Posts related to ‘Options’

Unusual Friday Options Activity (AAPL, GOOG, BAC, LEAP, PCS, DRYS, YHOO)

We have seen some unusual options trading today.  As you would expect, some is around today’s 4:00 PM close  with today being options expiration date.  But some bets are way out into 2011 and we have some around merger rumors.  All have links with full details on the options trading analysis at VSInvestor:

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) are both seeing very active trading around expiration date today, and the closest strikes are acting as magnets.

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) has seen a very bullish bet in options out to 2011.

There is some elevated Dec-2009 Call options activity in both Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) and MetroPCS Communications Inc. (NYSE: PCS) on today’s re-rumor of a potential deal coming back up.

DryShips, Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS) is very active in the stock after an increased convertible note offering, yet the options activity seen today seems muted.

Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) has a big bet out in January 2011 options expiration.

You can join our open email distribution list to hear more news on key analyst calls, top day trader alerts, mergers and acquisitions, Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG
NOVEMBER 20, 2009

Posted on: November 20, 2009 – 3:24 pm in Options, Rumors, Trading Alert, , , , , , ,

Today’s Unusual Options Activity (ABX, CAT, EXPE, JAVA, CS)

These are today’s unusual options trading patterns seen late in the afternoon.  We have provided links over to VSInvestor.com for more details on each situation:

  • There have been two large options transactions in Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX).
  • Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) is seeing some longer-term bullish recovery bets that may have been profit taking on a prior trade.
  • Someone is making a big pre-earnings options trade in Expedia, Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE).
  • Traders are placing bets both for and against a Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) buyout by Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) now that there are 3,000 more layoffs after the company keeps losing more and more money while the kids running the European Commission figure out that a money-losing company should not require a deep review of this sort for anti-competition.
  • OptionsHawk.com notified us of nine-times options volume in Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS).

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 21, 2009

Posted on: October 21, 2009 – 3:06 pm in Options, Trading Alert, , , , ,

The VIX Becomes Worthless (VXX, VXZ)

The CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX, has become almost a useless barometer in the current environment.  With the VIX’s nickname being called “The Fear Index,” this is probably no huge surprise based on 50% and 60% index gains from the March 9 closing bell levels.  The VIX shows the expectation of volatility for the month ahead and is constructed using the implied volatility of a range of S&P 500 index options from both call and put contracts.
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Posted on: October 19, 2009 – 2:31 pm in ETF, Index, Options, ,

Unusual Options Trading Patterns (SUN, VLO, TSO, FTO, GE, GOOG, IBM, PFE, WYE)

We are starting to see some elevated options trading that appeared on the unusual volume screens.  Many of these are pre-earnings trading and some are on other expectations.  We have more detailed data on each over at VSinvestor.com with links on each stock individually:

OptionsHawk.com pointed out to us that there was a huge increase in refiners options trading in Sunoco Inc. (NYSE: SUN), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Frontier Oil Corp. (NYSE: FTO) and in Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO).

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) is starting to see some elevated options trading as well ahead of tomorrow’s earnings.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is seeing increased options trading ahead of earnings, which was actually more active on a fully leveraged basis than the stock was.

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) is seeing increased options trading ahead of earnings.

Pfzer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is seeing elevated stock trading on the Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) closing due to indexers like the S&P 500 and Russell adding shares, and we are seeing it in the call options as well.

As a reminder, OCT-2009 options expiration date is tomorrow, and all “out of the money” with an October expiration will expire with a value of ZERO.

You can join our open email distribution list to get updates on top day trader alerts, IPO’s, secondary offerings, daily analyst upgrades and downgrades, Warren Buffett and other guru activity, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
OCTOBER 15, 2009

Posted on: October 15, 2009 – 2:50 pm in Options, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , ,

