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The Labor Department has released its Unemployment rate for February. The official figure kept at 9.7% versus a Dow Jones projection of 9.8%. The change in non-Farm Payrolls in February was -36,000, a drop that was lower than expectations but slightly higher than a -26,000 figure revision for January. Estimates were about -75,000 by Dow Jones.
Posts related to ‘Labor & Unions’
No Unemployment Bombshells in February
Weekly Jobless Data Prelude to Confusing Unemployment Report
The weekly jobless claims from the U.S. Labor Department showed a decline from the week before. The weekly claims fell by a 29,000 adjusted figure to 469,000 claims after last week’s figure was moved up to 498,000 versus a prior 496,000. The 4-week average also fell 3,500 to 470,750.
The big change here is in the army of unemployed measured by the continuing claims. The figure dropped by 134,000 to 4,500,000 from a revised 4,634,000 a week ago. This figure is still high yet appears to be a year low.
Weather is playing an issue in these figures. Some government offices in the Northeast have been closed or were on shorter hours as a result of major snow storms. Despite Larry Summers trying to prep us for a weak jobs figure on tomorrow’s unemployment report, there is no clear barometer or major change seen from any of this week’s labor data.
JON C. OGG
Jobless Claims Nearing Half-Million, Again
This morning’s weekly jobless claims from the Labor Department are showing a whole new round of concerns that perhaps the recently weak consumer confidence is due to the notion that jobs are not getting better. The weekly jobless claims rose by 22,000 to 496,000. Bloomberg had consensus pegged at 460,000.
If weekly jobless claims get back over 500,000 it will mark a psychological blow to the labor market situation. It will also confirm everyone’s notion that the recent drop in unemployment is due to math calculations and due to opt-outs or end of benefit periods rather than any real recovery.
The army of the unemployed via continuing jobless claims also rose by 6,000 to some 4.62 million.
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
JON C. OGG
Jobless Claims Heading in the Right Direction
The Labor Department has just released its data on weekly jobless claims and there was a drop of 43,000 to 440,000. Bloomberg consensus estimates from economists was listed as 467,000 jobless claims. Last week’s preliminary figure of 480,000 was revised to 483,000. The four-week average also fell by 1,000 to 468,500. The army of unemployed measured by the continuing jobless claims fell by 79,000 to 4.538 million, which is now the lowest level in more than a year. It was easy to pick on the unemployment figure because of those ‘opt-outs’ and the drop, but this week’s jobless claims on a seasonally adjusted basis are probably going to be well received.
JON C. OGG
FEBRUARY 11, 2010
Somehow, Some Way, Unemployment 9.7%
Many have said that the math from the US Labor Department is fuzzy, and today will only show further conversations of that notion. Despite the negative recent news in weekly jobless claims, the unemployment rate came in 9.7%… Bloomberg and Dow Jones were at 10.1% for expectations. The change in non-Farm payrolls was -20,000 versus expectations of a flat number.
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Growth Again… In Jobless Claims
The Labor Department released the weekly jobless claims data this morning, and whatever policies are being presented just are not helping on the hiring and firing front in the nation. The weekly jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 480,000 and the week ago data was revised slightly worse to 472,000 from 470,000. Dow Jones was looking for a 460,000 figure and Bloomberg had estimates yesterday at 455,000. As we have seen before, there are just fewer and fewer ways to look at this with any positive light or as though there is any meaningful jobs recovery coming.
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Signs Of The Apocalypse: Large Multinationals Layoff Over 60,000 In January
The large multinational companies were supposed to have done their layoffs during the first half of 2009, when the recession was at its worst. Those layoffs should have cut as close to the bone as possible because of the severity of the downturn. The workers who were left at these companies were probably more productive as managements tried to get more work out of fewer people.
Many analysts believe that many companies have fired too many people and that an improved economy will cause firms to hire anew to handle increased workloads brought on by renewed demand for their for goods and services.
But, it has not worked out that way at many companies. Several large multinational corporations have laid off or announced layoffs over 60,000 workers this month. Read More
SIRIUS Financial Take: Howard Stern/Pandora Risks (SIRI, AAPL)
SIRIUS XM Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) has been a key trading focus of late, mostly with positive metrics. The company has now posted positive cash flow for the entire year of 2009 and it showed stronger subscriber growth in over a year. There are a couple of risks not just tied to the economy, although any company selling paid-subscriber media today would tell you that the biggest risk to their business model is if the economy tumbles anywhere close to where we were in early 2009. The specific risks to consider for SIRIUS XM are Howard Stern first as a risk for 2011 and beyond, and new competition from Pandora starting this year.
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Jobless Claims Turn Back Wrong Way
The weekly jobless claims are are fresh out from the Labor Department. All the gains we started to see and the progress made late in 2009 are going the wrong way now. We show a gain of 36,000 to 482,000. One problem also is that the estimates were to be around 440,000. This was also the first gain in the four week average so far this year with a gain of 7,000 to 448,250. The army of the unemployed fell by 18,000 on an adjusted basis to 4,599,000 from last week’s revised level of 4,617,000.
The continuing claims are lower by enough that all we can point to is how many in the last official unemployment report have just entirely ‘opted out of the labor force’…. opted out, whatever that means. There is no way to spin this new weekly data in a positive manner. This is headed back the wrong way.
