We want to know what you think below.  Look at how much some banks have paid to settle overdraft charges and then decide in our poll below…. Should banks have overdraft fees???

So here are some recent settlements and other overdraft fee news…

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was asked by the U.S. District Court of Southern Florida in Miami to pay $110 million over a class suit for charging of inappropriate overdraft fees to its customers. Zions Bancorp. (ZION) was accused in late 2011 of improper overdraft fees over its policies in place from 2005 to 2010.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and Commerce Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: CBSH) were ordered to make payments over unfair trade practices in overdraft situations: Commerce Banc paid $18.3 million; Bank of America was asked to pay $410 million to settle unfair overdraft fees charges.

Now go back to 2010. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was ordered to pay $203 million by a California court to compensate customers suing over unfair overdraft fees.

JON C. OGG

Fortunately for investors in retail stocks, Target and Wal-Mart are not Sears. We just featured this one as one of the worst big stock stories of 2011, but we did not call for a bankruptcy nor did we include it on our list of stocks unlikely to survive 2012.  The most recent effort to spin off Orchard Supply Hardware Stores (NASDAQ: OSH) is interesting on the surface but it is just too small to make a difference at this point.

Unfortunately, a report on the CNN Money site did note that there are rumors of a Sears bankruptcy.  That is their story rather than ours.  Still, analysts have pounded upon Sears and some see much more downside on top of the pain and suffering we have seen in recent weeks (and years).

• In early December came word that Imperial Capital issued a “underperform (SELL) rating and said that it could go down to $6.00 in the new two to three years.
• Barclays recently cited that Sears appliance market share could fall to 31% from 39% and offer a large reward for other appliance sellers.
• On December 30, Zacks put Sears on its #5 list, a list of stocks with a “Strong Sell” rating.
• On December 28 came word that Credit Suisse was maintaining and Underperform rating… with a $20 price target objective.
• Fitch also lowered its corporate credit rating in the last week of December.
• Barron’s called for the start of 2012 that Sears could lose another 80% of its value.

Sears is up 0.1% on Tuesday at $31.46 verus a new 52-week range of $31.17 to $94.97 and its market cap is now down to about $3.35 billion.  The most recent short interest was listed as 10.88 million shares as of mid-December before the latest warning.

The saga continues. The question is whether or not this turnaround can ever come to fruition. Please feel free to take the absolute yes/no anonymous poll below.

JON C. OGG

This is going to possibly have huge ramifications for the ETFs and ETNs of the ProShares UltraShort Euro (NYSE: EUO), CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE), and the ProShares Ultra Euro (NYSE: ULE).

We are going to spare you all of the yes, no, maybe comments and datapoints that have emerged in the last 72 hours from Greece, Italy and the rest of the PIIGS as the Europeans are struggling to keep things from getting too much out of control. This also will hopefully not influence your answers. We want to know what you think in a simple YES or NO or “scenario two” poll. If you don’t know or don’t have any reason for having an opinion, then this is not a poll intended for you.

24/7 Wall St. wants to know what you think, but only in the most extreme … No answers of “undecided” allowed:

JON C. OGG

In our poll below we have no undecided options this time.  We just want the ”decided” opinions today. 

There are some articles which are critical of the deal, but we just really want to know what you think.  Here are some quick widely spread articles if you wish to read before the poll at the bottom:

• The Economist wrote about the rescue plan: summit was supposed to put an end to the euro crisis. It hasn’t!
•  A Dow Jones story on NASDAQ.com noted that Germany’s highest court has “halted the use of a special parliamentary sub-committee to decide over euro-zone bailouts” as another obstacle.
• The Daily Capitalist issued a brief guide to the crisis on Thursday and noted as the first point “It isn’t over.”
• Reuters offers a skeptical view as well.

JON C. OGG

The survey shows that 79% of investment managers surveyed in the latest quarterly survey say that they do not believe the U.S. economy is entering a double-dip recession.  We would note that there are two issues to consider here.  First is that this survey took place between August 23 and September 2.  Second is that the survey is based upon 102 fund managers, which some could easily argue is not exactly a broad consensus.

