Let’s just call it a seller’s strike.  You can’t find anyone selling Apple.  In the ten trading sessions since earnings, the days with gains have been on seven of the ten days but the days with losses have been only negligible.

Apple jumped to $446.66 after earnings, up from $420.41 at the close on the day of its earnings.  Now shares have closed up 1% at $468.83 for a new all-time high closing price and Apple’s market cap is now at a staggering $437 billion.

And to think… Apple is trading at only 11-times the implied 2012 earnings estimates.  By now it has more than $100 billion in cash on the books.  One day this run will end, but who knows when…  James Altucher gave a $1,000 Apple call last night on CNBC.  The consensus target is now $562.96 and some analysts see $650 as a target.

This stock is now much larger than Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and about its only care about Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is now just remembering that there is supposed to be a rivalry.

JON C. OGG

In 2010, the methodology called for a target of 11,455 and the DJIA closed out at 11,577.51 for the year. In 2011, the methodology called for a blended peak consensus of 13,042.06. While the DJIA closed 2011 up 5.5% at 12,217.56 for the year, the peak 2011 DJIA price was 12,928.50. Using stock market projections often feels like a game of horseshoes, or a bit like throwing hand grenades, because being close enough is generally all that matters. The blended DJIA price target peak for 2012, using the 24/7 Wall St. methodology is 13,678, or a gain of 11.96%.

Amazingly enough, this year’s projected figure may actually be understated because this removes the wild card performances of Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). Bank analysts have price targets that are still much higher than current prices and these have a low weighting in the actual share price weighting of the DJIA methodology. For that reason, the 13,678 is based upon 28 components. If we included the target using our methodology with just J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) shares, we would get an expected gain of 12.9% to 13,793; but if we also include the large upside targets to Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), then the DJIA target would be 14,035 for a gain of 14.88%.

There are caveats that have to be considered, particularly for a projected gain of almost 12% in 2012. The first is that analysts as a group are often too bullish, and the second is that this is intended to represent a peak level of 2012 rather than a year-end call. Only one of the 30 DJIA components, Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ), is trading above its consensus price target from Thomson Reuters due to fresh highs in the stock. Many DJIA stocks closed well under their 52-week highs, but most consensus price targets on the 30 DJIA components would actually hit new 52-week highs in 2012 if the analysts are correct. A solid fourth quarter for U.S. stocks is part of why the analysts are still excited on individual stocks in 2012.

2011 was a very volatile year. The United States lost its prized Triple-A rating by S&P, emerging markets cooled off, the European Union went into meltdown mode, and all the while the big American companies managed to grow earnings, buy back stock at a feverish pace and even managed to grow their dividends. The last quarter for the DJIA was actually up about 12% versus 5.5% for the year. The broader market of the S&P 500 was up 11% in the fourth quarter but managed to close out the year literally 0.04 points lower than a year earlier.

The best of the 30 DJIA stocks was McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) with a gain of about 31%. It rose so much that analysts now only see about 3% upside, based on year-end price target objectives. The three highest price components helped the DJIA gain as follows: International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) rose about 27%, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) rose almost 20%, and McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) rose over 30%. Warren Buffett even bought about $10 billion worth of IBM shares.

There were also many big losers out of the 30 DJIA components. A 58% drop in Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) shares made it the worst performer of the 30 DJIA stocks. Other big losers were Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) at -43%, Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) at -38%, and even J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was dragged lower by almost 20% as the bank stocks slid. A couple of key components were barely changed. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) managed a small gain of almost 1.4% and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) closed down 1.5%.

The DJIA projection methodology has come within about 1% in each of the past two years. Does it seem too good to be true for 2012? With how sensitive the economy is today, it feels like it may be too good to be true. 2011 was so volatile and the DJIA performance of 5.5% compared to basically a total wash on the S&P 500 performance. Is it fair to question a methodology that worked for the past two years? If the DJIA hits 13,678 in 2012, that would compare to a high of 12,928.50 over the past year.

There are at least some things that could drive such a bullish projection. 2012 is an election year and that has often helped stocks. Will the gridlock of today interrupt 2012? The recession is now two and a half years in the rear-view mirror. The problems at the end of 2011 are likely to act as continued headwinds in 2012. Europe is still on the border of crisis. China is not posting the blazing growth needed to drive mature economies. Many segments of the manufacturing sector have excess capacity and moderate demand. Still, traditional valuations of stocks today are very low by historic standards. Companies are still raising dividends and still repurchasing stocks.

