Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit a new high this morning ahead of next week’s earnings.  The new value is almost at $400 billion.  The new high is $428.50 for now and the consensus price target from Thomson Reuters is now above $509.00.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) is continuing with the trade-down economy and the secular growth of the dollar store (actually sub-$10) stores.  The new high is $85.58 and the consensus price target is $86.27 from Thomson Reuters.  Dollar Tree is now worth more than $10 billion in market capitalization.

Ecolab Inc. (NYSE: ECL) is worth almost $14 billion now, and the new high today of $60.45 compares to a Thomson Reuters consensus price target of $61.56.

Read Also: Top 2012 Stock Picks From Major Gurus

McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) gave solid same-store sales forecast and recently juiced up its dividend.  The new high is $101.87 and the market cap is nearing $104 billion.

Monster Beverage Corporation (NASDAQ: MNST) recently announced a stock split and shares hit a new high this morning but have promptly backed off by close to 2%.  The new high is $101.67 and the consensus analyst target is close to $105.00.  It is hard to imagine, but Monster now has a market value of almost $8.7 billion.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) keeps doing it.  A new high of $100.75 was put in today after a prior 52-week high of $99.44.  Its market value now eclipses $46 billion.

Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA) is up at stratosphere levels now for its healthier sandwich and destination approach.  The new high is $151.93 and the consensus price target from Thomson Reuters is $146.68.  Its market cap is now almost $4.5 billion.

Read Also: DJIA Projected 12% Gains to 13,678 in 2012

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) has proven us very wrong on how high the valuation can go back up to.  The new high is $48.15 and the consensus price target from Thomson Reuters is just under $48.00 and the market cap is now more than $35 billion.

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) worth over $5 billion, AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE: AZO) worth over $13 billion, and O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) worth over $10 billion… These all hit record high prices in their stocks on Wednesday. With a record age car fleet in America of more than 10 years, car parts stores and suppliers sure are going to have a lot of car owners to sell parts to that are long past the warranty and insurance coverage.

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JON C. OGG

After taking a look at the “GLD” chart the concerns are growing.  Since its major move at the end of 2008 there had not been a single time that the SPDR Gold Trust shares had violated the key 200-day moving average.  If you look at the mining ETF via the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX), the gold bulls may argue that the mining sector violated the 200-day moving average on multiple occasions and still traded higher!  Some technicians may watch other metrics on the GLD for long-term trends but many will fear that this means that the monstrous run higher at a minimum cannot recover at the same pace.  Other technicians may argue that gold has peaked outright, just like Dennis Gartman has raised concern about recently.

It is at least somewhat interesting that Goldman Sachs recently lowered the ratings of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) as well as Randgold Resources Limited (NASDAQ: GOLD) this morning, both were downgraded to “Sell” from an already cautious “Neutral” rating. AngloGold is somehow up almost 1% at $41.52 today and Rangold is down 0.3% at $101.50.  Meanwhile, Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) was recently raised to “Sector Outperform” from “Sector Perform” by Scotia Capital.

What is so confusing for many gold bugs and investors alike is that the news headlines would make you think that gold has everything going for it.  Iran flexing its muscle… The Euro Zone debt crisis… The possibility that the Euro disappears or is altered… Sovereign debt credit rating downgrades… China’s central bank buying gold… Uncertainty… and more.  It is the rise of the U.S. Dollar again that is capping gold’s positive aspects.  Besides that, gold reached the point that many market participants just cannot afford to use the metal for anything now. 

If you go back to the “GLD” as the measurement for most spot gold investors today, that would be $157.36 as to where the 200-day moving average is now versus $154.90 after a 0.2% drop today.  The “GLD” chart below from stockcharts.com shows a 3-year history for our readers.

JON C. OGG

We asked our technical affiliate Candlestick Forum for a chart reading on the crazy silver… The Devil’s Metal.  “Silver has slowly moved back up and just ran into resistance at the 50 day moving average. A Doji, followed by bearish confirmation at the 50 day moving average, indicates a wave three to the downside could take silver prices down into the $22 area if the run goes to the most extreme band. The 20 day moving average at the $33.25 level will be an important support level that needs to be breached for prices to move to much lower levels.”

While that call is only an “if, then” and offers only the most extreme band, the current silver price needs to be watched closely because there may be much larger downside price risks in the devil’s metal if it cannot recover from the current levels. Watch these moving averages…

Our own take is rather simple.  Gold is trying to find its footing again but it has an identity crisis.  It is not trading every day like a reserve currency now as international investors are choosing to buy dollars again on days when they get scared about sovereign risks in Europe.  Other days it trades like an equity-based asset class no different from cyclical stocks.  We expect a resolution over the next week or so to determine where gold is ultimately going.

