Maria Bartoromo asked him if this is still a bear market, to which Prechter said, “Oh definitely.”  He then noted how we have matched the January highs and people are too optimistic.  He said this is “Not a new bull market…” and went on to show how the sentiment is so optimistic now with recent weeks’ surveys showing that only 23% are bearish and how investors are buying twice as man call options than put options.

As far  as Prechter is concerned, the current answer is safety in the safest instruments and at least the dollar is in your favor.. “and put it in the safest institutions.”  Lastly, he noted that over the next year or two stock prices will be lower and hopefully you’ll see good bargains and hopefully an opportunity to buy.  He thinks that both stocks and oil are putting in double tops….

Permabulls and Permabears are always right.  You just have widen out your time frame.  That full Prechter video is here.  It will be for you to decide, and keep in mind that these sort of guys almost never get giddy or really excited, but he just didn’t seem as certain the last time he was on CNBC when he said the equivalent of “This could be your last chance sell with the DJIA above 10,000.”

JON C. OGG

We usually use Bollinger Bands or other rolling indicators in stock analysis, but Adam was using Donchian Channels which he noted has been tested since the 1940’s.  Based on channels and a series of lower highs and lower lows, Adam is calling for more weakness.  In fact, 17 days is what he said based on a 40-day basis.
Many investors try to use the gold miner ETFs such as  Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) and the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) but when we look for long-term gold trends we tend to look directly at the ETF and exchange-traded products that track the price movement of gold.  In gold miners there are often just too many variables like labor and geopolitical risks that can arise… as well as crucial environmental issues, disasters, and accidents which can all create mine shut-downs.

What is interesting in this analysis from Adam Hewison is that the most recent high is lower than a recent high Adam pointed to.  But it is actually higher than the most recent high put in.  Now gold is trying to make a stand at $1,100.00 per ounce after seeing steady declines.

Here we use the SPDR Gold Trust Shares (NYSE: GLD) and notice that the 50-day moving average has been a magnet for the last week and we are seeing what may be a failure of the moving average.  The GLD is at $107.95 today and the 50-day moving average today is $108.42.  We are not looking for anything sinister here for a breakdown to the $100.96 for today’s 200-day moving average, but we also can’t help but notice tat the 100-day moving average of $108.14 is coming into play.

With rumors of China or another large buyer buying, this call set-up looks interesting.  By our take there is downside risk to $106 and maybe $105 in the near-term and it seems that even a breakout on geopolitical news would be signaling resistance at each $0.50 to $1.00 incremental handle to the upside.  This puts a more risk than reward if we just read the charts.

JON C. OGG

The good news is that you can plan or protect yourself.  On Monday I did an article at OptionsZone.com showing some of the basics with actual trade examples behind hedging against a crash or even getting greedy and betting on a crash.  These include real options trades from DIAMONDS Trust (NYSE: DIA), SPDRs (NYSE: SPY), and PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ).

This time the problems may not come from the United States after years and years of credit bubbles, over-inflated real estate assets, crazy loans and securitizations, and no real risk monitoring.  There are dozens of issues right now.  China has put the brakes on its bank lending.  The Eurozone is now dealing with major sovereign debt and credit issues from Greece, Spain, and Portugal; and throw in Ireland and Italy to boot.  China and US relations are strained.  The issues in the U.s. are ballooning deficit spending coupled with a massive $1.9 trillion debt limit increase, then coupled with policies that are another huge risk to the economy.  Breaking up the banks could have ongoing consequences, and on.  And to boot, stocks decoupled from real forward valuations because the return of a bull market went from last March until the start of January. The list goes on and on.

We have seen the caution from Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave calling for the next wave of the bear market, and both he and George Soros called gold a bubble.  There we followed the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).  And then also on Monday we saw Dennis Gartman, of The Gartman Letter, calling for far worse than a 10% correction.

If you believe that Greece is going down or will get saved, I noted yesterday at VSInvestor.com how the ADR of National Bank of Greece SA (NYSE: NBG) has become the new trader proxy for betting on Greece and the emerging Euro plays.

There is a rule in trading and investing.  That is that hoping and praying, at least alone, are two absolutely awful strategies.  You can be bullish and still protect yourself.  You can be bearish and capitalize off this.  Regardless, there are ways to prepare just in case.

JON C. OGG

As far as what to look at, he noted that Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) may not get hit, and maybe the restaurants.  We have already seen the S&P 500 Index via the SDPR (NYSE: SPY) get hit by 8.1% from the highs.  It did not exactly sound like Dennis Gartman just meant a 10% correction and a bit more… He’s looking for much more.

Gartman also noted that this will start doing damage to tech very soon…. that plays right into the downside of the PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ) that Adam Hewison was hitting.

Yesterday I gave crash-proofing and crash-profiteering trades on OptionsZone.com, which is something that will scale with each corresponding lower strike price as long as the market doesn’t make too far of a move and in a manner that is too fast.

Have a good trading day, whether you are bullish or bearish.  Gartman’s discussion from CNBC last night should be visible here in full.

We always have a caveat here on pure technicians who only use charts.  It is the same warning on pure fundamentalists who do not heed charts.  These calls can be right many times, and when they are not they are often very wrong at the turn.  Our own take here is that the fundamentals in the markets have changed significantly in recent weeks.  The charts are getting weaker and at least those charts have busted out of being in any continued upward-momentum in the last 10 trading days.  The headlines out of Washington D.C. will all play into the fundamentals in the days and weeks ahead, as will what develops in Europe in Asia.

