Surprisingly, given recent tepid reports on job growth, consumers continue to expect steady, if slow, job increases. From the announcement:

In each of the past three months, a majority of consumers reported an improved economy, and twice as many expected further improvement rather than renewed declines in the year ahead. Most consumers, however, expected the gains to be modest. Confidence in the government’s economic policies remained relatively low, with 41% holding negative views.

Consumers’ view on current conditions rose by 5.2% month-over-month to 87.2, supported by lower prices for durable goods. A significant majority — 72% — of those surveyed said now is a good time to buy a new car.

The index reading on future conditions shows a less-optimistic 2.8% month-over-month gain to 74.3. The coming national elections and the forthcoming political battle over the country’s debt ceiling are the likely causes of the more temperate view of future conditions.

Paul Ausick

The EIA reported that US working stocks of natural gas totaled 2.74 trillion cubic feet, about 753 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average of 2 trillion cubic feet. Working gas in storage totaled 1.99 trillion cubic feet for the same period a year ago.

US natural gas stocks are about 38% higher than they were a year ago and about 38% higher than the 5-year average. Both figures are lower than they were a week ago.

Paul Ausick

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports the US carbon emissions have fallen by a total of 450 million metric tons in the past five, the largest decrease of any country in the world. The news is not all good though. In 2011, global carbon emissions totaled 31.6 billion metric tons, about 1 billion more than were emitted in 2010. The annual increase is considerably higher than the average 600 million metric tons emitted between 2006 and 2010.

In an interview with the Financial Times, the IEA attributes the drop in US emissions to “a combination of policy and technology – policy driving greater efficiency and technology making shale gas production viable.”

Maybe, but a slow economy in the US and throughout much of the globe also contributed to the decrease. The US industrial capacity utilization rate in April 2012 was just 76.1%, compared with a 30-year average of 80.3%. In 2009, at the depths of the recession, the utilization rate was just 66.8%.

And while natural gas production has boomed in the US, global crude production has not. The following chart from Professor James Hamilton’s Econbrowser blog indicates an expected growth path for oil production (red line) versus actual production (blue line) as a function of global GDP. By last year, production should have been near 100 million barrels/day, but barely managed 86.5 million barrels.

If the dip in the red line on the chart had not occurred, production would have had to reach about 105 million barrels/day to meet demand. Assuming that level of production could have been achieved it would not have mattered how much natural gas the US burned to generate electricity. Carbon emissions would very likely not have fallen if the world economy had not tanked.

Abundant, cheap natural gas in the US was more than offset by added coal burning (and carbon emissions) in China and India. To their credit, the Chinese are working on using alternative fuels like solar and wind to keep their carbon emissions in some kind of check. But if China resumes its 10%+ GDP growth path, all the natural gas in the US won’t keep carbon emissions under control.

Paul Ausick

The American Petroleum Institute had noted an inventory increase of a 1.5 million barrels last week. Crude prices, which have fallen sharply since the first of the month, were already lower before the EIA report and have continued to drop after the news came out. Much of that drop is due to a stronger dollar, in turn the result of the financial crisis in Europe and the threat that Greece will leave the monetary union.

Total gasoline inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels last week and are now in the lower limit of the five-year average range. Over the last four weeks, gasoline supplied has declined by -1.9% compared to the same period last year. Total motor gasoline supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels/day for the four weeks.

For the past week, crude imports averaged 8.6 million barrels/day, down by about 298,000 barrels/day from the previous week. Refineries were running at 88.1% of capacity, with daily input of nearly 15 million barrels/day, down by 57,000 barrels/day from the previous week.

According to gasbuddy.com, US gasoline prices average $3.688/gallon today, compared with a pump price of $3.729 a week ago. AAA’s Fuel Gauge Report shows today’s price at $3.6478, down from $3.728 a week ago. Pump prices continue to fall and the weekly drops are getting slightly larger. The approaching Memorial Day holiday often sees an uptick in pump prices, so this may be something to watch for this week.

WTI crude is down -1.97% today at $90.04 after falling below $90/barrel for the first time since October.

Paul Ausick

Earnings growth for the reporting retailers is up too, by 11.8%. Excluding Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) due to its size, Retail Metrics reckons that its 120 retailers will show profit growth of 12.2% in the first quarter. Including Walmart, profits will rise 13.8%.

The best profit growth is expected in the recreational sector, with Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) and Hibbett Sports Inc. (NASDAQ: HIBB) leading the way a 40%+ earnings gain. Home furnishing retailers are expected to post 40% gains, led by Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) and Williams-Sonoma Inc. (NYSE: WSM). Footwear retailers are tabbed to grow profits 31%, following huge gains at Brown Shoe Co. (NYSE: BWS) and Footlocker Inc. (NYSE: FL).

