Posts related to ‘Metals’

Paulson Making Gold Rush Self-Fulfilling Prophecy (GLD, KGC, AU)

A broker noted something about this yesterday as a gold bug, and frankly it seemed far-fetched considering the size of the move we have already seen in recent weeks and months.  But the talk was about John Paulson, the great bank and financial short seller who cleaned up betting against housing and financials, opening a gold fund.  We noticed he held some miners, but after the chase up in gold bullion prices this seemed and still seems late to the party even if there is room to run.  Today’s report from the Wall Street Journal shows that this may be more of a reality than a hope.

Paulson already has large stakes in key gold exposure with SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE: KGC), and Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU).  The tally on these three positions alone at today’s closing bell was about $5.5 billion if the stakes have remained the same.  His stakes already listed are as follows:

Posted on: November 18, 2009 – 5:23 pm in ADR, Activist Investor, Commodities, Metals, Rumors

Steel IPO Filing: Hirschfeld Industries, Inc. (HSFD)

Hirschfeld Industries, Inc. filed after the close on Monday to come public via an initial public offering of up to $150,000,000 in equity being sold via the New York Stock Exchange under the stock ticker “HSFD.”  No terms and conditions were set, so that $150 million should be considered as “for filing purposes only.”  Stock will be sold both by the company and by shareholders, and proceeds to the company are earmarked for debt repayment and for general corporate purposes.
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Posted on: November 17, 2009 – 11:46 am in IPOs, Infrastructure, Metals,

Russian ADRs Take Off (MTL)(LUKOY)

Tickerspy’s Russian Stock and ADR Index is up close to 5% as the market goes into its close.  Among the biggest movers was LUKOIL (OTC: LUKOY), an oil and gas company that was up over 6.5% today.  Mechel OAO (NYSE: MTL), a mining company, was also up over 6.5%.

Russian oil and mining stocks were up today largely due to the effects of this weekend’s G-20 meetings, where world leaders agreed to continue their fiscal and monetary stimulus until global economic recovery.  This news gave investors confidence that there will be demand for industrial commodities in the coming quarters.  This has had the effect of pushing up the value of Russia’s ruble again the dollar, along with Russia MICEX index, as oil and metals mining represent a significant portion of that country’s economy.  

Garrett W. McIntyre

Posted on: November 9, 2009 – 3:25 pm in ETF, Emerging Markets, International Markets, Metals, , , , , , , , , ,

Yet Higher Gold Prices Cometh (GLD, GDX, ABX, GG)

Gold ImageYesterday’s surprise move from India that sent gold through the roof to almost $1,085.00 per ounce was a game changing event in gold.  Many technical analysts and chartists were looking for, or at least hoping for, a further consolidation in the price of the shiny yellow stuff.  Yet now that appears to not be the case.  This has broad ramifications for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX); and it also of course will help push top-line and bottom line improvements to the likes of two of the huge players of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) and for Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG).  This morning we received an audio-visual slide show technical analysis presentation from one of our affiliates INO.  This was by Adam Hewison, who we have noted was making a big gold call for a move to $1,100 and then $1,200 or even higher back when gold prices were consolidating and well under the $1,000 mark.
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Posted on: November 4, 2009 – 11:09 am in Charts, Commodities, ETF, Emerging Markets, Metals, Technical Analysis, , , ,

Quasi-IPO FILING: Golden Minerals Company (GDMN)

Gold ImageAn initial public offering filing has been made by a company called Golden Minerals Company, although we would rate this as a quasi-IPO that looks more like a secondary offering and not a full blown IPO.  This trades under the ticker of “GDMN” on the Pink Sheets and trades under the ticker “AUM” on the Toronto Stock Exchange.  It plans to trade on the NYSE AMEX.  No financial terms were given other than a proposed maximum offering of $115,000,000.00 and Dahlman Rose & Company, LLC will serve as the sole book-running manager.
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Posted on: October 15, 2009 – 10:24 am in Commodities, IPOs, Metals, OTC, Secondary Offering,

24/7 Wall St. TV: Not All’s Well At Alcoa (NYSE:AA)

24/7 WallSt TVAluminum giant and Dow Jones Industrial Average component Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) has just kicked off earnings season for the Q3-2009 period.  Shares were halted ahead of the earnings report.  The company posted a surprise positive earnings of $0.04 EPS outside of items (and listed as $0.07 EPS from operations) and $4.6 billion in revenue.  Thomson Reuters was expecting a drop of 125% on earnings to -$0.09 EPS and $4.55 billion in revenue.   Revenues are down from $7 billion a year ago, but this is a sequential gain from $4.2 billion seen in Q2-2009.