The Unusual Suspects (AA, MOS, YUM, CVC, CIT, LOCM, RVSN, WFC)

bull-and-bear-image2It is the weekend and that means a review of last week’s unusual suspects and a review for key stocks in the week ahead.  Technically earnings season gets its first earnings report from a DJIA component in ACLOA Inc. (NYSE: AA) this week, as well as earnings from The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) and from Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM).  Other key stocks to watch will be Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC), CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) on the ropes, the real or unreal takeover chances for Local.com Corp. (NASDAQ: LOCM), and the unusual trading in Radvision Ltd. (NASDAQ: RVSN) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC).  We have provided more detailed information and analysis on each story below.
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Posted on: October 4, 2009 – 10:34 am in Agriculture, Banking, Buffett, Cable Companies, Calendar, Commodities, Dividend, Earnings, Editor's Picks, Food, Internet, Mergers and Buy Outs, Options, Private Equity, Rumors, The Week, Trading Alert, , , , , , , ,

FOMC Preview: The End of Free Money Coming Soon

bull-and-bear-image2The FOMC is expected to give us a decision on interest rates this Wednesday, September 23 around 2:15 PM EST.  One tool we prefer to use for determining the direction of Fed Funds is long standing 30-Day Fed Fund Futures contracts traded on the CME.  We are seeing a mix of several events culminating here over the question of whether the target Fed Funds should be at this 0.00% to 0.25% or near-0% as it has been now that things are getting less-bad and even getting better.  The notion here is that the announcement for the Fed Funds target will remain as it has been.  And contrary to all of the other noise, this might not be the last FOMC statement without a formal exit from the Federal Reserve from its free money policy.  But there is also the notion that rates could get higher and faster than what the Fed Funds Futures are predicting.
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Posted on: September 20, 2009 – 11:06 am in Bonds, Economy, Options, Politics

Unusual Options Trading Screens (EK, ETFC, ODP, ARNA, FCX, S, FORM, POT)

It is the weekend, and that means that our end-of-week screen for unusual options trading activity is complete.  Of course expiration date throws a wrench in any screens, but we found some very unusual options trading in others not tied to options expiration and roll-out trades.  We have provided a link through to each for more color and analysis on the specific options and stock moves at VSInvestor.com:

Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) tanked on high stock volume from the KKR deal this week. But the real impressive area was the unusual options trading.

E*TRADE Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC) is under $2.00, yet options trading is looking very active.  Here we gave price triggers to watch out for as possible resistance, if you can use such a thing on a $2.00 stock.

Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) is very rare to see on the unusual stock options list, yet there it was. The big trade was out to January.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARNA) was not just impressive.  It was a huge winner since it was down and then closed up and saw high options and stock trading.  This will be a key watch-list stock for traders this coming week. The options trading may have been a roll-out.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) very active compared to normal volume in options trading, yet not in the stock volume… $1,000 gold is the likely trigger.

Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) was very active in stocks and in options, probably a continued bet that management and operations may need to learn to speak German….

FormFactor Inc. (NASDAQ: FORM) may be a hedge or income trade of some sort, but this is a very odd pattern by any measure.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) saw a bullish bias in the options roll as September-2009 contracts expired.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.  You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week for top day trader alerts, options screens, analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPO’s, key secondary offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.

JON C. OGG

Posted on: September 19, 2009 – 10:33 am in Options, Trading Alert, , , , , , , ,

Options Trading & Expiration Stack Up On Citigroup (C)

Pandit Citi ImageCitigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) has been one of the most active stocks on the NYSE for weeks and weeks now.  Despite low price stocks usually not being strong in options trading volume, that has not been the case at all in Citigroup.  The options trading volume is swarmed every day with a flood of options trading.  Ditto for Citigroup shares.  It is said that stocks with highly active volume and high options volume gravitate toward the closest strike price on options expiration date.  If that holds true today, then Citi is going to get pulled down in the afternoon.

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Posted on: September 18, 2009 – 1:10 pm in Banking, Financial Stocks, Options, Trading Alert,

Top Day Trader Alerts (AIG, HLCS, OSIR, ITLN, SPDR)

We already saw many bounces from contact notifications on Wall Street, so many traders may still be off or getting slowly back in the saddle.  That being said, some of the active trader alerts are not as robust or as strong as they might be on other days that are not after a holiday.  Here are the Tuesday day trader alerts with more detailed trading volume and price analysis in the links over at VSInvestor.com:

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is getting hit on another analyst downgrade.