The Dogs of the Dow have a yield of roughly 4% for 2012. The 10-Year Treasury yield closed out 2011 at only 1.87% and the 30-Year Treasury Bond closed out 2011 with a yield of only 2.89%. After a rough glance, it looks like 24 of the 30 DJIA stocks have a higher yield than the 10-Year Treasury Note, and 13 of 30 even outyield the 30-Year Treasury Bond. This sets up a scenario where income-oriented and yield-hungry investors may use the DJIA and other established dividend players as competition for income rather than buying Treasuries.

Will Ben Bernanke’s promise to keep interest rates exceptionally low through mid-2013 hold true? Even if it does hold true, by the end of 2012 that promise will have only six months or so left to it. Are not markets supposed to be price exploration mechanisms for the months and year ahead?

Of the other 30 DJIA stocks, there are some good things to look forward to and some headwinds at the same time. Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is trying to turn itself around. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) recently gave a big revenue warning, and that may hold back more interest in Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT). Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) both made good gains in 2011 despite a patent expiration cliff and less-than-exciting drug pipelines. And Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is entering 2012 after a near 14% gain and is acting like it wants to surge to new multiyear highs.

If the implied gains of almost 12% do somehow manage to come true in 2012, the implied peak target on the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) would be roughly $136.47, if the performance of the ETF matches the index performance tick for tick.

We have tracked only the large buyback announcements made this month in the following companies: The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL); American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG); CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS); Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (NYSE: FIS); Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE); Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI); Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX); Sysco Corporation (NYSE: SYY); Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (NYSE: TMO); Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA-B); and Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (NYSE: VRX).

As far as how share buybacks in general matter for stocks, you can always play the buyback leaders via the PowerShares Buyback Achievers (NYSE: PKW), and it is almost exactly in the middle of its 52-week trading range.  Those buybacks outlined below do not include the many $150 million, $100 million, and lower buybacks.  The tally all said and done here so far in just the first half of November of 2011: over $27 billion!!!

The Allstate Corporation (NYSE: ALL) is trying to tell shareholders they are in good hands because the announcement over the next 18 months is that it would repurchase up to $1 billion in common stock.  The market cap today is just over $13 billion.

How can American International Group, Inc. (NYSE: AIG) have a share buyback program?  It announced in early November that it would buy back up to $1 billion in stock.  The $43 billion in market cap is one thing, but the amount of shares still owned by Uncle Sam (or taxpayers) is huge.  Actually, maybe this supports the stock value for us all!

CBS Corporation (NYSE: CBS) added to its prior plan and has authorized the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion in stock.  The current market cap is $16.5 billion, so we’ll leave it up to you to decide if this buyout matters or not.

Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (NYSE: FIS) announced on November 1 that it was approving for up to $500 million in share buybacks over the next two years.  This compares to $7.4 billion in market capitalization.

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) recently expanded its buyback program and it is now authorized to repurchase up to $7 billion worth of common stock.  This is a huge amount but it sounds small when you consider a $151 billion market cap.

Reynolds American Inc. (NYSE: RAI) this week announced a $2.5 billion share buyback plan which is good for the next two and a half years.  This is more than 10% of the company’s stock as the market cap is $23 billion.  Institutions own 46% of Reynolds.

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) recently added to its prior buyback plan with up to 20 million shares. This is more than $850 million at current prices, which compares to a market cap of $32.5 billion.

Sysco Corporation (NYSE: SYY) recently boosted its dividend but it also announced that it would repurchase up to 20 million shares of common stock.  This represents about $550 million today and its market cap is just over $16 billion.

Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (NYSE: TMO) recently added $750 million to its prior buyback plan and its market capitalization is $18.5 billion.  The company had only $25 million remaining under a prior buyback and the new buyback is over the course of a year because it expires on November 9, 2012.

Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA-B) must want to try to take itself private.  The market cap is just under $25 billion, but the company recently announced with its positive earnings report that it is expanding its buyback to $10 billion.  While this was an expansion of a prior plan, $10 billion is a massive sum.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. (NYSE: VRX) is a bit odd.  While it announced that it would spend up to $1.5 billion repurchasing securities, this was listed as a buyback of stock and/or debt.  Its market cap is $13.25 billion today.

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JON C. OGG

If you add up the past 12 SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) dividend payments, the DJIA yield has been almost 2.5% over the last year. The good news is that the yield is already higher if you include the hikes that are likely to be announced. The price of the DJIA today should offer what will be closer to a 3% dividend yield in 2012.