Tracking the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE) is easy for the currency relationship between the Euro and the U.S. Dollar.  As far as the future of reserve currencies, our poll this week is now over but the indication is that the Euro in some form or fashion is toast.  Only 14% of our respondents answered “the Euro is here to stay as it is today” and the rest of the responses can be seen here.

If the Euro slides, it is going to be harder for gold to maintain that reserve currency status that it was exhibiting before.  It is hard to imagine that the dollar may be king again.

JON C. OGG

iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX) is up 5.6% at $56.40 and the iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXZ) is up 2.9% at $75.33.  These ETF prices are both higher than at the peak of selling you see on the actual VIX index chart because of how they trade with futures.

Technicians and technical analysts try to not look at anything other than the charts and the internal market statistics.  Fundamental investors are smart to at least take note of what the charts are saying, but they try to look at what the economic and company fundamentals are going to be in the next quarter to next year.  Right now the market is at a point where the technicians are in charge on the downside when the fundamentalists cannot agree whether or not we are entering (or have already entered) the next (or double dip) recession.

As you will see, here is the current VIX chart going back three years to show the S&P 500 SPDR (NYSE: SPY) after that.

JON C. OGG

August was very painful, even if the markets recovered from the lows. The DJIA was down about 4.5% and the S&P 500 fell by almost 5.7%; the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell by 6.4%.  The Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that September is more often than not a jinxed month for stocks as traditionally the worst month on the calendar for stocks.

On average since 1950, there is a 0.9% drop in the DJIA.  The worst September was in the weak economy of 2002, when the DJIA fell almost 12.5%.  The U.S. was about to attack Iraq and was still recovering from the economic turmoil after the terror attacks of the prior year.  Oil had gone from under $20 a barrel to nearly $30 and gold had moved up from $280 per ounce to $320 per ounce.  The good news, if there is good news… Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that pre-election Septembers are down “only” 0.6%.

The best September for the DJIA is said to be back in 1954, but the September weakness barometer was way off last year in 2010 and it was also off in 2009.  Isn’t it October that investors worry about the big market crashes?

However, in pre-election years, such as this one, the Dow industrial average is down only 0.6 percent in the average September.  So, what is in store for 2011′s September?  The DJIA closed August out at 11,613.53 and the DJIA was under 11,250 on Friday morning after the dismal employment data was released.  Does that mean that the bad news is already priced in or does that mean that the pain is only just beginning?

So, what is store for DJIA stocks?  Here is a quick hit on some of the key pivots for the DJIA (NYSE: DIA) today looking into the rest of September.

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) just boosted its dividend this week, a commitment that earnings should remain steady and high for years and years.  While the market has grown to expect dividend hikes, we were not as certain that a dividend hike would come.   This now puts pressure for AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) to also hike its dividend later this year even if it does face a multi-billion break-up fee if that DOJ-blocked acquisition of T-Mobile stays a blocked deal.

There is a slang term in technical trading and it is not exactly fit for those with soft ears.  That is the “Gap & Crap” pattern.  Just like it sounds, the market gaps up much higher and then sells off immediately.  You see this over and over where the big gap-up openings are met with immediate selling.  All things being said, these ‘gap and crap’ moves after big sell-offs trap more running bulls than Pampalona, Spain.

The fact that this is happening on a summer Friday only exaggerates the situation.  The reasons are too numerous to count as to why the selling is happening.  Some key issues are as follows:

• The debt ceiling and infighting in Washington froze the business climate;
• U.S. business regulation is killing incentive;
• The stock market is now officially in correction territory and the 2011 gains are gone;
• Europe is total denial about the bank and sovereign debt situation;
• The PIIGS are going to be gutted;
• Interest rates even went negative momentarily this week;
• Currencies continue to be devalued globally;
• No U.S. government help is currently desired;
• Economic data points to slower and slower growth, or worse;
• Speaking of worse, the calls for a double-dip recession are growing louder and louder;
• Global austerity creates lower business spending;
• China and India remain muted and are not accommodative to growth today;
• Credit Suisse has just lowered its target to 1,350 from 1,450 for this year on the S&P 500 Index;
• Bailouts aren’t working.

Before you hit the panic button entirely, let’s consider at least some of the positive conditions as follows:

• Corporate balance sheets are stronger than ever;Dividends are on the rise;
• Interest rates are extremely favorable for those that can take advantage of it;
• Employment held up better than expected;
• Japan is still trying to recover;
• China/India ‘slowdown’ is still well above global trends of developed nations;
• Japan and Switzerland are trying to prevent cash bubbles forming further;
• The consensus remains for slower growth rather than outright recession;
• 2012 is an election year.

Admittedly, both of these ‘strengths’ and ‘weaknesses’ are only a portion of the key issues out there.  Thursday was a huge blow-up for the markets and the damage was seen early on Friday in overseas markets.  This is just one of those situations where the worst does not seem to have been seen yet.  Hopefully, that is not the case but that is how it feels.

