Sources vary from all over the web, and mainstream media articles often have different figures when they are close together in time.  Official sales data is not updated all the time.  Still, the $30 billion franchise value is heading up now because of the 3D launch of ”Star Wars: The Phantom Menace” as the (probable) first but not last of the Star Wars remakes coming in 3D.

The relaunch of the movie franchise in 3D is likely to boost the franchise’s value much more when you count ticket sales, and then tally up merchandise sales, new media sales, product sales and more.  Box Office Mojo noted that The Phantom Menace in 3D is going to appear in 2,655 theaters.  Throw in the intellectual property values and future sales, and the value will head far north of $30 billion. 

It was just in 2007 that Forbes noted, “Star Wars’ initial release was followed by another five blockbuster films and a mini-industry of tapes and DVDs, toys, video games and books. Taken together over its 30 years of cultural dominance, the Star Wars franchise has earned more than $22 billion.”   Another figure in late 2011 put the total Star Wars franchise value at a whopping $27 billion from Statistic Brain (using Forbes and Lucasfilm data).  We also have gathered more recent data than those prior calculations.

Star Wars creator George Lucas is now a multi-billionaire.  The Forbes wealthiest 400 list puts Lucas at a net worth of $3.2 billion in its September 2011 report and that is lower than the $3.6 billion in a prior report.

Read Also: The Most Valuable Film Franchises of All-Time

Another 2007 figure used by Forbes was a monstrous $9 billion in toys with another $1.6 billion at the time having been generated by Star Wars video games.  More toys have sold since then, and more video game sales have been seen.

Brand new data from Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) shows over 2 million MMORPG have sold of ‘Star Wars: The Old Republic’ through the end of January with some 1.7 million online users.  Taking just half of the users with a two-month average life of subscriber dollars comes to $180 million in total revenues between sales and subscriptions in just the first quarter of 2012.  Then there will be the tail revenue stream from loyalists and those in the next upgrade coming soon, generating millions of dollars more each month. If the success remains, a business mind would easily predict another MMORPG sale in the future.

Lucas Licensing of Lucasfilms has noted over $20 billion in consumer sales worldwide.  This includes Hasbro, Inc. (NASDAQ: HAS) and Kenner toys, merchandise sold, over 100 million books sold (with over 80 New York Times best sellers), museum exhibitions, apparel, consumer electronics, housewares, and the endless lines of other products.  The $20 billion figure has been used for quite some time as well by Lucasfilm on its site.  Imagine the sales that will soon be counted if you just looked at the major retail store websites: Toys R Us had 603 items; WalMart had 539 items; and Target had 800 items.

The Total Value of Star Wars Today…

• $4.27 Billion in worldwide box office sales (See full chart below), not adjusted for ticket price hikes in today’s dollars
• $20 billion in Licensing sales (toys, books, apparel, consumer products, and on)
• $3 billion in video games (over 100 million units sold)
• $2.5 billion, and climbing, in DVD sales
• $800 million (or more) and climbing in movie rentals (going from DVD back to VHS and even Betamax)

THE GRAND TOTAL… $30.57 BILLION, and growing…

Forget about the $30.5 billion in total sales so far.  That assumes that all sales suddenly stop in the next few weeks. We will not count the $3.2 billion in net worth of George Lucas because that is a personal net worth even if there is overlap in some of the areas we would cover.

The casino and resort giant sold 1,811,313 shares of its common stock at $9.00 per share to raise gross proceeds of about $16 million before fees and discounts.  Keep in mind that this is the Harrah’s-Caesars deal which was a $15 billion buyout back at the peak of private equity.

$16 million… $15 billion… $28 billion.  Whatever it boils down to…  The figure we were counting on was up to $223.4 million in additional stock, the overwhelming majority of which would be coming from private equity owners. Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE: APO) is not even reacting positively to the news with a 0.8% drop down to $14.97 so far today, probably because it is not selling shares.  Paulson & Co. has the right to sell along with affiliated groups of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS).

Even a $500 million offering could have set the pace for up to a decade for all of the backers to exit their positions.

The reason that the company chose this model is likely to keep an initial higher value for a limited share float.  That establishes a fair market value that is probably higher than if the firms all sold shares in a huge offering for the market to absorb.  It allows private equity firms to liquidate in batches and it also gives those private equity firms an ability to peg a true market value to the shares rather than a theoretical value of the shares based solely upon other casino stock values.

