. This has nothing to do with his intellectual gifts or his long-time role as a financial policy maker. Among other credentials he has a Ph.D.in economics from the University of Chicago. He was also Mexico’s minister of finance from early 2006 to early 2009. The issue about Carstens is that, at 54, he is morbidly obese. Many people would say that weight should not rule him out as a possible IMF head and the subject is generally taboo. But, obesity does have a recognized effect on health and energy and increases the risk of many serious illnesses in a middle aged man .Dominique Strauss-Kahn had a grueling schedule over the course of the long period in which he served as the IMF director.  The economic crisis only increased the tremendous  amounts of travel and grueling hours of work.

The issue of obesity could be seen as  discrimination and in many cases it would be. However the next head of the IMF will be managing both the crisis in Europe and the broader issues of the role that the countries of the old world and the new have in the agency’s agenda. Is health a critical factor in the selection of the next IMF head. It is a fair topic to raise about Agustin Carstens, particularly when the demands on the organization and its director are greater than ever.

Douglas A. McIntyre

The three largest miners, BHP Billiton plc (NYSE: BHP), Vale SA (NYSE: VALE), and Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RIO), account for about 50% of the total market cap of the Top 40. The top company as measured by total shareholder return was Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW), with a return of 160% for 2010. The largest production increases came from potash. The leader there is Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT)

The interesting thing about reviews, of course, is that they point out some direction for the future. In mining sectoe, the trends are that demand is being driven by growth in emerging market countries; that supply is becoming more constrained as projects become more complex; and that lower ore grades and labor shortages are driving up the industry’s cost base.

Another interesting development during 2010 saw large gold companies such as Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) acquire properties that contain significant copper as well as gold.

The principal driver of revenues and profits in 2010 was rising prices, urged ever upward by increased demand. Production grew by just 5%, according to PwC, not enough by itself to stoke a 32% rise in revenue. Prices made the difference.

To keep up the pace in 2011, higher prices alone won’t do the job. Cost containment could rule. PwC notes that despite record prices in 2010, adjusted EBITDA is no higher than in 2006 or 2007, both boom years for miners. The cost base has shifted upward because energy costs are higher, capital costs are higher, labor costs are higher — and there is virtually no chance these costs will fall. If anything, they are likely to continue rising.

The bullion ETFs, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) were big buyers of the precious metals in 2010. Gold ETFs hold about 70 million ounces of gold, more than double total Top 40 gold production in 2010.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ), and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: SIL) all posted share price gains in 2010, with SIL gaining the most, around 63%.

Paul Ausick

The company will raise some $70,000,000.00 via the sale of 7,000,000 units. Each unit will come at the standard blank check offering price of $10.00 per share and will consist of one ordinary share and one warrant.  Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one ordinary share at a price of $12.00.

The underwriters of the offering were listed as Deutsche Bank Securities and Odeon Capital Group and the company also granted the underwriters a 45-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,050,000 units to cover over-allotments, if any.

Blue Wolf Mongolia Holdings Corp. is a newly organized British Virgin Islands blank check company which will “seek to capitalize on the significant strength of our management team to identify, acquire and operate a business operating primarily in Mongolia, although we may pursue acquisition opportunities in other geographic regions.”

Limitations are nil as the company may pursue an acquisition opportunity in any business industry or sector.  It did note in the filing that it intends to focus on the natural resources sector and any related sectors due to its management team’s background.  It can also focus on other geographic regions outside of Mongolia if such opportunities are better able to provide attractive financial returns.

The full filing is here and that shows the management team’s background and other disclosures.  Genghis Khan would be proud.

JON C. OGG

Revenue for the current quarter is forecasted to be $550 million to $600 million with earnings of ($0.05) to $0.10. For the current quarter, Thomson Reuters estimates are $0.23 EPS and $541.98 million in sales.  For the year, the revenues were put at $2.80 billion to $2.95 billion and non-GAAP income was put at $1.20 to $1.70 EPS.  Thomson Reuters estimates are $1.79 EPS and $2.69 billion in revenues.