JON C.OGG
Jobless Data Heads Wrong Direction
The Labor Department has released its weekly jobless claims data. The figure came in as a gain of 11,000 in the jobless line at 444,000. We had a consensus expected from Bloomberg as being 437,000. The claims figure from the prior week was revised down to 433,000 from 434,000.
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Out For Smokes or Alien Abductions… The Shrinking Labor Force
The Great Recession has taken its toll on America. The New-Normal in U.S. economic data and jobs is starting to look like more like Europe every day, except that none of us get five-weeks off or have guarantees of real retirement income or anything resembling assured healthcare even after the new legislation passes this year. Friday’s jobs data with a 10% unemployment rate and a non-Farm Payrolls figure coming in at -85,000 rather than flat or even a slight gain omits the worst part of the fallacy of real economic recovery down at the worker-on-the-street level. Sure, things are getting better or at least getting less and less bad, on almost all fronts. The numbers say so and it is impossible to deny that we are now in a much different situation than we were in just ten to fourteen months ago. But there is a real undercurrent that is hard to ignore, and that is that the workforce is shrinking at a rate that you have to scratch your head over how strong the recovery is.
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Non-Farm Payrolls Doesn’t Make The Grade
The Labor Department has just released what is so far the most important jobs data in 2010. The December unemployment rate came out at 10.0% and the change in non-Farm payrolls was -85,000. Bloomberg had a consensus reading of 10.1% for December versus 10.% initially reported for November. It also had a consensus of 10,000 jobs created according to the change in non-Farm payrolls in December versus a figure of -11,000 initially reported for November.
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Jobless Claims Lack Catalyst for Friday’s Unemployment Data
The Labor Department posted the weekly jobless claims data this morning. The figure came to a gain of 1,000 on an adjusted basis to 433,000. Bloomberg had the consensus estimate at 450,000, although that may have come down on the previews of the other jobs data that had come out throughout this week.
The four-week average posted an eighteen-week run downward by a drop of 10,250 to 450,250. The big figure was in the army of unemployed measured by the continuing jobless claims, which fell by 179,000 to 4,802,000.
Today’s data is still headed in teh right direction, but the problem is that these figures are not deemed anywhere near enough to considerably move the needle in unemployment nor in jobs growth. All eyes will probably look a bit past today and look to unemployment and the change in in non-farm payrolls due Friday.
JON C. OGG
Job Satisfaction May Not Matter
The press made a great deal of a report that job satisfaction hit in 2009 what is an all-time low in a 22-year-old survey conducted by The Conference Board. The new research shows that only 45% of people polled are happy with their work. Lack of wage increases and higher health insurance cost were among the reasons that the association gave for the drop in “happiness” Read More
Job Cuts Outstrip Berkshire Hathaway Shares (BRK-A, BNI)
There was an interesting filing out during the Christmas holiday showing that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) weren’t in the holiday spirit for much of 2008. There were 21,000 fewer employees at Berkshire Hathaway entities in 2009 compared to 2008’s 246,000 employees.
Bloomberg called this “a slump at its manufacturing and retail units.” The new tally of about 225,000 workers according to documents pertaining to the planned acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: NBI).
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Fewer Firings at Jobs Before Christmas
It seems that employers refrained from as many firings the week before Christmas this year. The data from the Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims fell by 28,000 to 452,000 in the week ended December 19. This was the lowest reading in more than a year.
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Jobless Back in Wrong Direction
The Labor Department is out with its weekly jobless claims data and again we have a reading south of 500,000. The claims rose 17,000 to 474,000 versus a Bloomberg target of 460,000. That reverses some of the improvements of the last two weeks even if it is under the 500,000 mark.
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Unemployment’s Surprising Drop
The Labor Department is out with its November unemployment rate and the change in non-Farm payrolls. The official unemployment rate in November went down to 10.0% from 10.2% in October. That is of course the official rate, as the unofficial rate is tallied much higher and most agree on somewhere around 17%. The change in non-Farm payrolls for November came in at a much ‘less-bad’ rate of -11,000 jobs.
Bloomberg had estimates at 10.2% for the unofficial unemployment rate and -100,000 on non-Farm Payrolls on the jobs front. We saw a Dow Jones consensus yesterday of 10.2% and -125,000, so you at least have a range. The question now is whether you believe the data or not.
Did Obama Warn on Friday’s Unemployment Data?
There have been at least two occasions where President Obama referred to the direction of the unemployment and non-farm payrolls data before the key report due Friday. Once was just a month ago, but it seems that the third telegraph was just made today.
A personal perspective here today is that President Obama was still more cautious and in evaluating his comments today. For a reading on tomorrow’s unemployment it seems a negative bias with a probably higher official unemployment rate. That being said and making odds, it seems that Obama’s tone and speech was leaning toward the data continuing to get worse from what we saw a month ago on the official unemployment rate. As far as on the non-Farm Payrolls data, that would be a total wild card.
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Wasting Time At The Jobs Summit
The ADP private sector jobs report says that 169,000 people became unemployed in November. This means that the government figures on unemployment for last month will likely indicate that the jobless population went up by 200,000 or more. Experts give a large range of figures, but at least seven million people are out of work since the beginning of the recession which started at the close of 2007. Several Fed governors and a number of private economists believe that unemployment will remain above 10% for most of next year. The problem is even worse since hundreds of thousands of people are losing their last means of support, which are their public unemployment benefits. Read More
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