Our take: The private equity firms should dismantled the assets into separate companies and sold them off or brought them public as smaller casino properties.

In some manner of speaking, this is far less transparent than exactly the ‘unlocking of Singapore and Macau’ values from Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ: WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands Corporation (NYSE: LVS).

Does us calling it a sham of an IPO mean that it will flop?  Not at all.  As we are publishing this, the value is up 50% from the $9.00 pricing at $13.70 on almost 3.9 million shares.  With such a low float, who knows how high it could go.  Still, if you are a ‘widows and orphans’ investor you probably better look elsewhere.

At least this IPO did not launch on the Ides of March.

JON C. OGG

Jon Marino of PEHub.com noted that P.E. firms are hiring and referenced a follow-up report for BDO USA’s third annual private equity “PErspective” report… 57% of private equity executives increased professional staffing and 62% plan to hire again this year.  This is a complete reversal from the layoff waves of prior years.  Here is more detail from that report.

Whether you like millionaires or billionaires or hate them, the one aspect that is so unfairly portrayed about companies bought by private equity firms is as follows: Most businesses bought by private equity firms need to be turned around or need to be run better.  Sure, they get leveraged up and they scrap inefficient operations.  The dirty secret that private equity firms are not defending enough is that many of these companies would have headed for bankruptcy in the long-term if they had not stepped in.  If that results in a liquidation rather than a pure bankruptcy, guess how many jobs get lost at those companies… all of them, rather than some.

The business sector is not just a one-way street.  Companies hire workers in good times and most fire in bad times.  We even ran our own 2011 Layoff Kings.

JON C. OGG

A fresh filing is one that frankly shows desparation or the agony of defeat.  The combined outfits are worth billions of dollars.  While the total to be sold by Caesars Entertainment Corporation on a continuous basis is listed as being $500 million, the company noted, ” We are selling an aggregate of 1,811,313 shares in this offering. The initial public offering price of our common stock is expected to be between $8.00 and $10.00 per share.”

Wait one second here.  That is about $18.1 million in gross proceeds.  If you look back at the Top IPOs to watch you will be mystified.  The stock will trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “CZR.”

Caesars has the following underwriters: Credit Suisse; Citigroup; BofA Merrill Lynch; Deutsche Bank Securities; KeyBanc Capital Markets; Lebenthal & Co.; and Ramirez & Co. The underwriters will have a 30-day option to purchase up to 271,697 additional shares from the company at the initial public offering price less underwriting discounts and commissions.

In the amended prospectus, the company does note that the selling shareholders may sell up to $223.4 million in common stock in the offering.  The problem is that the prospectus does not read in the normal way of other prospectus filings. The private equity firms are currently a wild card when it comes to how much may be sold.  Why the private equity owners have not broken Caesars up into bits and pieces is a mystery.  The Harrah’s acquisition is now part of the Caesars group and here is the description (as of September 30, 2011):

owned, operated or managed 52 casinos in 12 U.S. states and seven countries primarily under the Caesars, Harrah’s and Horseshoe brand names and the facilities had an aggregate of approximately three million square feet of gaming space and approximately 42,000 hotel rooms; its Total Rewards customer loyalty program had over 40 million members.

If the private equity companies were to somehow get the maximum sale off of $500 million, it could take a decade or more to exit. Maybe our idea is a silly one.  Maybe this is the private equity value game at work where the private equity firms can use the public market value of a small float for the entire organization without unloading it.  What are the odds?

FULL SEC FILING

JON C. OGG

While Facebook has said that it is choosing the “FB” stock ticker, it did not specify whether or not the NYSE or NASDAQ would get the listing.  Keep in mind that Mark Zuckerberg is where the buck stops if you evaluate the share structure.

Be advised that there is a dual-class of stock with A shares and B shares.  Each share of Class A common stock is entitled to one vote per share. Each share of Class B common stock is entitled to ten votes per share and is convertible at any time into one share of Class A common stock.

The underwriting group is as follows: lead book-runners are Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs; co-managers are BofA/Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, and Allen & Company.

BASIC STATS:

• 845 million monthly active users,
• 2.7 billion likes and comments per day,
• 250 million photos uploaded per day,
• and 100 billion friendships.
• The company also has 483 million daily active users.
• It also had roughly 3200 employees as of December 31.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is listed as a competitor and it is an owner, while Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is not an owner and is listed as a key competitor.  Twitter is competitor.  As a reminder, GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC) is an owner of stock as well.  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. (NYSE: IPG) still owns a small stake as well.