This comes at a time when even surveys differ from each other.  The CEO Roundtable has now turned for the worse.  We are also getting an equally mixed picture between the leading companies that measure international trade as well.

Of the 79% who believe we are not headed for another recession, some 78% of this subgroup cited strong corporate balance sheets and high corporate profit levels.  Of the subgroup, some 49% also pointed to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates low until mid-2013. Additional indicators cited were declining oil prices and U.S. dollar weakness.

Despite the group not believing a recession is coming, 62% do expect growth to remain low for the next several years.

Of the recession camp, those managers who believe the U.S. economy is entering a recession is 11% and the other 10% said that we are already in a double-dip recession.  Of the recession group, employment recovery was cited by 95% as the recession exit strategy.

Russell’s observation indicates that the bulk of managers see a buying opportunity in the equity markets.  Some 57% believe that the stock market is currently undervalued even in the full group surveyed.  That is double the amount that said that in June.  Another interesting point is that only 10% of all those surveyed believe that the market is overvalued.  Some 32% believe the market is fairly valued, and that was 61% back in June.

• Bullish sentiment for U.S. large cap growth stocks increased 13 percentage points from the June survey to 73%.
• Bullishness for U.S. large cap value stocks hit an all-time survey high at 63% after a 14 point jump from June.
• Bullishness for emerging market equities hit an all-time survey high at 74%, up 15 points from June.

Russell noted that a resolution of the European debt issue is now the dominant issue and greatest threat to systematic stability. Russell used opinions of U.S. senior-level investment decision makers at both equity investment management firms and at fixed-income investment management firms.

JON C. OGG

No money was injured while filming

Investors and economists vary on how much credence they are willing to give to any single survey.   The excessive bearishness of last week’s AAII survey  came  as  the Dow Jones Industrial Average was challenging 12,000.  We could not help but wonder if the absolutes of bullish, bearish, or neutral sentiments were part of the problem because many investors are not really trained to think that way.

The AAII survey from last week noted the following:

• Bullish sentiment was down 5.8 points to 24.4%, the lowest since last August.
• Bearish sentiment was up 14.4 points to 47.7%, the highest since last August.
• Neutral sentiment fell by 8.5 points to 27.9%.

As of about 2 PM Eastern Time today, our poll from late Friday which was sent to our open newsletter readers over the weekend had 889 responses.  We admit that generally we would prefer for a poll to have more than 1,000 responses for a much more certain outcome.  Our take  is that investors either want to look for bargains, or that they think stocks will continue to slide, or that they indecisive and have decided to move more into cash to hide out during uncertainty.  This makes our outcome far different from the AAII survey and we cannot help but wonder if the investor community is getting overly bogged down by the economic numbers being reported today and by absolutes of all the world’s woes.

The “caution” cannot be avoided in either study, but the AAII survey would lead you to believe that far more market participants are out of the market for months.  Our poll that chased the AAII survey shows that there may be close to an equal number of investors who are starting to look for bargains now that stocks are so far off.

We ALWAYS have at least some doubt about  polling results.  This is true whether it is our own survey or whether it is someone else conducting a survey.  Behavior is often modified in studies, and there is an old saying that lab rats behave differently once they realize they are lab rats.

Regardless of how the results can be compared, or shown to be in fault, it seems fair to say that you can  argue that we are on the front-side of the next recession or that perhaps the caution and weak data is just transitory.  If you look at the chart below from StockCharts.com comparing the May and June performance of 2011 to 2010, it is hard to ignore at least some of the similarities. Maybe this time really is different.  You can always find someone who will say “This time is different.”

As a reminder, extreme survey readings are generally reverse indicators.  The big bounces come when investor sentiment is at its worst.  The biggest sell-offs occur when the bulk of investors are at the most bullish levels.  The trick is knowing when the inflection actually is.  Markets can remain irrational longer than most can remain solvent.

Another great market slogan came from George Soros where he noted, “Contrary to the tenets of market fundamentalism, financial markets do not tend toward equilibrium; they are crisis prone.”

