Sources vary from all over the web, and mainstream media articles often have different figures when they are close together in time.  Official sales data is not updated all the time.  Still, the $30 billion franchise value is heading up now because of the 3D launch of ”Star Wars: The Phantom Menace” as the (probable) first but not last of the Star Wars remakes coming in 3D.

The relaunch of the movie franchise in 3D is likely to boost the franchise’s value much more when you count ticket sales, and then tally up merchandise sales, new media sales, product sales and more.  Box Office Mojo noted that The Phantom Menace in 3D is going to appear in 2,655 theaters.  Throw in the intellectual property values and future sales, and the value will head far north of $30 billion. 

It was just in 2007 that Forbes noted, “Star Wars’ initial release was followed by another five blockbuster films and a mini-industry of tapes and DVDs, toys, video games and books. Taken together over its 30 years of cultural dominance, the Star Wars franchise has earned more than $22 billion.”   Another figure in late 2011 put the total Star Wars franchise value at a whopping $27 billion from Statistic Brain (using Forbes and Lucasfilm data).  We also have gathered more recent data than those prior calculations.

Star Wars creator George Lucas is now a multi-billionaire.  The Forbes wealthiest 400 list puts Lucas at a net worth of $3.2 billion in its September 2011 report and that is lower than the $3.6 billion in a prior report.

Read Also: The Most Valuable Film Franchises of All-Time

Another 2007 figure used by Forbes was a monstrous $9 billion in toys with another $1.6 billion at the time having been generated by Star Wars video games.  More toys have sold since then, and more video game sales have been seen.

Brand new data from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) shows over 2 million MMORPG have sold of ‘Star Wars: The Old Republic’ through the end of January with some 1.7 million online users.  Taking just half of the users with a two-month average life of subscriber dollars comes to $180 million in total revenues between sales and subscriptions in just the first quarter of 2012.  Then there will be the tail revenue stream from loyalists and those in the next upgrade coming soon, generating millions of dollars more each month. If the success remains, a business mind would easily predict another MMORPG sale in the future.

Lucas Licensing of Lucasfilms has noted over $20 billion in consumer sales worldwide.  This includes Hasbro, Inc. (NASDAQ: HAS) and Kenner toys, merchandise sold, over 100 million books sold (with over 80 New York Times best sellers), museum exhibitions, apparel, consumer electronics, housewares, and the endless lines of other products.  The $20 billion figure has been used for quite some time as well by Lucasfilm on its site.  Imagine the sales that will soon be counted if you just looked at the major retail store websites: Toys R Us had 603 items; WalMart had 539 items; and Target had 800 items.

The Total Value of Star Wars Today…

• $4.27 Billion in worldwide box office sales (See full chart below), not adjusted for ticket price hikes in today’s dollars
• $20 billion in Licensing sales (toys, books, apparel, consumer products, and on)
• $3 billion in video games (over 100 million units sold)
• $2.5 billion, and climbing, in DVD sales
• $800 million (or more) and climbing in movie rentals (going from DVD back to VHS and even Betamax)

THE GRAND TOTAL… $30.57 BILLION, and growing…

Forget about the $30.5 billion in total sales so far.  That assumes that all sales suddenly stop in the next few weeks. We will not count the $3.2 billion in net worth of George Lucas because that is a personal net worth even if there is overlap in some of the areas we would cover.

Hiring solutions sales were up 136% to $84.9 million, marketing solutions rose 77% to $49.5 million, and premium subscriptions were up 87% to $33.3 million of the total sales. U.S. revenue was $112 million, or about 67% of total revenues.

The company is putting its first quarter of 2012 sales at $170 to $175 million against estimates of $170.79 million.

For 2012, the social network for professionals is projecting $840 million to $860 million versus about $828.2 million expected.  It also sees full 2012 adjusted EBITDA of $155 million to $165 million (versus $98.7 million for 2011).

The headlines appear to have caused a head-fake.  The stock initially fell on the $0.06 EPS headline, but the shares are up over 4% at $79.87 currently in the after-hours.  Until we see more report data, we will hold off on casting a final verdict.

Since the IPO last summer it has traded in a range of $55.98 to $122.70.  It also claims more than 150 million users now.