We are now finally getting to see at least some of the preliminary figures from Facebook to use for financial analysis:

• 2009 revenues $777M, $122M net income for shareholders;
• 2010 revenues $1.974B, $372M net income for shareholders;
• 2011 revenues $3.711B, $668M net income for shareholders.
• The company’s cash and marketable securities at the end of 2011 was $3.908 billion.

Zynga Inc. (NASDAQ: ZNGA) accounted for about 12% of 2011 total revenues for Facebook.

Mark Zuckerberg owns 28.4% of the total voting power, but he has a proxy over insider shares that gives him 56.9% of the total voting power.  Other big holders are James Breyer at 11.4% and Peter A. Thiel at 2.5%.  Large Class B share holders (1 million or more shares) are Sheryl Sandberg, David Ebersman, Mike Schroepfer. Theodore Ullyor, Marc Andreesson…

T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ: TROW) owns over 6 million class A shares and affiliates of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) own over 65.9 million Class A shares.

As of December 31, 2011 there were outstanding:

• 117,097,143 shares of our Class A common stock held by approximately 110 stockholders;
• 1,758,902,390 shares of our Class B common stock held by approximately 1,070 stockholders;
• 258,539,434 shares issuable upon exercise of outstanding stock options;
• 378,772,184 shares subject to outstanding restricted stock units (RSUs).

RISK FACTORS AS FOLLOWS:

• “If we fail to retain existing users or add new users, or if our users decrease their level of engagement with Facebook, our revenue, financial results, and business may be significantly harmed;”
• “We generate a substantial majority of our revenue from advertising. The loss of advertisers, or reduction in spending by advertisers with Facebook, could seriously harm our business;”
• “Growth in use of Facebook through our mobile products, where we do not currently display ads, as a substitute for use on personal computers may negatively affect our revenue and financial results;”
• “Facebook user growth and engagement on mobile devices depend upon effective operation with mobile operating systems, networks, and standards that we do not control;”
• “We may not be successful in our efforts to grow and further monetize the Facebook Platform;”
• “Our business is highly competitive, and competition presents an ongoing threat to the success of our business;”
• “Improper access to or disclosure of our users’ information could harm our reputation and adversely affect our business;”
• “Our business is subject to complex and evolving U.S. and foreign laws and regulations regarding privacy, data protection, and other matters. Many of these laws and regulations are subject to change and uncertain interpretation, and could harm our business;”
• “Our CEO has control over key decision making as a result of his control of a majority of our voting stock;”
• “The loss of Mark Zuckerberg, Sheryl K. Sandberg, or other key personnel could harm our business;”
• “We anticipate that we will expend substantial funds in connection with tax withholding and remittance obligations related to the initial settlement of our restricted stock units (RSUs) approximately six months following our initial public offering;”
• “The market price of our Class A common stock may be volatile or may decline, and you may not be able to resell your shares at or above the initial public offering price;”
• “Substantial blocks of our total outstanding shares may be sold into the market as “lock-up” periods end, as further described in “Shares Eligible for Future Sale.” If there are substantial sales of shares of our common stock, the price of our Class A common stock could decline.”

Again, the Top 17 IPOs to Watch in 2012 is here.

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The full S-1 SEC FILING is here.  PS… The traffic to the SEC.gov website was severely limited for almost an hour due to excessive traffic flooding the site due to readers wanting to read the Facebook S-1.

January 2012 is the first time in memory that two different samples of the T206 Wagner card have been for sale in the same month.  If you have nearly unlimited means, a T206 Wagner can end up in your collection right now.  Another T206 Wagner just sold in early January.

Published reports indicate that there may be 50 to 100 samples of the T206 Honus Wagner that exist, but there may only be around 50 in existence after speaking with industry sources.  A sale of $2.8 million for the “Wayne Gretzky” T206 Honus Wagner in 2007 set a record, and that was after the exact same card had been bought for about $2.35 million earlier that same year. 

The reason this card is so rare is known as Honus Wagner decided to have the American Tobacco Company withdraw his card from the T206 series.  The “why” this card is so rare remains a debate even today.  Only a limited number of this card made it out into the public, or at least only a few which are known to have survived.  In the late 1800s and early 1900s, baseball cards were promotional inserts for cigarettes packs and tobacco packages, as well as made for other products.  They were far from being kids’ bubble gum cards that later generations would come to cherish.