Helicos BioSciences Corporation (NASDAQ: HLCS) is up big after selling four Helicos Genetic Analysis Systems. -JON OGG

Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSIR) is getting clobbered and will be active in stocks and options on an exponential basis on negative stem cell study news.

Intellon Corp. (NASDAQ: ITLN) is soaring by 45% on a buyout offer…

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is very active because of $1,000 gold…

You can join our open email distribution list which goes out several times per week if you wish to be notified by email when the top day trader alerts hit, along with news of IPO’s, key offerings, guru investor data on Buffett and others, mergers, and more.

JON C. OGG
SEPTEMBER 8, 2009

Posted on: September 8, 2009 – 9:26 am in After-Hours Activity, Options, Pre-Market Activity, Trading Alert, , , , ,

The Unusual Suspects (TSN, CSCO, GENZ, ARIA, VHC, XOM, USU, EBAY, FUQI)

It always good to keep watch lists.  There were some key issues over the last week that will have important implications for the coming week (or weeks).  This is definitely the case for Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN) and Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), both on deck for earnings this week.  In biotech land, your two key earnings reports will be in Genzyme Corporation (Nasdaq: GENZ) and Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ARIA).  A tiny company called VirnetX Holding Corporation (NYSE Amex: VHC) got itself on the map and will continue to be one to watch.  Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and USEC Inc. (NYSE: USU) now both have issues, although for entirely different reasons.  eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) also landed itself on the cover of  Barron’s and Fuqi International, Inc. (NASDAQ: FUQI) scored a different top prize.

We have compiled detailed reviews here for those charts and what to look for in the coming week and beyond.
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Posted on: August 1, 2009 – 10:29 am in Biotech, Charts, China, Earnings, Editor's Picks, Options, Technology Companies, Trading Alert, , , , , , , , ,

Unusual Options Trading in Mosaic, Options Price Predicting (MOS, VALE)

Mosaic LogoWe saw very unusual options trading late today during the last hour of trading in shares of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS).  This is the day after reports that Brazil’s Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) was interested in the company as one of the possible acquisitions in the potash and agri-business.  We also saw a late-day sudden move of over $2.00 to the downside.

This highly unusual options trading in Mosaic had all the characteristics of last minute options rolls as today is the expiration date for the July 2009 stock options.  Interestingly enough, the same sort of late-day dip was seen in shares of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT) and even in Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE: IPI).  Potash Corp. also saw some obvious options roll trading that looked like a mini volume spike, but not in Intrepid.

Unless told differently, we will attribute all of the late-day action to the options roll.  Either way, we wanted to dig down and try to use options as a prediction tool to see just what price is expected to come if Vale does make a play for Mosaic.  This movement was quick enough and violent enough that we would not be surprised if this ends up being one of those classical trading patterns where large options trading triggered a big move and caused the rumor mongers to start barking.
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Posted on: July 17, 2009 – 4:06 pm in Agriculture, Mergers and Buy Outs, Options, Rumors, Trading Alert, , , ,

Karmazin Contract Extended, With Raise and Massive Options (SIRI)

SIRIUS LOGOSIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) has extended its contract with CEO Mel Karmazin.  Today, June 30, 2009, the company entered into an amendment to the amended employment agreement, dated November 18, 2004, with Karmazin.
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Posted on: July 1, 2009 – 12:29 pm in Compensation, Management Change, Media, Options, Satellite, Shareholder Issues,

Buying/Selling Berkshire Hathaway The Cheap Way: Stock Options (BRK.B, BRK.A)

Buffett ImageAdmittedly, this almost feels strange.  Before this week there have not been any stock options for Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B).  We received word from the CBOE that this is now no longer the case as there will be CBOE-listed stock options in the Class-B shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.  There will not be options on the much higher-priced A shares, but what we find interesting is that when share prices get very high or when a stock is not that liquid it seems that traders and investors alike flock to stock options to get exposure rather than using their full cash to buy the stock.
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Posted on: June 19, 2009 – 10:19 am in Buffett, Options, Trading Alert, Value Investing, ,

Time Warner Looks Ahead in Central European Media Investment (CETV, TWX)