The company seems to have been in a restructuring and repositioning for an eternity, and the company has further updated its progress on this front.  The company said that financial and operational measures taken in the first half of the 2009 are having a strong positive impact on cash and profitability, and further noted that it is in excellent shape to benefit when the market recovers.  Further noted was that the company is surpassing all targets in the cash sustainability program. Read More »

Posted on: October 8, 2009 – 8:30 am in Earnings, Metals, TV,

ALCOA Brings In Surprise Profit (AA)

Alcoa ImageAluminum giant and Dow Jones Industrial Average component Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) has just kicked off earnings season for the Q3-2009 period.  Shares were halted ahead of the earnings report.  The company posted a surprise positive earnings of $0.04 EPS outside of items (and listed as $0.07 EPS from operations) and $4.6 billion in revenue.  Thomson Reuters was expecting a drop of 125% on earnings to -$0.09 EPS and $4.55 billion in revenue.   Revenues are down from $7 billion a year ago, but this is a sequential gain from $4.2 billion seen in Q2-2009.

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Posted on: October 7, 2009 – 4:08 pm in Earnings, Metals,

A Few Lagging Gold Names (GDX, NXG, EGI, GRZ)

Gold ImageWith gold totally breaking out of the old power-band, it is interesting that a few players are still lagging the pack.  Many of these stocks are up 7% and closer to 10% now that many feel the $1,000.00 mark may become the new floor for gold.  To show how strong the group is with gold over $1,040.00, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) is up over 6% at $47.20.  We’d also make note that these are small AMEX shares and most have dual listings elsewhere.  We of course screened out all OTC and Pink Sheet stocks in this search today.
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Posted on: October 6, 2009 – 1:09 pm in Commodities, Metals, , , ,

Record Gold Prices Spark ETF/ETN (GLD, SLV)

Gold ImageGold has just hit a new contract high of $1,035.00 on a nominal basis.  While this is far short of an inflation-adjusted price compared to the 1980’s highs, this is still a nominal high.  The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) are up 1.7% at $101.55 this morning, which is above that old $108.08 high.  We have been noting an affiliate of ours who has been calling emphatically for higher gold prices.  Yesterday,  in a call that was against the US Dollar and against the S&P 500 Index, the call for gold was for a move above the old power band and a surge to $1,200.00 or possibly even higher.  Gold’s gains are taking silver and copper higher as well.  We have the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) up 3.2% at $16.91 in pre-market trading, although its recent high is $17.26.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 6, 2009

Posted on: October 6, 2009 – 9:16 am in Charts, Commodities, ETF, Metals, ,

Technical Analysis Predictions For Q4 (SPY, UUP, UDN, GLD, TLT, TBT)

bull-and-bear-image2Maybe it is time after a 50%+ gain in the major equity indexes, or maybe it is just everyone getting into the October bearish mode.  We are hearing more and more calls for a very weak equities market ahead.  One of our affiliates just ran a detailed audio/video presentation showing what the charts are expecting for Q4-2009 in the S&P 500, the US Dollar Index, Gold, and even bond yields.  Unfortunately this is a bad prediction for stocks and can be tracked directly by the SPDR (NYSE: SPY), or Spyders.  This prediction also has some gloom forecast for the US Dollar Index, which can be tracked in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP) and in the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN). That is partly for the call for much higher Gold, which can be tracked most easily in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).  The prediction for bonds was not as finite, but at record lows we can’t really argue with the logic that yields can only go one way unless sideways is considered a directional change.
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Posted on: October 5, 2009 – 1:02 pm in Analyst Calls, Bonds, Charts, Commodities, ETF, Economy, Index, International Markets, Metals, Technology Companies, , , , , ,

The Improbable Success Of Cash4Gold

TVCash4Gold is a low-rent business that buys cheap TV time to promote its program for people to send it gold in exchange for cash. Turn that old jewelry into money.