The most common belief is that Wagner was anti-tobacco and did not want his image promoting cigarettes and tobacco products to children.  Maybe, but Maybe not.  This may have simply been a contract dispute over compensation or terms.  Here is the argument for the latter case… Honus Wagner’s image appeared on cigar boxes in some of the same years around the debated time of 1909 to 1911 when the T206 cards were distributed.  Robert Edwards Auctions has auctioned two such cigar boxes in recent years, and the Baseball Almanac shows these images as well.

While most baseball cards rise and fall in value and can be very cyclical, that just has not been the case for a T206 Honus Wagner.  As it turns out, there are millions of people who collect baseball cards and memorabilia or who have collected in their lives.  The Wall Street Journal reported in mid-2011 that there were 3.1 million millionaires in 2010.  And the same report showed over 40,000 in North America worth $30 million or more.  Some of these people are still collectors and there is no greater prize in sports collecting than being able to flaunt a T206 Wagner.

It was not very well covered in the media, but a T206 Honus Wagner from the famed Dreier collection just sold in early January 2012 through Legendary Auctions.  It was graded by PSA, one of the industry-recognized grading services and the grading brand of Collectors Universe, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT).  It was graded as a “4″ (on a scale of 1 to 10).  This famed T206 Wagner sold for an undisclosed sum.  After speaking with Doug Allen of Legendary, it was a privately negotiated transaction.  Mr. Allen would not disclose the buyer nor could we get an exact price, but he quoted, “The sale was for more than $1.5 million.”  An incredible sum indeed. 

Now there is another sample of the card for sale right now, for a hefty price.  Memory Lane has a “PSA 2″ graded T206 Wagner for sale today for a whopping $775,000.00.  It is even advertised on eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) as item #290661465614.  After speaking with J. P. Cohen of Memory Lane, this is card is on consignment and had previously been for sale at a higher price and the new price is said to be close to where offers came in for this exact card last year.

These two samples are not the only T206 Honus Wagner cards which have been sold in recent times.  A unique sample was a proof strip from the T206 set which actually belonged to Honus Wagner himself.  This was purchased at the Major League Baseball All-Star Auction by SCP Auctions (for an anonymous client) for the sum of $316,250 in 2010.  It was also SCP Auctions Inc. which brokered the record $2.8 million sale mentioned earlier of the prized Gretzky T206 Wagner.

Pep Boys has been the weakest performer in the auto parts retail business for the past year. It’s share price has fallen by more than -13% in the past 12 months, while competitors Autozone Inc. (NYSE: AZO), Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP), and O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) have risen by 38%, 17%, and 46%, respectively.

Under terms of the agreement, Pep Boys has a 45-day period in which it is free to seek other offers. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter.

Pep Boys has suspended its quarterly dividend and will file a quarterly report with the SEC, but has cancelled its conference call.

Some of the private equity firms which will be watching this offering closely are The Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) worth $7.4 billion, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (NYSE: KKR) worth $3.1 billion, American Capital, Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACAS) worth almost $2.5 billion, Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (NYSE: OZM) worth about $925 million, and Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE: FIG) worth about $665 million.  There is also the PowerShares Global Listed Private Equity (NYSE: PSP) ETF that Carlyle will ultimately become a part of when it comes public.

Carlyle is going to list on NASDAQ rather than on the NYSE and it is going to list under the ticker “CG” for its units.  No financial terms have been set for the deal.  The private equity giant has selected J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Credit Suisse as the listed book-runners for this IPO.

It is hard to admit that it was hard to ignore that the founders made a combined $413 million in 2011 ahead of this IPO.  The full amended filing is here.

One reason that private equity deals matter to the public right now is because of Mitt Romneys’s roots back to Bain and the current misconceptions about what private equity firms actually do.  While layoffs happen at most private equity buyout targets, many of those businesses were failing to generate profits and many may have eventually folded on their own.  Who are the largest clients of private equity firms?  Usually company and governmental pension funds.

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Facebook and its $100 billion valuation, although by far the largest on our list, is just one of many IPO potentials which will be in high demand. A new stock exchange, a host of online media outfits, a giant casino, big name retail, and private equity are all trying trying to have successful IPOs in 2012. You do not have to be an approved Second Market account holder or a venture capitalist to have a stake. Investors in 2012 can invest through business development outfits like GSV Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: GSVC), which owns shares of Facebook and Twitter, and Keating Capital, Inc. (NASDAQ: KIPO). These pre-IPO funds were not available ahead of many of the top 2011 IPOs. There is even the First Trust US IPO Index (NYSE: FPX) fund for investors looking at other investment strategies around IPO investing.