On the high-end of the matrix that would generate a forward P/E ratio of almost 17.5.  On the low-end that is about 12.3, and in the middle of the range that is about 15-times non-GAAP earnings.

The biggest issue focuses on changes to Italian solar policy this year.  The impact will be significant on the global solar market.  The company claims to have rebalanced its product allocation in Italy away from power plants and toward the European residential and commercial business where demand remains strong. Still, the company does note that systems sold through its R&C channel yield less profit per watt than systems deployed in self-developed power plant projects.  in short, our thesis of lower and lower margins is remaining intact.

Perhaps the biggest issue is the company’s comment about the road ahead.  It noted, “we expect the current global pricing pressure to persist through 2011 and, as a result, we are planning full-year 2011 non-GAAP gross margins to be in the range of 17% to 19%.”

SunPower claims to be taking aggressive steps to “actively manage manufacturing and operating expenses” and that it is working with suppliers “to modify contracts to reflect current market conditions.”

The company believes that its balance sheet management and manufacturing optimization will coincide with the $1 billion credit support agreement with Total (NYSE: TOT) to position it to gain market share profitably.

2011 GAAP results will be impacted by certain “one-time, pre-tax charges” of $14 million to $29 million related to its reallocation strategy, including $11 to $21 million in the second quarter. SunPower also expects GAAP results in Q2 to reflect $13 to $15 million in pre-tax expenses related to the outstanding Total tender offer.

SunPower shares closed up 0.5% at $20.95 against a 52-week range of $9.61 to $22.60.  Before the Total-deal was announced, SunPower shares were at $16.12.  After the deal was announced, the shares rose to $21.69 that day.  Total did not acquire the company outright but the street is treating it as though the floor is now considerably higher than before the terms were announced regardless of what comes out of Italy.  At the same time as the guidance call, SunPower and Total did announce that the firms confirmed their intention to close on the Total transaction where it would buy 60% of the A-Shares and B-shares at $23.25 per share.

SunPower shares are currently indicated right at $20.95 as the last after-hours trade and there have been some 68,627 shares traded as of 4:25 PM EST per the NASDAQ after-hours quote system.

JON C. OGG

Cash grain prices have fallen recently and one reason could be that farmers are now selling off their stored 2010-2011 “old” crop inventory. Potential flooding along the Missouri River may have caused farmers to sell now rather than risk having the stored bushels damaged by floodwaters. The irony is that much of the flooding is being caused by the Army Corp of Engineers as it seeks to protect populated areas by flooding rural areas. Given the high-water conditions now and the amount of snowpack still left in the mountains at the headwaters of the Missouri, the threat of man-made flooding could be with us through July.

This round of selling has begun to replenish inventories at grain terminals and processors. If inventory builds continue, then harvest shortages in the fall could be mitigated somewhat. That would tend to keep the price of corn under some pressure.

In China, the government’s National Grain and Oils Information Center has declared that it is very unlikely that China will become more dependent on corn imports to meet its growing demand. The Center noted that China has about the same amount of acreage planted in corn as does the US, but that Chinese yields are only half US yields.

That sounds like very good news for fertilizer makers such as Potash Corp. and Mosaic, but there’s a catch. China is widely suspected of cooking its data on almost everything it produces, and data on agricultural production is no different. For example, China claimed a corn crop of 160 million metric tons in 2009, though there were several analysts inside the country who pegged production at less than 140 million tons.

In 2010, China imported about 1.6 million metric tons of corn. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that the country will import about 1 million metric tons this year, based on expectations of another bumper crop. But what if the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 crop totals were juiced?

There are two possible reasons for China to fiddle with the numbers. First is to keep international market prices lower so that when the country does have to buy the prices won’t be sky-high. Second, provincial governments are rewarded for large harvests, so exaggerating production pays off.