The list of the 30 DJIA components is very long, but we have reviewed each and all of the following: Alcoa (NYSE: AA), American Express (NYSE: AXP), AT&T (NYSE: T), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Boeing (NYSE: BA), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), DuPont (NYSE: DD), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), General Electric (NYSE: GE), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), 3M (NYSE: MMM), Merck & Company (NYSE: MRK), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Travelers Companies (NYSE: TRV), United Technologies (NYSE: UTX), Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), Walmart Stores (NYSE: WMT) and finally Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS).

We have broken out each DJIA component to review the history and expected dividend action individually. While this is a no short read, dividend and income investors better pay close attention here. Value investors should pay attention as well. It is these DJIA components that are often considered as the prize of the sector and many peers are facing the same trends today and tomorrow. Our review focuses on when the last hikes have been seen, when the next dividend hike will come, and what the price and implied upside to the Thomson Reuters consensus price target offers. We also even have shown an expected income payout ratio on each if applicable to further show which companies can boost their payouts ahead.

Alcoa is still hanging its hat on the notion that the aluminum market will double by 2020, so we have to at some point expect the DJIA component to boost its dividends again in the years ahead. Still, the company is trying to accumulate more liquidity and the current climate is a choppy one for metals players. The dividend has been stuck at $0.03 since the first of 2009 and it was $0.17 per quarter before then. Any hikes might only be nominal until the business climate becomes a bit more steady and predictable. The 1.1% is very unimpressive for a DJIA component and we have no great dividend ambitions in the near-term for Alcoa, even if only 10% to 15% of expected 2012 income is slated for payouts. At $10.35, the consensus price target of about $13.25 is well under the 52-week high of $18.47.

American Express has had its dividend steady at $0.18 per quarter since its January 2008 payment and the current yield is only 1.4%. The company’s credit metrics keep improving and its payout is not quite 19% of expected earnings next year. Still, this is a financial stock and it is hard to a financial stock to boost dividends right now. It has no branch bank operations but the climate remains tenuous. At $49.70, the consensus price target is around $55.75 if you trust price targets on financial firms.

AT&T has had four quarters in a row of $0.43 and it has a history of raising its dividend each year. The question that hangs over it is the regulatory block over the T-Mobile buyout and the huge penalty that AT&T will ultimately have to pay out of it cannot clear regulatory hurdles. This is one of the dividend stars with a 5.8% yield but it also pays out more than 70% of its expected income. Another hike is possible, but our take is that the dividend yields are now so high that telecom giants will only ratchet them up slightly. At $29.20, the consensus price target is $31.90.

Some of these stocks are in technology, some are not.  Our criteria is to eliminate junk: no companies losing money, no declining earnings, no fresh implosions, no Chinese ADRs, no stuck multi-year turnarounds, and no restructurings that are changing the identity of a company. We also wanted to find companies where analysts still believe that earnings in 2012 will be higher than in 2011, and we eliminated companies in the troubled banking, housing, and auto sectors.  We screened out the volatile commodity stocks, used a multi-billion market cap floor, demanded many years of operating history, and even made sure that each stock had 10 or more analysts covering the stock to make sure that consensus was truly a consensus rather than a straw-poll.

The screened stocks expected to outperform Apple are as follows: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT); EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD); EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC); FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX); General Electric Company (NYSE: GE); Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG); Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR); QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM); SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK); Staples, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS); Urban Outfitters Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN); and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS).  A few names with more upside that might immediately come to mind are Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN), or First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR).  Unfortunately, these stocks, even if they do technically have higher implied upside according to analysts, are all under death watch due to a share price implosion.  The consensus targets and any earnings estimates are from Thomson Reuters and Yahoo! Finance.

The most attractive stock investments for periods when GDP growth stalls are those of corporations that proved they could improve sales during the 2007-2009 recession. Many of these corporations have additional attractions. They often generate so much cash they can afford to pay large dividends. This gives investors yields when the value of many equities fall due to concerns about the economy and in a period that interest rates on bonds are near all-time lows.

Recession-resistant companies are also often part of recession-resistant industries. Many of these industries’ sales come from a number of countries around the world. Their sales may slow in the U.S. and Europe, but remain strong in emerging nations. Coke and P&G are examples of corporations in such industries. Other companies are in sectors whose products are used in almost any economic environment. Tobacco companies like Altria and Reynolds American are examples of these. Still other industries have companies that have appeal in an economic downturn. McDonald’s, which offers many meals for a few dollars, often prospers when people cannot afford fresh groceries or more expensive restaurants.