But other than those listed here, there are many other potential IPO candidates waiting in the wings. Among the private equity’s past giant leveraged buyouts are Univision and Clear Channel in media and TXU in power and electricity, which could all be potential IPO candidates if and when the market will accommodate them. Also, such companies as the fashion-deal site called Gilte Groupe, the “Angry Birds” video game maker Rovio, and others are also waiting in the wings with possible IPOs.

24/7 Wall St. has compiled a detailed review of each of the expected top IPOs for 2012. We have included details on the finances, backers, related entities, financial terms, the size of the IPO, and even the underwriting groups.

1.  BATS Global Markets, which was founded in 2005, first filed to become a public company in May of 2011. The company, which started as an alternative to the NYSE for equities trading in Europe and the U.S. is now the third largest equity exchange in America and operates the second largest pan-European multilateral trading facility. As such, this IPO is is a key one for investors of exchanges and trading platforms. BATS plans to raise up to $100 million through the offering. More than 90% of the company’s revenues come from trading U.S. equities. These days it is also a primary listing venue, meaning it can conduct IPOs. The global operator of stock and options markets plans to list its shares on its own exchange rather than the NYSE under the ticker BATS. The offering will have a dual-class share structure and the bankers are listed as Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Credit Suisse.

2.  Caesars Entertainment Corporation filed for its IPO in late 2011. This IPO is a holdover from the private equity buyout days when the company tried to go public but later retracted the offering. No exchange was specified nor was a ticker set in the filing. As of September 30, 2011, the company owned or operated 52 casinos in a dozen U.S. states and seven countries under the brand names of Caesars, Harrah’s and Horseshoe with a total gaming space of 3 million square feet and about 42,000 hotel rooms. Caesars Entertainment is what’s left of the massive $9.3 billion buyout by Apollo Global Management, LLC (NYSE: APO) and TPG in 2005. Sales in the first nine months of 2011 were more than $6.6 billion and operating income was was over $600 million, with a net loss after items of $467 million. Private equities and casino operators are paying close attention to this IPO. If the real size of the overall company is too large, perhaps the private equity firms may consider breaking the underlying companies up into separate offerings and utilize a ‘keiretsu’ approach under a network of companies.

Read Also: DJIA 2012 Gain of 12% Projected

3.  The Carlyle Group, L.P. filed to raise up to $100 million in securities in September 2011. As one of the best known names in the world of private equity IPO be one to watch, for investors and other private equity companies. No ticker and no exchange were designated in the filing, but the company named J.P. Morgan, Citi, and Credit Suisse as the lead underwriters. With more than $150 billion in assets under management, this private equity giant is a key player in real assets, global market strategies, and now also in funds of funds after buying a 60% equity interest in AlpInvest. With several private equity companies already publicly traded, Carlyle has been an IPO candidate group for years.

Why would a buyer look now?  It is currently priced in its stock at only 3.6-times free cash flow and that is the cheapest valuation out of retail stocks valued at more than $1 billion.  Its current expected P/E ratio is also under 8 and if it makes the consensus target for the year ahead it trades at barely 6-times expected earnings.

There are many problems here, some of which are the same that have faced GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME).  While GameStop is a video game play, it too has been bantered around as a potential private equity takeover name in the past with equally cheap valuations.

The real thorn in Best Buy’s side is that many buyers now go to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and the young crowd goes through Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and a myriad of other online retailers.  While Best Buy now offers online sales from it and other merchants, Amazon and others just got too big of a jump.
Bloomberg went on to note, “Best Buy can still enrich leveraged buyout firms after generating $2.44 billion in free cash in the past year, Telsey Advisory Group and Morningstar Inc. said. The $8.14 billion company could get at least $37 a share in a takeover, according to Thornburg Investment Management, 59 percent more than its price yesterday.”

Before you rush to call this one a private equity buyout target hopeful that will definitely come to fruition, Best Buy may have to face even more pain before the company would agree to a buyout.  After closing at $23.23 on Wednesday its shares are not even indicated higher.   Today’s reporting from elsewhere may be more posturing than real speculation. We would not even formally classify this as a rumor at this point.

JON C. OGG