The worst performing sector is projected to be consumer electronics, with teen apparel stores the only other retailing sector expected to post overall losses. Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) and GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) are the big players here. Teen apparel retailers like Wet Seal Inc. (NASDAQ: WTSLA), Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: ANF) have struggled with same-store sales and revenues, as well as earnings.

Paul Ausick

What do Alaska, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Texas have in common? Oil, and lots of it compared with the rest of the country. And except for Texas, the four states also have small populations. Texas makes up for having a large population by having low wages when compared with other big states.

The title of this article is the answer J. Paul Getty is reported to have given to this question: “What’s the secret to success?” Still good advice.

Paul Ausick

The New York Times Economix blog posted the following chart from the IHS Global Insight report:

The median existing-home sales price also rose, up 10.1% year-over-year to $177,400. The March median price was up a revised 3.1% year-over-year, making this the first time that prices have risen for two months in a row since June-July of 2010. The NAR’s chief economist expects existing home prices to rise 1%-2% by the end of the year and to continue to improve in 2013.

There was also some mixed news for sellers:

Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 9.5 percent to 2.54 million existing homes available for sale, a seasonal increase which represents a 6.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 6.2-month supply in March. Listed inventory is 20.6 percent below a year ago when there was a 9.1-month supply; the record for unsold inventory was 4.04 million in July 2007.

With prices rising in some market, inventory is coming back, and sales of distressed properties declined slightly in April, from 29% of sales in March to 28% and 34% in April 2010. The housing market continues to inch its way out of a deep hole.

Paul Ausick

Of the top brands, the following came in after Apple:

2. International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM)

3. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG)

4. McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD)

5. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)

6. Coca-Cola Corporation (NYSE: KO)

7. Marlboro of Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO)

8. AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T)

9. Verizon Communications, Inc. (NYSE: VZ)

10. China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL)

11. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)

The ‘Top Riser” from 2011 to 2012 was Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) with a 74% rise

The full Millward Brown study on these brands gets broken down into segments such as industry, brand growth, geographic, and sectors.

JON C. OGG

In its new “Economic Outlook,” the OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan points out that, “The crisis in the euro zone remains the single biggest downside risk facing the global outlook.” He might have looked at projections from the International Monetary Fund and a number of prominent politicians and economists. If he had, he would have seen the obvious earlier.

The OECD’s forecasts for what Europe will likely do to the future of the worldwide economy are, at least, very detailed:

Private sector demand is expected to push activity up in the United States by 2.4% this year and by a further 2.6% in 2013. In Japan, GDP is expected to expand by 2% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013. Euro area GDP is forecast to contract by 0.1% this year, before picking up to 0.9% in 2013.

The OECD report has one glaring weakness, and it makes the forecasts from the agency deeply flawed. The data the OECD issues are for its member nations — much of the developed world. Nowhere in its data tables is any information about India, Russian, China or Brazil. The predictions that Greek real GDP will drop 5.3% this year, or that Iceland’s will rise 3.1%, do not mean anything when data from several of the world’s largest and most powerful economies are left out.

“With slow growth, high unemployment and limited room for manoeuvre regarding macroeconomic policy space, structural reforms are the short-run remedy to spur growth and boost confidence,” OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said during the launch of the report in Paris.

As long as the policy and reform issues in several nations, and China in particular, are not part of the formula, the formula and the accompanying forecasts are worth very little.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Some companies, like General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) have been expanding their US manufacturing capacity. And smaller firms, too, have been either expanding or building new capacity in the US. But numbers are a little hard to come by.

Consulting firm Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) has a report out with data that indicates that US firms are indeed moving back home. The firm surveyed 81 senior manufacturing executives at companies that average more than $2 billion in annual revenues. The report is available here.

According to those surveyed, 65% moved manufacturing operations in the past 2 years and 43% plan to move in the next 2 years, while 62% started new operations in the same period. The US led all countries in locations where plants were closed (60% of closings were in the US) and also led in locations to which operations are being moved, with 40% of plants moving to the US.

Western Europe was second in plant closings and China leads in new openings with 54% of new manufacturing plants going to China. The US is second in new plants, with 32% of new plants opening here. China is also expected to overtake Western Europe as the second largest market for US goods within three years.

The new construction in China reflects the belief that the country’s domestic demand will continue to expand and that being able to make things locally helps with meeting customer requirements and lowering costs. For manufacturers re-shoring to the US, the reasons are the same, especially for some durable goods makers.

How much the re-shoring movement means to the US economy depends to a large degree on whether the economy can create enough jobs to buy all those goods. The key is jobs and they are still scarce.

Paul Ausick