If China’s statement about its yields being just half US yields is true, that is potentially very good news for fertilizer makers and equipment machinery makers. Potash Corp., Mosaic, and Deere, among others, could benefit as China seeks to improve its yields.

The Teucrium Corn Fund invests in corn futures traded in Chicago, and intends to replicate daily changes on weighted averages of closing prices three futures contracts.

MOO’s largest holding is Deere and its second largest is Potash Corp. It’s next four largest holdings are also fertilizer makers. DBA is like CORN and holds futures contracts in a variety of liquid and widely traded ag commodities.

In trading today, ADM is nearly flat at just after noon ET, at $30.25, within a 52-week range of $24.42-$38.02. Deere is also essentially flat, at $81.76, in a 52-week range of $52.73-$99.80.  Potash Corp. is also flat, at $54.02, within a 52-week range of $27.95-$63.97.

In the realm of ETF products… CORN is up more than 1%, to $45.51, in a 52-week range of $23.79-$48.77.  MOO is up slightly, at $53.12, within a 52-week range of $35.62-$57.93.  DBA is up about 0.70%, to $32.48, in a 52-week range of $22.87-$35.58.

Paul Ausick

Bloomberg reported that GE was all-cash and that Capital One was a cash and stock bid, but this would effectively give control of the largest U.S. online bank.  GE had been trying to gear down its financial portfolio, so this could mark an end to Jeff Immelt’s contraction of the conglomerates financial portfolio.  Capital One already has substantial credit card business outside of its brick and mortar bank, and this would be one more step toward keeping its activities in higher margin operations.

It is ING’s more than $80 billion in deposits that is attractive.  This would effectively be cheaper access to capital.  Unfortunately, there is also about $40 billion in mortgage loans and nearly $20 billion in mortgage-backed securities that would have to be dealt with.

We have another take to consider if this comes to fruition.  If ING Direct does get acquired, then investors will have little choice but to focus attention back on E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC).  Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE: SCHW) and TD AMERITRADE Holding Corporation (NASDAQ: AMTD) have both been named as likely suitors in the past for E*TRADE and now that E*TRADE is profitable again we think that a suitor could justify taking on the remaining red-line items that E*TRADE has been trying to pare down.

E*TRADE currently has a market capitalization of about $3.2 billion.  A $9 billion price tag for ING Direct might make E*TRADE come back in focus.

One caveat to consider…. Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) was heavily reported on selling its online bank called Egg in the United Kingdom and earlier this year it sold its entire Egg credit card portfolio to Barclays Bank of Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) with over $3 billion in gross assets in the Egg portfolio representing about 1.15 million customer accounts.  We just saw a $1 billion in credit card assets acquired by Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF) last night as well.

Maybe all of the reports and concerns about the future of bank profitability are overblown, or at least certain aspects of those bank operations.

JON C. OGG

The transaction with Germany’s largest telecom firm may be a bit of revenge for the biggest nation in the EU by GDP. Germany must provide a significant portion of any money which is loaned to Greece. Many voters in Germany are against that.

The trouble with the Greek telecom sale is that it is so modest. The government could have swung some EU anti-bailout sentiment opinion  in its favor if it had announced several sales valued in the billions of dollars. The Hellenic Telecommunications Organization plan shows that Greece will sell assets relatively slowly, even though it has assets which could be sold soon. This could almost immediately include ownership positions in its Post Savings Bank and the State Lottery Tickets businesses.

The citizens of the EU and financiers who hold Greek debt will see the telecom transaction as so small as to be an insult. Other bailed out countries such as Portugal could also be slow to sell government assets. All this will do is convince the capital markets that these countries think they can get better terms by stalling because they feel that the EU is desperate to save the euro. That desperation is not worth counting on. Public opinion and EU treasuries have their limits and current reluctance to re-finance Greece shows that.

Douglas A. McIntyre