It turns out that Cash4Gold is an outstanding business. According to TechCruch and The New York Post, the company made $30 million on $90 million in revenue and sales are on track to hit $160 million this year. Read More »

Posted on: October 5, 2009 – 6:15 am in Metals

Weak Economic News Sends Investors to Gold (ABX, KGC, GFI, GDX, GLD, RGLD)

camMonopoly_wideweb__430x325,0This morning’s reports on unemployment (up), manufacturing (down), housing (sort of up), and consumer spending (up a little) have pushed the market down. Out of the gate this morning, gold miners and spot gold prices followed the market down, but as trading has increased the spot gold price has recovered about half its early losses and the gold miners are coming back too. Read More »

Posted on: October 1, 2009 – 11:47 am in Metals, , , , , ,

Gold Miners Digging Out? (ABX, AU, NEM, GDX, GLD)

Now that Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX) has raised $4 billion or so to buy out its hedges, the company is set to enjoy an expected run-up in gold prices. In early trading today, Barrick shares were up about 1.5%, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU) shares were up slightly, and Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE:NEM) shares were up about 1%.

Share prices for these and other gold mining shares have been on the rise for the past few weeks. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) peaked at $48 a week ago, a new 52-week high. SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:GLD) also flirted with a new 52-week high today. Spot gold prices have been as high as $1,015/oz today, but are moving back down at just $1,001.79. Read More »

Posted on: September 24, 2009 – 11:13 am in Metals, , , , ,

Barrick Raising & Spending Billions To Drop Hedging (ABX)

Gold ImageBarrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) is going to be taking an action which has mixed implications for shares of Barrick versus the overall gold play now that the shiny yellow metal is hitting $1,000.00 an ounce.  The company has engaged a large syndicate of underwriters to raise billions in cash.  This is not to make an acquisition, but rather to remove gold hedging contracts.  With gold hitting $1,000.00 today, it seems that management does not want to leave major upside here in case the gold run-up is just starting.
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Posted on: September 8, 2009 – 5:29 pm in Accounting, Commodities, Metals, Secondary Offering, Shareholder Issues,

The Unusual Suspects (APP, BRK-A, CPB, MTXX, MCO, MHP, RMBS, QQQQ, GDL, UNH)

bull-and-bear-imageIt is the weekend, albeit a long three-day weekend for Labor Day.  Earnings season is done, gone, bye-bye, but this coming week there are going to be some key events and key stocks to watch including American Apparel Inc. (AMEX:APP), Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB), Matrixx Initiatives Inc. (NASDAQ: MTXX), Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO), McGraw-Hill (NYSE: MHP), Rambus, Inc. (NASDAQ: RMBS).  On bigger market pundit calls, we want to watch the key ETF and ETN products of PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ), the Semiconductor HOLDRS (NYSE: SMH), and Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), and the Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: UGL).  Elsewhere, there is the death of the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO).  Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD) will also be key to watch because of a response to a nasty Barron’s article.

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Posted on: September 5, 2009 – 8:31 am in Calendar, Charts, Commodities, Labor & Unions, Mergers and Buy Outs, Metals, Rumors, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , , ,

The $1,000 Gold Call Returns (GLD, GDX, UGL, ABX, HMY)

Gold ImageThe commodities call is back on.  It isn’t $100 oil, but it is for $1,000.00 gold.  We have two well respected market technicians calling for higher gold prices.  At 10:12 AM EST,  Spot Gold was trading at $982.34, a change of +$7.78 or +0.80%.  Simultaneously, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) was up 0.4% at $96.55.  The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), which is an ETF full of the top gold mining stocks, is up over 1.5% at $43.15 and has been all over the place this morning.  The Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: UGL), which tries to track twice the dollar performance of gold bullion, was up 0.75% at $36.95 on fairly thin volume.  Even Barrick Cold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), one of the largest miners and producers, was up 0.8% at $38.12 on active trading.  Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY) is also up about 2.6% at $10.27, and this is despite J.P. Morgan downgrading this stock this morning to Hold from Buy.

One of our affiliates, INO.com, has an audio/video presentation by Adam Hewison that shows data back to 2001 and using current data to discuss the possibilities of a break-out coming up in the price of spot gold.  This notes how yesterday was a large day and is back up to the resistance line.  He still thinks that the $1,000.00 per ounce mark continues to be the big hurdle but that is possible to see even before the end of the week.

We also saw how Dennis Gartman yesterday was on CNBC talking about gold rallying more in foreign currency markets than the U.S. and he noted how something was going on there… particularly as gold went up the same day the bond market went up.  It seems to Gartman that the vote is a bet on gold but one against the economy.  What is funny is that Gartman thinks that everyone should have exposure to gold, but 2% to 3% of their portfolio or 5% in extreme cases.