Predicting the day-in and day-out moves is a game that very few can successfully do through time.  Since starting this piece the DJIA had gone from up triple-digits and down well into the red.  Then the recovery came and the market is fighting for a red-line or green-line for up or down. The market could close up or down today, but it is currently Europe that is acting as the biggest drag and the Europeans are going to have to capitulate before many investors will dip their toes back in a value mongers again.

JON C. OGG

Google has failed to deliver on some acquisitions.  The move to mobile has so far not yielded the significant returns for the company that many have hoped, although we will be the first to admit that the endgame in mobile ads might be years away.  And all the hoopla around Android?  Google effectively has made that available for free.  Google is now also without what Wall Street referred to as “adult supervision.”

We still believe that there is a perception problem with the company.  Are you investing in the world’s leading search engine?  Or are you investing a search company that has a string of clumped-together units, along with a ventures unit that invests in renewable energies and other proactive “good for life efforts?”

The latest comScore data showed a slight uptick in U.S. search share.  Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) has the powerful Yahoo! Japan (or part of it).  The fight with China might not matter so much in today’s dollars because the ad market is still developing there where so many of the hundreds of millions of internet users are not attractive to advertisers since they are poor.  That leaves Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) with a lock in the Chinese markey.  And now we have Yandex N. V. (NASDAQ: YNDX) public, although what was touted in its hot IPO as “The Google of Russia” also just hit a post-IPO low.  Maybe being the search leader in Russia isn’t so great after all.

Our take was that Google should not be using so much of the company’s cash for philanthropic efforts, but when we conducted a survey on that we were shocked to find that the results were fairly split on that front.

Maybe it is just that Google is now changing the look of its home page more often than many people change their underwear.  And maybe it is just in sympathy with Apple as its chart just had a technical violation today.

It is very possible that the current slowdown in the economic data is starting to translate to lower ad rates in some segments.  We have not yet seen that happen in any meaningful amount in any sector yet, but there is always that mystery about how Google charges ad rates versus how much its out to AdSense clients.  We have seen that analysts have lowered their earnings estimates in recent weeks for the quarters ahead, but the lowering of estimates has not been massive.

The good news is that Google is actually back above the $500.00 mark here shortly before the closing bell.  The bad news is that shares are still down 0.4% at $500.92 and it is down on a day when the broad market is up.  The NASDAQ market is down by roughly the same amount.

Google has traded in a range of $433.63 to $642.96 in the last 52-weeks.  There is no immediate risk that Google is looking at its 52-week lows.  Still, all caveats considered, Google’s stock is one that looks like itwants to go lower.  A close under $500 would be worse than the $496.67 low today on a psychological basis but there is nothing magical about that $500 mark as far as the chart analysis goes.  The last pivot level was closer to $490 and then around $470 after that.

We have tried to cover what some of the forces are now.  Maybe it is just the market and maybe it is  something else.  Whatever it is, it is a technical event playing out as the chart from Stockcharts.com shows:

JON C. OGG

(20 MAY – 26 MAY) Ticker

Weekly Price Change (%)

Close Price 26May11

Close Price 20May11

Market Cap ($Mil)

9.8

76.04

69.24

9694.0

8.0

5.91

5.47

17680.9

8.0

150.19

139.06

10736.0

7.4

50.66

47.18

46354.6

7.3

263.75

245.90

13844.5

7.2

296.61

276.60

12519.9

7.2

20.78

19.38

15979.1

7.1

72.55

67.76

30694.2

7.1

63.68

59.48

18696.7

6.4

15.04

14.13

1658.3

Dendreon Corporation (NASDAQ: DNDN) was a call that we are highlighting due to its timing rather than due solely to its impact.  On Friday came new coverage from ThinkEquity with a “Buy” rating and a $50.00 price target.  What makes this key is that this comes ahead of earnings and the firm cited better than expected growth in Provenge sales.  This is actually our second time this month that Dendreon was in the top analyst calls of the week.

Infospace Inc. (NASDAQ: INSP) was one we were surprised to see pop this week after beating earnings expectations and slightly raising guidance.  If there is one of the old great dot-com bubble stocks that deflated and became dead money it is Infospace.  Then came a call this week from S&P Equity Research and the ratings agency raised the stock rating to “Buy” and gave a price target objective of $11.00 per share.  This is above the consensus average target and the high for the year is $10.91.  This stock was at $8.78 before earnings.  S&P’s key note, “we note that the core search business showed sequential improvement with the addition of a number of a new distribution partners.”  Our food for thought here for a company trades close to book value… maybe Infospace can catch some of the Groupon mojo like we highlighted in other names.