JON C. OGG

Here was a market snapshot at 4:00 PM EST with unofficial closing bell levels:

• DJIA.  11,954.90 (-169.46; -1.40%)
• NASDAQ 2,643.73    -41.14; -1.53%)
• S&P500 1,270.97 (-18.03; -1.40%)
• 30YR-TBOND  4.18% (-0.04)
• 10YR-TNOTE  2.971% (-0.027)
• VIX         18.68 (+0.91)

So, here is what we want to know.  Do you care?

JON C. OGG

Today came a Business Wire press release called “AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC and Google Inc. expand their Low-income Housing Tax Credit Investment Partnership” late in the day.  Normally, when you see the terms “low-income housing tax credit” you think of government assistance.  Before we get too hard on Google, it is quite possible that this does actually make sense.  It is very possible that Google’s Treasurer, CFO, and outside counsel have all determined that this is Google’s best tax strategy.

In Google’s first quarter earnings report it disclosed, “Income Taxes – Our effective tax rate was 25% [updated from 21%] for the first quarter of 2011.”

Today’s press release showed that AEGON USA Realty Advisors, LLC, “a commercial real estate investment and management arm of AEGON and manager of a Low-Income Housing Tax Credit fund (Garnet LIHTC Fund XXV, LLC, “Fund”) for Google Inc. (“Google”) has added an additional property to the Fund with a new $47 million Google investment.”

The new property is called the Towers at Kuhio Park Terrace and is located in Honolulu, Hawaii.  The property is a public housing community that is two different sixteen-story high rises. The report showed that the fund will “provide a major source of funding for the rehabilitation of 555 units for families.”

Google’s Vice President and Treasurer, Brent Callinicos, did note in this release, “We’re proud to once again partner with AEGON to help people afford quality homes. This initiative reflects our continued commitment to invest in areas that not only make good financial sense but also benefit local communities.” The first tranche of the Fund closed earlier this year and included a $28 million investment in two low-income housing developments in Minneapolis, MN (Riverside Plaza Apartments) and Sante Fe, NM (Villa Alegre Senior Apartments).

AEGON noted that The Towers are just the first phase of a 1,025 community that is being redeveloped by the Michaels Development Company in partnership with Vitus Group and the Hawaii Public Housing Authority with new windows, doors, plumbing, appliances, and electrical fixtures.  The property is also adjacent to the headquarters for Parents and Children Together.

Google does of course have the Google Foundation.  Its projects include the Google Earth Engine, Flu trends, crisis response, power meters, and efforts which develop utility-scale renewable energy cheaper than coal. In its history section of the foundation website, it noted “Since its inception, Google.org has committed over $100 million in grants to non-profits and investments in companies with breakthrough technologies.”

Google’s share price of about $519.00 generates a market capitalization rate of $167.3 billion and its 52-week trading range is $433.63 to $642.96.  The stock has been stuck for the better part of two years now per many investors.  Larry Page is now back as the company’s CEO running day-to-day operations and Chairman Eric Schmidt is now focusing more on strategic efforts rather than providing what many pundits have referred to as “adult supervision” for Sergey, Larry, and the rest of the crew.

Google is approaching the $40 billion mark in cash and cash equivalents.  The company has not ever paid a single dividend to the common shareholder.  It is very possible that Google might be driving down its tax rates in states and with federal agencies by being philanthropic with its cash.  We just want to give you both sides of the coin before we ask you the question.

This is one of the big unknown issues out there when it comes to what shareholders want versus what management wants.  Maybe it is the same, maybe it is different.  It is also a topic which spans shareholder issues, corporate governance, taxation, accounting, philanthropy, and even politics.  So, we ask simply…

JON C. OGG

We would have liked to have seen more responses but on an individual issue sometimes you can only get so many real opinions.  We generally like to see results of a poll having 1,000 answers before making an official prediction.  The fact that there were 264 results as of 8:00 AM EST tells us that the interest has not chased the deal higher and higher, and the results show the number of responders who answered each choice on valuation per share and what the percentage rates are.  Over half of our readers responded that the price is too high.  When asked “How Much Is LinkedIn Worth Per Share?” the responses were as follows:

• Whoa, it’s already too high!… 147… 56% 
• $42 to $45 is the top!… 50… 19% 
• Over $60 per share!… 35… 13% 
• $45 to $50 per share!… 19… 7% 
• $50 to $60 per share!… 13… 5%

If you wanted to take the other side of the argument and argue that crowds are always wrong, then maybe the valuation is really much higher.  If that is true, then the 5% crowd wins with a $50 to $60 per share valuation.  The real test will be in 90 days and then in 180 days as more shares will start having a chance of coming to the market.

LinkedIn is only selling about 8% of its stock and the capital raise is going to be about $350 million.  Perhaps the real winners were its venture backers: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), McGraw Hills Companies (NYSE: MHP), and a unit of SAP AG (NYSE: SAP). 

The secondary winner of today’s IPO is of course none other than Mark Zuckerberg and the rest of the kids over at Facebook, who have reportedly been having discussions with investment bankers in recent days and weeks.

We have heard that a premium open is coming on top of the $45.00 price, but the limited response from our readership gives us some pause about being overly excited up at these prices.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more. 

JON C. OGG

We have a brief poll/survey for investors at the end of this article to see what investors and traders think this pricing should be and/or where it should trade after it opens up.  These can offer a lot of insight into real IPO demand.

If there is one group that is going to be watching closely, it is Mark Zuckerberg and the Facebook crowd.  The reception of LinkedIn could greatly influence how soon the kids want to come public, and we already have reports about discussions with underwriters at Facebook.  Linked is at least considered a real social networking company and it has business subscribers.  We have seen very poor social networking IPOs so far.  Renren Inc. (NYSE: RENN) has been a disaster so far, but speculators and traders appear to be starting to nibble now that it has fallen so much. FriendFinder Networks Inc. (NASDAQ: FFN) has been a total disaster after its IPO but it is one that we do not really consider a true social-networking site like a traditional company.

LinkedIn is offering 4,827,804 shares of its Class A common stock, while selling holders are offering 3,012,196 shares of Class A common stock.  The company’s stock will trade under the stock ticker of “LNKD” on the New York Stock Exchange. As a reminder, when you combine the A-shares and the B-shares, the total shares outstanding after the offering will be 94,498,627 shares.  At $45.00 per share, that implies a market cap of roughly $4.25 billion.

The underlying winners from the LinkedIn IPO may be its backers.  There are many, but its public venture investors include Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS), McGraw Hills Companies (NYSE: MHP), and a unit of SAP AG (NYSE: SAP).  The book-runners are Morgan Stanley, BofA/Merrill Lynch, and J.P. Morgan.  Co-managers are listed as Allen & Company and also UBS.  The company has granted a 30-day overallotment option of up to an additional 1,176,000 shares of common stock.

Of the shares being sold by the company, those proceeds are earmarked for working capital and general corporate purposes, which the company noted “including further expansion of our product development and field sales organizations, and for capital expenditures. In addition, we may use a portion of the proceeds from this offering for acquisitions of complementary businesses, technologies or other assets.”

The company filing noted on its financial performance, “We have achieved significant growth as our network has scaled and as we have expanded our product offerings. From 2009 to 2010, net revenue increased $123.0 million, or 102%, net income increased $19.4 million, or 487%, and adjusted EBITDA increased $33.3 million, or 227%. In the three months ended March 31, 2011, net revenue increased $49.2 million, or 110%, net income increased $0.3 million, or 14%, and adjusted EBITDA increased $4.2 million, or 46%, over the three months ended March 31, 2010. See “Adjusted EBITDA” below for a definition of adjusted EBITDA and a reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to net income (loss).”

Stay tuned here this week.  LinkedIn is coming public and it’s hot. We have a Wednesday night pricing for a Thursday IPO-trading debut as of now.

As noted, we have a brief poll or survey. If you would not want shares of LinkedIn you can answer that too, but we are interested in finding some sort of equilibrium for a fair market pricing.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more. 

JON C. OGG