24/7 Wall St. picked its recession proof companies by choosing: 1) corporations with revenue that grew during the last recession or where sales dropped slightly and profits rose, 2) companies in industries that are not usually sensitive to changes in the economy, 3) corporation that have demonstrated they have the balance sheet to pay large cash dividends, 4) corporations that are large enough to be among the most dominant companies by sales or market share within their sectors, and 5) stocks that trade within 10% of their 52-week highs. With the S&P 500 near a one year low, these are obviously companies that Wall St. thinks will do well over the next several quarters.

This is the 24/7 Wall St. “America’s Recession-Proof Companies”

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) has lowered the global growth targets now for 2012 from 4.2% growth down to 3.5% growth. As far as the United States, Goldman Sachs sees 1.7% growth in 2011 and now sees 1.4% growth for 2012.  The S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) closed just shy of 1,100 on Monday and the new target for the S&P has been taken down to 1,200 from 1,250… Where this 9% rally will come from is anyone’s guess.  The earnings target has been trimmed as well to $98 EPS from $102 EPS for 2012 as well, implying that the S&P trades at 11.2-times 2012 estimates.

The firm sees a mild recession taking place as 2011 turns into 2012 and France and Germany are expected to be in the red zone as well. European growth was cut by 0.1% to 1.6% for 2011.  This trend should also bring on interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank as well as some other easing measures in local economies in Europe.

Leading commodity targets were cut as well.  The Brent Sea Crude target for 2012 has been cut to $120 from $130 and WTI has been cut to $109 from above $120. Copper targets were cut to $9,200 from almost $10,800 per tonne.

This comes ahead of Ben Bernanke’s testimony.  Do not be surprised when Mr. Bernanke joins in with the other Fed governors lowering some growth targets even from the most recent FOMC meeting when they threw some $400 billion into ‘operation twist’ in September.

Here was our own chart repoting and analysis for the death of risk in emerging markets.  It is brutal.

JON C. OGG

The survey shows that 79% of investment managers surveyed in the latest quarterly survey say that they do not believe the U.S. economy is entering a double-dip recession.  We would note that there are two issues to consider here.  First is that this survey took place between August 23 and September 2.  Second is that the survey is based upon 102 fund managers, which some could easily argue is not exactly a broad consensus.

This comes at a time when even surveys differ from each other.  The CEO Roundtable has now turned for the worse.  We are also getting an equally mixed picture between the leading companies that measure international trade as well.

Of the 79% who believe we are not headed for another recession, some 78% of this subgroup cited strong corporate balance sheets and high corporate profit levels.  Of the subgroup, some 49% also pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates low until mid-2013. Additional indicators cited were declining oil prices and U.S. dollar weakness.

Despite the group not believing a recession is coming, 62% do expect growth to remain low for the next several years.

Of the recession camp, those managers who believe the U.S. economy is entering a recession is 11% and the other 10% said that we are already in a double-dip recession.  Of the recession group, employment recovery was cited by 95% as the recession exit strategy.

Russell’s observation indicates that the bulk of managers see a buying opportunity in the equity markets.  Some 57% believe that the stock market is currently undervalued even in the full group surveyed.  That is double the amount that said that in June.  Another interesting point is that only 10% of all those surveyed believe that the market is overvalued.  Some 32% believe the market is fairly valued, and that was 61% back in June.

• Bullish sentiment for U.S. large cap growth stocks increased 13 percentage points from the June survey to 73%.
• Bullishness for U.S. large cap value stocks hit an all-time survey high at 63% after a 14 point jump from June.
• Bullishness for emerging market equities hit an all-time survey high at 74%, up 15 points from June.

Russell noted that a resolution of the European debt issue is now the dominant issue and greatest threat to systematic stability. Russell used opinions of U.S. senior-level investment decision makers at both equity investment management firms and at fixed-income investment management firms.

JON C. OGG

August was very painful, even if the markets recovered from the lows. The DJIA was down about 4.5% and the S&P 500 fell by almost 5.7%; the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell by 6.4%.  The Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that September is more often than not a jinxed month for stocks as traditionally the worst month on the calendar for stocks.

On average since 1950, there is a 0.9% drop in the DJIA.  The worst September was in the weak economy of 2002, when the DJIA fell almost 12.5%.  The U.S. was about to attack Iraq and was still recovering from the economic turmoil after the terror attacks of the prior year.  Oil had gone from under $20 a barrel to nearly $30 and gold had moved up from $280 per ounce to $320 per ounce.  The good news, if there is good news… Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that pre-election Septembers are down “only” 0.6%.

The best September for the DJIA is said to be back in 1954, but the September weakness barometer was way off last year in 2010 and it was also off in 2009.  Isn’t it October that investors worry about the big market crashes?