Molycorp, Inc. (NYSE: MCP) may be peaking.  This last week brought a downgrade from Gabelli & Co., although the downgrade did not really take much wind out of the stock.  What is important here is that at some point more analysts will likely be forced to join in as the valuation is something we have cited as going from excessive to one of crack and meth.  Molycorp actually closed up $5.00 this week, but the downgrade may have put a cap on it after that Monday rally. 

SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) was one where we issued our own outlook of what to expect with some warnings after the stock hit $2.00 early in the week.  It was only about 12-hours later that SIRIUS XM was given a downgrade on valuation by Lazard.  This is ahead of its earnings report and the downgrade was followed by a call from Wunderlich advising clients not to chase SIRIUS XM shares.  What made this stand out even more is that SIRIUS XM shares totally ignored the calls.  Yep, what seems to be one of the top calls turned out to be a dud as shares closed at $1.985 after having hit $2.00 for a 52-week high on 3 different days this week versus a $1.93 close the prior Friday. 

Vical Inc. (NASDAQ: VICL) was impossible to not have on the list of the gutsiest and greatest analyst calls of the week.  Canaccord Genuity issued a “Buy” rating but not just any ordinary “Buy” rating.  The firm is looking for shares to rise about 146% from its pre-call price.  The research call created a 10% pop, and we have another fund manager who tipped us off on this one with more positive insight ahead through 2011.  Full details of the Vical call with background data are at BioHealthInvestor.com.

The technical analysis call of the week goes to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.  While it did not mention the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) nor the ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSE: SIVR) exchange-traded products, the report should have as these will be the direct winners if it comes true… The firm sees a technical breakout calling for not just $50 silver… Bank of America Merrill Lynch gave the technical reasons for why it sees $80 silver, and gave chart updates as well. 

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG

A report this week from Bank of America Merrill Lynch is calling for the possibility of $80.00 silver.  Be advised that this is a technical research piece more than a fundamental forecast.  Sometimes technicals match up with fundamentals, and sometimes they become runaway… Our interest is how it would impact the silver stocks out there as well as how it would impact some of the key ETF products.  What is interesting is that this comes on the heels of the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) filing to sell up to almost $2.2 billion in new trust shares to buy more silver as demand remains high.  Silver at $80 would probably generate a move in the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) to $78.00 or more if the move is fully up to $80.00 per ounce.  

We would also look for a $78-ish handle on the ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSE: SIVR) exchange-traded product.  Imagine what $80.00 silver would do for the double leverage ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE: AGQ) exchange-traded product.  Due to intraday and future contract tracking, the number is harder to peg but that could easily be over $700.00 per share if that occurs.  Pan American was just raised to Buy with a $48 target this week at Jefferies.

This would also be a boom for Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE: SLW), although it is down 1.8% at $41.27 today and its 52-week trading range is $17.00 to $47.60.  We saw one call where Scotia raised its target to $58.00 in Silver Wheaton.  Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS) is also lower today by about 1.7% at $36.35 versus a 52-week trading range of $22.21 to $43.06.

Before you accuse us of being bubble chasers in silver, there are other crazy calls out there.  We started highlighting $50 silver a couple of weeks ago.  The ultimate commodity call was yesterday from T. Boone Pickens on oil.  He is the perma-bull and expects prices to run higher from here.  But he gave one ominous figure with a large outlier scenario… Pickens noted that if Saudi Arabia were to somehow go off-line due to regional unrest and strife as was seen in Egypt and elsewhere in northern Africa and the Middle East then you could see $300 oil.  BofA/ML noted:

• “Silver is a key 2011 trade idea within our continuation of the secular bull market
  for commodities theme.”
• Looking for a retest of the 1980 highs near $49/$50
• With the sharp downside reversal off this high, the risk is for a
  near-term buying climax for silver.
• Longer-term pattern is bullish, shorter-term backing and filling is not ruled out… but a buying opportunity.
• Additional support is in the mid to low $30s.

First and foremost, if BofA/ML is correct then this will be a huge win for anything tied to silver.  It will also be a huge loss for the public.  If the $80 call is right, Ben Bernanke won’t be able to hide behind any “transitory” comments in defining inflationary pressure.  You can see the BofA/ML chart below.  There is an old market saying that “higher prices ultimately take care of higher prices.”  That will ultimately be the case in silver, gold and oil.  The question is at what price on each?

It is also sad to bring this up. If you really do see $80.00 per ounce in silver, then you’ll have some making the calls that silver should hit $100.  Remember the old Goldman Sachs $200 Super-Spike call in oil?  That was full of suppositions, but it is the one call that most investors remember the most.  If you see $80 silver, you can imagine what the price of gold would be… $2,000? $2,500?  $3,000?… the guess is yours.

You can join our free daily email distribution list to hear more about analyst upgrades and downgrades, top day trader and active trader alerts, dividend trends, news on Buffett and other investment gurus, IPOs, secondary offerings, private equity, and more.

JON C. OGG