JON C. OGG

Groupon’s shares dropped 15% after its announcement that it lost money in the fourth quarter of last year. It said its “active customers” rose 275% from the same period a year ago to 33 million. Revenue jumped 194% to $506.5 million. And Groupon said sales in the first quarter would be as little as $510 million, up “only”73% from last year. Then Groupon claimed it would continue to have outsized investments for marketing. Many investors are worried that the use of online coupons is a model that consumers adopted only briefly, as well as that rivals like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) have similar services. Beyond that, the lingering issue is whether people clip coupons more than they watch videos, communicate by text or hang out on Facebook. There are only so many hours in an internet day.

People clearly spend a lot of time on Facebook, but there is a debate over what they do. A set of research from Citi released last fall said that people are on Facebook for 16% of their time online, on average. The number eclipsed time spent on Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). But how long does it take to do a successful search on Google before the user moves to a site the search uncovered? Google remains a utility as much as anything else, with search results mixed with ads on similar subjects. It is a nearly perfect match of content and marketing messages, as Google’s numbers have shown. Facebook’s 850 million users interact with friends and acquaintances, for hours it seems, but wandering people are hard to target, even with data on behavior and demographics. Facebook had less than $4 billion in revenue last year. So Wall St. wonders whether the people on the social network care at all about the ads that they see.

There is a cottage industry of research about why people visit online sites, whether they watch video on PCs or TV, and why some websites are better for advertisers than others. None of the research is conclusive enough, at least from the standpoint of many people who review it, to convince experts that time spent on Facebook or Groupon can ever yield the kind of revenue garnered by Amazon.com and Google. At least Amazon and Google can demonstrate a long history of interaction that yields a steady and growing stream of revenue. Each has a future likely to be as good as its past as far as revenue and profits are concerned. Facebook and Groupon have not yet cleared that hurdle.

Douglas A. McIntyre

This shows Indemnification of Directors and Officers, changes to plan-related share issuances, other common stock issuances, a full list of acquisitions, Exhibits and Financial Statement Schedules and more.

The full amended IPO filing is here.

There is no public market for Facebook shares as of yet, so the fallout here should be minimal other than the news reporting about how fast the changes are.

JON C. OGG

An unfavorable impact from foreign exchange was $3.5 million in sales.  Gross billings (the first revenue counting) is the gross amounts collected from customers for Groupons sold and excludes taxes and net of estimated refunds… That rose by 201% to $1.25 billion in the fourth quarter.

The company “helped 250,000 local merchants across 47 countries grow their businesses while saving Groupon customers billions of dollars.”

Operating income was $15.0 million in the fourth quarter 2011, compared with a loss from operations of $336.1 million in the fourth quarter 2010.  This was the first positive quarter on operating income.  Fourth quarter 2011 operating results included losses of over $40 million principally from less mature markets within the international segment.

Operating cash flow increased 226% to $169.1 million for the quarter; Free cash flow rose 258% to $155.1 million for the quarter. Groupon also finished with $1.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no long-term debt.

Here is first quarter guidance: Revenue $510 million to $550 million; income from operations of $15 million to $35 million (includes approximately $35 million for stock-based compensation and acquisition-related expense).  Next quarter’s revenue target from Thomson Reuters is $500.89 million.

The headline loss is killing the stock initially.  After a near two-percent gain to $24.66, Groupon is down 12% at $21.70 in the after-hours session.

JON C. OGG

The move will allow Coinstar to look a bit more like Netflix as far as a physical video rental and a streaming video model.  This supposedly comes with all of the convenience, simplicity and value of Redbox.

A subscription service will launch in the second half of 2012 and the brand and product information will be revealed in the coming months.

The offerings will be instantly available online and mobile content with immediate access to physical media through rental kiosks.  The joint venture is a limited liability company with Verizon holding a 65 percent ownership share and Redbox holding a 35 percent ownership share at the outset.

Coinstar shares are up 6.5% at $53.00 against a 52-week range of $37.43 to $60.71; Netflix is down 3.4% at $122.10 against a 52-week range of $74.25 to $304.79.

