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Yesterday’s surprise move from India that sent gold through the roof to almost $1,085.00 per ounce was a game changing event in gold. Many technical analysts and chartists were looking for, or at least hoping for, a further consolidation in the price of the shiny yellow stuff. Yet now that appears to not be the case. This has broad ramifications for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and for Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX); and it also of course will help push top-line and bottom line improvements to the likes of two of the huge players of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) and for Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG). This morning we received an audio-visual slide show technical analysis presentation from one of our affiliates INO. This was by Adam Hewison, who we have noted was making a big gold call for a move to $1,100 and then $1,200 or even higher back when gold prices were consolidating and well under the $1,000 mark.
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Posts related to ‘Technical Analysis’
Next Week’s Top 10 Earnings on Deck (CHK, F, KFT, MA, CSCO, CMCSA, QCOM, BRK-A, SIRI, VG)
Earnings season may be winding down, but next week still has some very important companies that are economic indicators in and of themselves or are key stocks that have broad customer and investor bases. Picking only ten companies leaves many key stocks out, but we have some here which will appeal to most investors and traders. Among next week’s top earnings are Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK), Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA), QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM), and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B).
We also have the biggest cult stocks of all with SIRIUS Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) and Vonage Holdings Corp. (NYSE: VG) reporting next week. We have offered some color on each stock along with chart data where relevant, along with Thomson Reuters consensus estimates.
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Has the S&P 500 Index Peaked? (SPY)
The SPDRs (NYSE: SPY) is perhaps the most liquid of all ETF products in the world as it tracks the benchmark S&P 500 Index. One of our affiliates has just posed the very important and developing question… Has the S&P 500 peaked? There is even a detailed audio/video presentation here showing this, and his take is that the S&P is nearing a very critical apex, or what we would call a flag or pennant. What we see as the biggest risk to the S&P and stock market overall is that the dollar just cannot fall indefinitely, even if it can still go lower through time.
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Technician Call: Oil to $90+, But Questions Seasonality (USO, GLD, OIL, OIH)
Now that Gold has busted $1,000.00 and headed up almost every day since, the next target commodity is oil and the question is if black gold can mirror the performance of yellow gold. One of our affiliates has a quick detailed technical analysis audio/video presentation that shows the possibility of much higher oil prices. The United States Oil (NYSE: USO) is harder to use as a measure to directly track oil tick for tick, because unlike the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) directly investing in gold bullion, as the USO tries to track oil prices by rolling futures contracts. The iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (NYSE: OIL) also uses crude oil futures contract (plus the T-Bill rate of interest that could be earned) to track oil prices.
While using the price of oil as a tracking measure is hard to do outside of directly trading oil, the Oil Services HOLDRs (NYSE: OIH) is one of the best way to play the big oil services companies and it often tracks broader oil prices more than the large integrated oil players.
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The $1,000 Gold Call Returns (GLD, GDX, UGL, ABX, HMY)
The commodities call is back on. It isn’t $100 oil, but it is for $1,000.00 gold. We have two well respected market technicians calling for higher gold prices. At 10:12 AM EST, Spot Gold was trading at $982.34, a change of +$7.78 or +0.80%. Simultaneously, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) was up 0.4% at $96.55. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), which is an ETF full of the top gold mining stocks, is up over 1.5% at $43.15 and has been all over the place this morning. The Ultra Gold ProShares (NYSE: UGL), which tries to track twice the dollar performance of gold bullion, was up 0.75% at $36.95 on fairly thin volume. Even Barrick Cold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), one of the largest miners and producers, was up 0.8% at $38.12 on active trading. Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMY) is also up about 2.6% at $10.27, and this is despite J.P. Morgan downgrading this stock this morning to Hold from Buy.
One of our affiliates, INO.com, has an audio/video presentation by Adam Hewison that shows data back to 2001 and using current data to discuss the possibilities of a break-out coming up in the price of spot gold. This notes how yesterday was a large day and is back up to the resistance line. He still thinks that the $1,000.00 per ounce mark continues to be the big hurdle but that is possible to see even before the end of the week.