However, in pre-election years, such as this one, the Dow industrial average is down only 0.6 percent in the average September.  So, what is in store for 2011′s September?  The DJIA closed August out at 11,613.53 and the DJIA was under 11,250 on Friday morning after the dismal employment data was released.  Does that mean that the bad news is already priced in or does that mean that the pain is only just beginning?

So, what is store for DJIA stocks?  Here is a quick hit on some of the key pivots for the DJIA (NYSE: DIA) today looking into the rest of September.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) just boosted its dividend this week, a commitment that earnings should remain steady and high for years and years.  While the market has grown to expect dividend hikes, we were not as certain that a dividend hike would come.   This now puts pressure for AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) to also hike its dividend later this year even if it does face a multi-billion break-up fee if that DOJ-blocked acquisition of T-Mobile stays a blocked deal.

No money was injured while filming

If you have been a reader of 24/7 Wall St. for long, you know that we appreciate companies that pay dividends just about as much the investors who buy companies because of their great dividends.  With all of the uncertainty in today’s markets and in today’s economy, having a solid dividend policy may be the key to keeping nervous investors from fleeing and going into cash or other assets that actually pay no income at all.  Some of the greatest companies of today and yesteryear actually refuse to pay dividends to shareholders.  For some companies, they can get away without paying a cent to owners because the value and growth is so strong.  There is another list of “Dividend Sinners” which should be paying a dividend to holders and have just decided to control that cash in-house instead.

We have identified more than twenty Dividend Sinners. Our review focuses on Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), Cincinnati Bell Inc. (NYSE: CBB), Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL), Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG ), Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY), Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC), Express Scripts, Inc. (NASDAQ: ESRX), Flextronics International Ltd. (NASDAQ: FLEX), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Jack In The Box Inc. (NASDAQ: JACK), Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NASDAQ: NDAQ), Symantec Corporation (NASDAQ: SYMC), United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL), Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ: URBN), Western Digital Corporation (NYSE: WDC), Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO), and Zebra Technologies Corporation (NASDAQ: ZBRA).

You can see that many of these are not technology giants.  Many are.  The aim is to handicap which companies still can get away without paying out income to their shareholders versus those which can and should.  Some of the more obvious Dividend Sinners are the same as you have seen criticized before, but many of these are overlooked by the media and by investors alike.  In some cases the lack of dividend payments is just ludicrous.  Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) waited far too long to adopt a dividend policy and look what happened to its shares after inaction.  Kohl’s Corporation (NYSE: KSS) took until this year before finally declaring a dividend while its direct competitors have paid dividends for years.

Again, some companies can get away without paying holders a penny.  Our aim was to identify the highly able companies and those which lag peers enough that the dividend trend just needs to be considered by management of these companies. We looked at forward P/E ratios based upon next year’s estimates from Thomson Reuters, the return on equity (ROE) from Finviz.com, the current share price and a 52-week trading range, along with the market cap of each company.  If applicable, we handicapped competitor and peer dividends and even noted how high of a dividend these companies could pay out.

Activist investors could have a field-day with at least a few of these dividend sinners…

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is the online retail king.  It has a forward price earnings multiple of 56 and a return on equity (ROE) of 16.3%.  Its market cap is $100 billion. The recent share price was $222 and the 52-week trading range is $114.51 to $227.20.  While much of the tone of this article might seem to be geared around a negative impact of a no-dividend policy, Amazon.com is actually in a different camp.  At 58-times 2012 projected earnings, the question to ask is “how high of a dividend could it pay anyway?”… Wall Street has even been able to absorb habitually lower and lower margins as it ramps up its capital spending.  With shares having now hit the $100 billion market cap and having hit fresh all-time highs, is there are reason to criticize the company right now?  We predicted that it would be on of the next mega-cap stocks for a reason.

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is due with earnings shortly and its path has been a boring one for long enough.  The largest independent biotech outfit has a forward price earnings multiple of 9.7 and a return on equity (ROE) of 19.4%.  Its market cap is $51 billion.  The recent share price was $54.00 and the 52-week trading range is $50.26 to $61.53.  Investors hope and pray that Amgen will be the first of the big biotechs to finally declare a dividend.  The call has been a longstanding call and the company has more than enough ample cash and patent protection to justify a healthy payout.  With about $15 billion in liquidity and $10 billion in long-term debt, investors should ask the company to stop wasting the cash by repurchasing shares in the open market.  It hasn’t worked as is the case with most share buyback plans.  If it is not going to have a dividend, maybe it should consider growing into new arenas with a substantial acquisition.  Our take is that Amgen is going to have to do something at some point soon and a dividend will do far better than a stock buyback plan.