JON C. OGG

• Feb 01 traded 125,300 shares and closed at $14.59
• Jan 31 traded 58,300 shares and closed at $14.25
• Jan 30 traded 33,400 shares and closed at $14.28
• Jan 27 traded 16,200 shares and closed at $14.20
• Jan 26 traded 400 shares and closed at $13.50
• Jan 25 traded 1,300 shares and closed at $13.59

We said it before and we will say it again… This ETF owns no shares of Facebook as of yet.  It will have to after the Facebook IPO but it does not now.  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) owns shares but barely rose today.  Affiliates of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) own shares, and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) owns shares.  The social media company only has a halo-effect around the theme of social media.

Facebook is and was one of our Top 17 IPOs For 2012, but so was Twitter, Living Social and Yelp.

LinkedIn Corporation (NYSE: LNKD) closed up 6.4% at $76.98 solely on being a rival and Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) rose 16% to $12.39 due to its being north of 10% of Facebook’s revenues.

What is so funny is that even FriendFinder Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN), the adult-themed social networking site and one of the worst IPOs of modern time, rose solely because of the social media halo.  That gain was 16% to $1.33 against a 52-week range (actually under a year) of $0.51 to $10.01.

The one business development company which does own Facebook shares is GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC).  Its shares have risen since the impending filing was telegraphed last Friday and the stock rose by over 7% to $18.51 today.

This is called the Halo-effect if there ever was one.

Facebook’s full IPO details are here.

JON C. OGG

The company is aiming to bring a site for serious collectors and sports fans and offer a broad selection from official licensees of the National Football League, Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, and the International Federation of Association Football.

Collectors can now browse collectible items by item type, sport, year, team and price.  The offerings will be from trading cards and ticket stubs to game-used jerseys and autographed sports gear.

For many of these products, the store will display the authentication source and condition rating from authentication service providers like Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA) of Collectors Universe, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT), and other such as James Spence Authentication (JSA) and Beckett Grading Services (BGS).

You will not find that T206 Honus Wagner baseball card for sale that we just discussed.  That is for sale for $775,000 and a higher-grade sample just sold for north of $1.5 million.  More detail on investing in the T206 Honus Wagner is here.

As far as how Amazon will assure authenticity, it noted “The emphasis on authenticated selection, combined with our A-to-z Guarantee protection on purchases, allows customers to shop the new store with confidence.”

Buyers should know that this may distort prices paid in many cases.  If a wife or girlfriend wants to buy an item for an intimate other or if a father or mother want to buy collectibles for their kids, they may not have a firm grasp on the prevailing market price ranges that should be paid.

This will not derail the eBay auction dominance nor will it kill the auction houses which auction off the really high-end items.  What it may skew is all of the items out on the market in the under-$50 to $300 priced items.  The baseball memorabilia store’s top 7 items by price are all Babe Ruth signed baseballs and the rank is from over $46,000 down to $10,950.  Thanks, but no thanks. 

Lastly, keep in mind that Amazon has been selling many collectibles items.  This launch is more of a focused effort and it means that Amazon wants to attract many more sellers. The new launch is here.

JON C. OGG

While Facebook has said that it is choosing the “FB” stock ticker, it did not specify whether or not the NYSE or NASDAQ would get the listing.  Keep in mind that Mark Zuckerberg is where the buck stops if you evaluate the share structure.

Be advised that there is a dual-class of stock with A shares and B shares.  Each share of Class A common stock is entitled to one vote per share. Each share of Class B common stock is entitled to ten votes per share and is convertible at any time into one share of Class A common stock.

The underwriting group is as follows: lead book-runners are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs; co-managers are BofA/Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, and Allen & Company.

BASIC STATS:

• 845 million monthly active users,
• 2.7 billion likes and comments per day,
• 250 million photos uploaded per day,
• and 100 billion friendships.
• The company also has 483 million daily active users.
• It also had roughly 3200 employees as of December 31.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is listed as a competitor and it is an owner, while Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is not an owner and is listed as a key competitor.  Twitter is competitor.  As a reminder, GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC) is an owner of stock as well.  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) still owns a small stake as well.

We are now finally getting to see at least some of the preliminary figures from Facebook to use for financial analysis:

• 2009 revenues $777M, $122M net income for shareholders;
• 2010 revenues $1.974B, $372M net income for shareholders;
• 2011 revenues $3.711B, $668M net income for shareholders.
• The company’s cash and marketable securities at the end of 2011 was $3.908 billion.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) accounted for about 12% of 2011 total revenues for Facebook.