We also saw how Dennis Gartman yesterday was on CNBC talking about gold rallying more in foreign currency markets than the U.S. and he noted how something was going on there… particularly as gold went up the same day the bond market went up. It seems to Gartman that the vote is a bet on gold but one against the economy. What is funny is that Gartman thinks that everyone should have exposure to gold, but 2% to 3% of their portfolio or 5% in extreme cases.
And there is more to this yet, particularly as you go into 2010…
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Wal-Mart At Critical Chart Levels Into Earnings (WMT, RTH)
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) was supposed to be the big winner of the Great Recession as the giant trade-down retail play for America. Interestingly enough, the peak of the stock was almost 9-months ago long, before the last wave of major pain during the first two months of 2009. And it has underperformed greatly since the March lows. The S&P has rallied 50% from lows, yet today Wal-Mart is not even up 10% in the same apples-to-apples period. Tomorrow morning will mark the company’s Q2-2010 earnings report, but traders better take this chart into consideration as there is a major inflection point nearing. Based on this, we’d also be looking for a potential large move in the Retail HOLDRs (NYSE: RTH) ETF as well.
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Chart Events Forming in Key Tech Stocks (MSFT, AMZN, RIMM, ORCL, QCOM)
It is normal to see pullbacks. The problem is that most market pullbacks in the last five months have been rare or short-lived since the near-depression levels of early March. But it has also been hard to not notice the stalling out of some key tech stocks, and today we are seeing some critical long-term moving average violations as a result. We have looked as Stockcharts.com for these reviews and links through to show the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL), and QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) have all hit our longer-term initial screens for the day based 50-day moving averages.
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Significant Moving Average Tests For DJIA and S&P 500 (DIA, SPY, SDS)
We won’t go as far as to say that the DJIA and the S&P 500 are directly correlated even after the recent rebalance. However, there is one common notion on today’s weakness that has brought up yet another serious chart alert. Both the DJIA and S&P 500 are down and the alerts came up regarding the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is being confirmed in both key market ETF’s in the charts of the DIAMONDS Trust (NYSE: DIA) and the SPDRs (NYSE: SPY).
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The Gartman Call: Shorting Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A, BRK-B)
If you follow charts, money-flows, and ways to play macro-trends, you probably know who Dennis Gartman is. We know that you know who Warren Buffett is, and Gartman’s call as a short selling candidate is none other than Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B).
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Giving Ag, Potash, and Fertilizers A Second Chance (MON, POT, MOS, IPI, AGU, CF, MOO)
Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE: POT), Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) and Intrepid Potash,Inc. (NYSE: IPI) are all recovering at least some from yesterday’s major drops. While Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) are lower again, the declines are minuscule compared to yesterday’s reaction to the news. Even the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO) is trading up marginally. These stocks were crushed yesterday by word of lower demand and lower prices over at K+S in Europe.
Chart Alert: Wal-Mart (WMT, TGT, COST)
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is supposed to be the retail winner in a depression or recession as more and more consumers are forced to shop at the world’s largest retailer whether they want to or not. There is no arguing about the notion that consumers can save money if they buy at Wal-Mart. But several key issues have been happening here, and the company is at risk of having one of the worst charts of all current Dow Jones Industrial Average members.
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News Escalates Technical Event in Solar Stocks (FCEL, STP, ESLR, SPWRA, YGE, TAN, FSLR)
We recently have noticed how more and more solar companies are seeing big gains on news, particularly in those which have recently raised cash in a seondary offering. We are starting to see further chart and technical events in FuelCell Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL), Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP), Evergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR), SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWRA), and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YGE) as the 200-day or 50-day moving averages are now in the rear-view mirror. Where this gets interesting is that the solar ETF, Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (NYSE: TAN), has crossed above its 200-day moving average in recent days as shares are at $10.93 and that 200-day moving average is $10.15.
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Does Green Mountain Stay #1 in IBD 100? (GMCR)
After looking through last weekend’s print version of Investor Business Daily’s “IBD 100″ it was almost shocking on the surface to see that Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) landed the #1 spot on the highly followed “IBD 100.” After all, Barron’s simultaneously published a story called “BITTER BREW: Green Mountain May Burn Investors.” Then, even the Motley Fool posted “Barron’s Doesn’t Know Beans About Good Coffee.” What you are witnessing is a battleground stock.