Money Stack ImageCentral European Media Enterprises Ltd. (NASDAQ: CETV) issued a statement this morning that the Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) investment closed.  It is usually hard to know if the seller or the buyer gets the better deal depending upon the market and a myriad of other factosr, but in this case it seems that Time Warner is looking ahead of the game.
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Posted on: May 18, 2009 – 9:54 am in ADR, Insider Activity, Media, Mergers and Buy Outs, Options, ,

Yum Chairman/CEO Novak Pockets $30M More In Stock Options (YUM)

money-stack-image55If you think that high compensation and getting rich on stock options was only in technology companies or on Wall Street, that is not the case.  David Novak, Chairman & CEO of Yum Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) has just pocketed about $30 million before taxes via the exercise of stock options.

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Posted on: April 29, 2009 – 12:29 pm in Food, Insider Activity, Options, Retail,

Dendreon’s 24-Hour Countdown With Options (DNDN)

Using stock options in Dendreon Corp. (NASDAQ: DNDN) shows that the expectations of major price moves  have not let up, and the company’s stock is trading up yet again ahead of the data due to be released on Tuesday at the American Urological Association in Chicago.  The data, due to post shortly before the close, could formalize the make-or-break status of PROVENGE for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer.  And therefore, the company.  This will hopefully be the first formal data after the company said that its IMPACT study of PROVENGE for advanced prostate cancer met endpoints and was consistent with prior findings.  Again, no formal details nor any formal statistics have yet been offered.  We have the baseline endpoint goal for statistical significance as being 22% and a survival benefit of roughly 4 and-a-half months.
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Posted on: April 27, 2009 – 11:30 am in Biotech, Cult Stock, Options, Trading Alert,

Options Bet: No Bank of America Nationalization (BAC)

B_of_a_logo_2Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) has been the worst performer this year in the financial sector, or at least of all the large money center banks.  The reasons are more on fears but the fears have been creating some actual reactions with dire consequences.  And suddenly, Senator Dodd’s comments about not nationalizing Bank of America and the possibility of loosening or tweaking the mark-to-market rules have offered some stability.  Shares are back up to flat today and we have seen more than 500 million shares trade hands.

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Posted on: February 5, 2009 – 2:07 pm in Banking, Financial Stocks, Options, Rumors, Trading Alert,

Anti-General Electric Bets Grow Stronger (GE)

Ge_logoGeneral Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) briefly hit a new 52-week low earlier this morning.  What is interesting is that there has been no support of the stock heading into Friday morning’s earnings announcement.  Expectations are getting stronger that more bad news is headed its way.  We do not want to say that traders are betting that shares will get cut in half, but conviction against the conglomerate is growing.

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Posted on: January 21, 2009 – 2:34 pm in Conglomerates, Options, Trading Alert,

Amazon (AMZN): No Kindle Under The Tree This Year

Sad_clown

Oprah helped get Mr.Obama elected President. At the very least she brought him some remarkable national attention.

The famous talk show host and celebrity may have also given the new Amazon (AMZN) Kindle electronic book reader a huge boost. But, in this case, the results were counter-productive.

Oprah had Amazon CEO and founder Jeff Bezos on her nationally syndicated show to talk about the Kindle. She even went to far as to say that it was one of the greatest devices she had ever seen. That started a run on Kindles and that means there won’t be any on sale for the rest of the year.

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Posted on: December 5, 2008 – 7:42 am in Options,

Insight In Most Active Options (PG, HUN, GE)

We have evaluated several options trades today which struck us as rather unusual and may be indicative of speculative bets.  We have put links through to each full story over at VSInvestor.com where we identify selected volume spike equity trading as well as unusual options trading.   Here is today’s list of unusual options trading:

Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) massive trading recently looks like synthetic short selling.

Traders appear to be betting on a settlement in the Apollo-led Hexcion buyout of Huntsman Corp. (NYSE: HUN).

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) appears to be seeing speculative buying in call option.

Jon C. Ogg
November 3, 2008

Posted on: November 3, 2008 – 1:58 pm in Options, Trading Alert, , ,