Mark Zuckerberg owns 28.4% of the total voting power, but he has a proxy over insider shares that gives him 56.9% of the total voting power.  Other big holders are James Breyer at 11.4% and Peter A. Thiel at 2.5%.  Large Class B share holders (1 million or more shares) are Sheryl Sandberg, David Ebersman, Mike Schroepfer. Theodore Ullyor, Marc Andreesson…

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW) owns over 6 million class A shares and affiliates of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) own over 65.9 million Class A shares.

As of December 31, 2011 there were outstanding:

• 117,097,143 shares of our Class A common stock held by approximately 110 stockholders;
• 1,758,902,390 shares of our Class B common stock held by approximately 1,070 stockholders;
• 258,539,434 shares issuable upon exercise of outstanding stock options;
• 378,772,184 shares subject to outstanding restricted stock units (RSUs).

RISK FACTORS AS FOLLOWS:

• “If we fail to retain existing users or add new users, or if our users decrease their level of engagement with Facebook, our revenue, financial results, and business may be significantly harmed;”
• “We generate a substantial majority of our revenue from advertising. The loss of advertisers, or reduction in spending by advertisers with Facebook, could seriously harm our business;”
• “Growth in use of Facebook through our mobile products, where we do not currently display ads, as a substitute for use on personal computers may negatively affect our revenue and financial results;”
• “Facebook user growth and engagement on mobile devices depend upon effective operation with mobile operating systems, networks, and standards that we do not control;”
• “We may not be successful in our efforts to grow and further monetize the Facebook Platform;”
• “Our business is highly competitive, and competition presents an ongoing threat to the success of our business;”
• “Improper access to or disclosure of our users’ information could harm our reputation and adversely affect our business;”
• “Our business is subject to complex and evolving U.S. and foreign laws and regulations regarding privacy, data protection, and other matters. Many of these laws and regulations are subject to change and uncertain interpretation, and could harm our business;”
• “Our CEO has control over key decision making as a result of his control of a majority of our voting stock;”
• “The loss of Mark Zuckerberg, Sheryl K. Sandberg, or other key personnel could harm our business;”
• “We anticipate that we will expend substantial funds in connection with tax withholding and remittance obligations related to the initial settlement of our restricted stock units (RSUs) approximately six months following our initial public offering;”
• “The market price of our Class A common stock may be volatile or may decline, and you may not be able to resell your shares at or above the initial public offering price;”
• “Substantial blocks of our total outstanding shares may be sold into the market as “lock-up” periods end, as further described in “Shares Eligible for Future Sale.” If there are substantial sales of shares of our common stock, the price of our Class A common stock could decline.”

Again, the Top 17 IPOs to Watch in 2012 is here.

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JON C. OGG

The full S-1 SEC FILING is here.  PS… The traffic to the SEC.gov website was severely limited for almost an hour due to excessive traffic flooding the site due to readers wanting to read the Facebook S-1.

Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.19 EPS and $18.21 billion.  Keep in mind that this is the “money quarter” because of the holidays.  Amazon offers guidance usually and the estimates for the current quarter ahead ar $0.33 EPS on $13.41 billion in sales.  For all of 2012, the consensus target is $1.83 EPS and $65.42 billion in sales.

The big question we have is ultimately on margins, but we are more focused than just that tease.  The Kindles are reportedly sold at losses or razor-thin margins.  It is a “given the razor free and sell them lots of razor blades” model.  With millions of units now sold, we just have to wait and see what comes from Mr. Bezos.  The other issue is the endless costs of mail and packages. For the die-hard customers, Amazon often loses money on its mailing and UPS rates.

Amazon’s chart is at a critical juncture.  The key 200-day moving is higher at $202.30 while the 50-day moving average is lower at $185.81. With shares close to $192.00 today, the 52-week trading range is $160.59 to $246.71.

Analysts still have average price targets which are higher and the consensus mean target from Thomson Reuters is “Buy” oriented with a $233.90 target.

Options traders appear to be braced for a move of $11 to $12.50 ahead of earnings if you use the monthly options prices in puts and calls rather than the weekly expirations. Frankly, it seems as though the options traders may not be pricing in enough of a move because this quarter has the huge Kindle wild card associated with it.

JON C. OGG