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DJIA Challenging 200-Day Moving Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been trading above its 50-day moving average since late-March. But the 200-day moving average is a key metric for long-term traders. The 200-day moving average for the DJIA is 8,765.69. We are also seeing the same reading in the S&P 500 Index, with the exception that the S&P 500 Index has now actually moved well above its 200-day moving average of 926.89.
Below are the two charts from Stockcharts.com:
VIX Breaks 30, Kills VIX ETF/ETN Trades (VXX, VXZ)
The CBOE Volatility Index, or the beloved ‘VIX’ or ‘Fear Index,’ has reached a level not seen since September, 2008. While the low yesterday appears to be 30.0, we have not seen this number below 30.0 since September 19, 2008. In October we saw a high of 89.53 and this was around 50 even at the market lows in March. It seems there was some price sensitivity to it as the index values came lower and lower. The drop in the VIX is also having some key impacts on the ETF’s (actually ETN’s) iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX) and the iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXZ).
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Craziest Market Call Yet: 1,000 DJIA (DIA)
John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital made perhaps one of the ballsiest market calls or one of the craziest market calls yet in the entire bear market or in most peoples’ careers if they are 50-years-old or younger. He came on CNBC on Thursday and he stated a target of 1,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yes, that was a “1″ as in a 1,000 call. If you were buying the DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1 (NYSE: DIA) ETF on his call if he is right, you’d get to pay $10.00 per share.
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Defensive Stocks Refuse To Participate In Rally (PEP, KO, TAP, KFT, CAG, CPB, HRL, MCD, MO, PG, CL, MRK, JNJ)
Investors flock to defensive stocks in times of trouble and and when they worry, assuming they look to stay in the market when they are worried. But if the trend here continues, this may be one of the worst times for defensive stocks compared to the overall market. Our universe of 13 large-cap go-to defensive stocks looks awful in relative performance and it looks like only 1 stock of the 13 has actually outperformed the overall market.
Kraft Foods Inc. (NYSE: KFT), ConAgra Foods, Inc. (NYSE: CAG), and Hormel Foods Corp. (NYSE: HRL) have performed close to the overall markets, but that is almost it. Forget about Campbell Soup Co. (NYSE: CPB) as that has been the worst of the lot. Pepsico, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) and The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) are up double digits from recent lows, but are way behind the market index readings. Even the high and mighty McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) has greatly underperformed.
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Is Crocs Becoming The New Bull Market Proxy? (CROX)
It is true that the most speculative or most battered stocks often rise the most during the initial turnaround and recovery, and to call the latest rally since the March lows a mere recovery would be an understatement of the year. But while the S&P has recovered 35% from lows and the NASDAQ has recovered by almost 40% from lows, shares of Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) have exploded from their lows. With shares up 14% today at $3.71, CROCs has risen well over 200% from the March lows and is up over 100% in less than one-month.
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If Citigroup Gets Back Over $5.00….
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) was believed by many to be on the verge of death just six short weeks ago. But alas, the shorting and the selling doesn’t go on forever even if some feel this latest move is not going to hold. There had been an ongoing question at one point earlier this year and even in November 2008 about what would happen if Citi shares fell under the $5.00 threshold based upon the marginability of the stock and the ability for many large mutual funds to hold the stock at that point. Citi even got as low as $0.97. But now we have a monster rally in the financial stocks, and suddenly there is a completely different question… What happens if and when Citi breaks over $5.00?
The Slow Death of the VIX
The CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX or the ‘fear index,’ has been rolling over and dying because of the rally we have seen over the last five-week period. The DJIA is currently back at 8,000 and the S&P 500 is almost flirting with 850 again. Whether or not the VIX is dead will depend on how stocks act from here on out, but we are currently looking like we are going to have set a consecutive gain of 5 weeks in a row if the levels all close today at these current levels. Here is the graphic from Stockcharts.com:
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Today’s top tickerspy Indexes Home Furnishing R... +14.1% Ethanol and Biofu... +5.1% Electronics Retai... +2.1% Diabetes Stocks +2.0% Memory Chip Stock... +2.0% 
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