And there is more to this yet, particularly as you go into 2010…
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Posted on: September 3, 2009 – 10:31 am in Charts, Commodities, Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading Alert, , , , ,

ETFs/ETNs Becoming Hybrid Closed-End Funds (USO, UNG, DBO, DXO, GAZ, GSG, GS, MS, GLD, SLV, JJC, FAS, FAZ)

Two months ago it was a carnal sin to suggest that certain exchange-traded funds or notes which track commodities would start trading more like a closed-end fund based upon supply and demand moves in shares caused by in-flows and out-flows of orders rather than solely by the direction of the prices of underlying commodities.  It has been our ongoing prediction that many commodity ETF/ETN products (and maybe some leveraged products as well) will become more like closed-end funds. Yet here under new regulations that have not even become gospel, we have seen new share issuances either denied or withdrawn from some of these ETF or ETN products.  And we are getting to see a premium in pricing to boot.  The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (NYSE: UNG) is the most classic example out there.  This ETN was at a 15% to 16% premium to the actual gas futures as investors are choosing to pay higher prices just for the ability to get exposure in the portfolio in case these prices rise.  The UNG has already confirmed that no new shares would be issued currently, and it is now so large that it controls closed to 20% of the benchmark natural gas contracts.  Limitations of this sort will drive a free-market theorist nuts, but the other reality is that this can also create large directional price moves that have nothing at all to do with fundamentals.

It turns out that the PowerShares DB Oil Fund (NYSE: DBO) traded about 0.3% higher than its actual value in crude futures late last week, and limits to shares could exaggerate premiums and discounts.  And the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long Exchange-Trade Note (NYSE: DXO) has also suspended issuing new shares. Barclays has also said that it would, at least temporarily, suspend new shares from being issued in its natural gas ETN called the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Natural Gas Subindex Total Return Exchange-Traded Notes (NYSE: GAZ).

Barclays also said that it would stop issuing new shares of the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Index Trust (NYSE: GSG) once the outstanding amount reached 55.9 million shares. If our data is accurate on the latest count, that looks to stand at roughly 52 million shares.  This is a semi-diversified product that tracks about 24 different commodities in energy, agriculture, industrial metals, prcious metals and livestock.  It is energy dominant, but this was a much more diversified fund that decided to limit its size.  This one also has traded at a premium to its underlying value.
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Posted on: August 24, 2009 – 11:30 am in Commodities, ETF, Metals, Oil & Gas, Regulation, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Charts vs. Fundamentals: How High Can Gold Go? (GG, ZLC, GLD, GDX, ABX)

Gold ImageThis morning’s move in gold may have seemed like an anomaly as gold briefly traded up over $970.00 per ounce.  The shiny yellow stuff rose $2.28 at $964.78 as of 10:42 AM EST.    What is interesting is how the companies and instruments around the shiny metal have been trading and what they have been reporting.  Gold Fields (NYSE: GG), Zale Corp. (NYSE: ZLC), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), and Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) are all of focus and interest here.

One of our affiliates has run a chart based audio visual analysis with the expectation that next week will be a solid week in gold and a note that we could pass the $1,000.00 mark.
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Posted on: August 6, 2009 – 11:18 am in Charts, Commodities, ETF, Luxury, Metals, , , , ,

Two IPO’s Hit: Globe Specialty Metals & PennyMac (GSM,PMT)

money-stack-imageWe have two IPO’s today, which sort of got lost in the earnings season shuffle.  Despite the recent market strength and the performance of recent IPO’s, both of these have been disappointing.

Globe Specialty Metals (NYSE: GSM) priced 14 million shares at $7.00, at the low end of its $7.00 to $9.00 range.  We also have a 16 million share IPO of PennyMac Mortgage Investment (NYSE: PMT) at $20.00 per share, although this was cut from 20 million shares.
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Posted on: July 30, 2009 – 8:51 am in IPOs, Metals, REIT, ,

iShares Silver ETF Gets Another Competitor (SLV, SIVR, DBS, USV, AGQ, ZSL)

In the world of metals and commodity ETF products, the iShares Silver Trust (NYS: SLV) has been the go-to ETF for traders wanting exposure to the price of silver as it has an objective to reflect the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust after the fund’s expenses and liabilities.  There are other silver ETF products that traders and investors can use, but a new competing ETF has launched today.  The ETFS Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR) has now launched and has issued shares backed by physical silver SIVR for NYSE listing.
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Posted on: July 24, 2009 – 10:25 am in Commodities, ETF, Metals, , , , , ,