JON C. OGG

It is normal to see divergence out there among bank stocks, particularly as fundamental changes come into play after any sector shocks take place.  But JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is supposed to be the axe of the banking sector.  It is supposed to have the cleanest balance sheet of the money center banks, with the tightest of credit standards, the least amount of post-TARP government reviews, and is supposed to have the best customer base.  Yet, a chart preview using longer-term absolutes in the 50-day and 200-day moving averages actually shows that Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) appears as though this is a new flavor of the day for traders and investors.

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) has also demonstrated that it at least has more durability on the charts using the major moving averages than Citigroup (NYSE: C).  The Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF) and Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) ETF products have also held up better than JPMorgan Chase. We have the JPMorgan chart below from StockCharts.com and then a table below showing the key moving averages of each bank and ETF as a comparison.

A review of the 200-day moving average as a critical juncture is one that has only been an issue for a few trading days, but it also brings trading more in-line with the days before the bank and financial crisis hit.  The stockcharts.com longer-term chart review highlights this. No trader should use one chart or one metric as a determination in technical analysis, or so we believe as being more fundamental rather than technical.  Still, this is hard to not pay attention to.

As far as what has changed fundamentally from just a few weeks ago, the list is numerous.  The Obama-bank tax, the Volcker-Rule looks closer to a new version of Glass-Steagall reinstatement, a trading-halt may be mandated or installed on a lesser basis down the road as an earnings boost, the bonus attack persists even at the banks that have repaid their TARP obligations, the tax structures appear to be on track for a higher reset in 2011, China has halted lending, and many key nations have seen their sovereign  debt ratings under question and scrutiny even more in recent weeks.  On top of that, the U.S deficit and borrowing are hitting obscene  levels.

The biggest fear here might be one of JPMorgan Chase losing its premier-status to traders and investors in favor of alternative money-center banks.  As far as calling for further break-down in the sector, that notion is still one for debate and the outcome is still up for grabs.

JON C. OGG

Adam Hewison, one of our affiliates at INO, just yesterday gave a technology stocks call that could imply another 10% to 20% downside for the NASDAQ after a major trendline was crossed.  On that notion, we’d be looking at the PowerShares QQQ (NASDAQ: QQQQ).  Be advised, we will be challenging this notion over the weekend.  The fundamentals matter more to us than charts alone, but this time they are both lining up for what would be lower stock prices.

Then yesterday we took out 1,085.00 on the S&P 500 Index.  For this, we will look solely at the SDPRs (NYSE: SPY).  The DJIA also busted through the 50-day moving average with a vengeance, as did the S&P.  For this we’d look at the DIAMONDS Trust (NYSE: DIA).

• DJIA: 10,428.05 on December 31… 10,067.33 on January 29
• S&P500: 1,115.10 on December 31… 1,073.87 on January 29
• NASDAQ: 2,269.15 on December 31… 2,147.35 on January 29

Earlier this week came reports from Robert Prechter, the head of Elliott Wave, calling for this recent top to be the third peak of the long-term bear market.  He even said this is the last time you may get to sell stocks with the DJIA in quintuple-digits and he even went as far as to say that the lows of March 9, 2009 would likely be taken out.  Both Prechter and George Soros also called a bubble in Gold, and in that we’d be looking at the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) for weakness.

The good news is that we have a hard time getting all the way back to last March 9, 2009 lows even in a double-dip recession in most scenarios.  A rapid dry-up of business combined with an even more harsh stance from the administration can change anything, but what was seen in the first 70 days of March 2009 should under most scenarios be something that was very unique.  Turning the banks into utilities will not be good for the financial markets.

While we don’t subscribe to last year’s lows from March 9 being taken out in the near-term, it is obvious that the chances of a double-dip recession have increased considerably in the last week.

You are invited to join our free daily email distribution list to hear about top analyst upgrades and downgrades, IPOs and secondary offerings, ongoing day trader and options trader alerts, stock and market rumors, Buffett and guru investor news, M&A and more.

JON C. OGG
JANUARY 29, 2010

Sure, FEB-2010 and later contract expiration dates were active considering the moves, but the real action is in the front month JAN-2010 CALL and PUT contracts.  None of these strike prices was even dictated by any single block of contracts traded.  It was mainly just solid buying of contracts in various block sizes both small and large(r).  This is almost always indicative of retail and active traders looking for exposure rather than making long-term bets on the share price.

The options trading was through the roof today for JAN-2010 CALLS & PUTS listed below with contract volume and open interest:

CALL$    Volume    OpInt
$160.00    1,141    13,570
$165.00    185    13,260
$170.00    1,121    20,068
$175.00    404    6,233
$180.00    856    15,305
$185.00    2,699    17,720
$190.00    6,356    28,685
$195.00    4,671    32,814
$200.00    14,803    59,114
$210.00    34,383    61,780
$220.00    39,611    57,537
$230.00    22,341    30,696
$240.00    5,143    31,691
$250.00    2,140    38,046
$260.00    1,036    12,455
$270.00    1,375    5,533
$280.00    1,855    3,930
TOTAL:    140,120    448,437

PUT$    Volume    OpInt
$160.00    932    12,633
$165.00    815    8,781
$170.00    1,778    15,187
$175.00    4,392    26,024
$180.00    3,772    37,786
$185.00    6,707    39,711
$190.00    9,214    43,137
$195.00    8,248    20,914
$200.00    15,376    29,403
$210.00    12,833    13,574
$220.00    3,450    3,126
$230.00    669    1,593
TOTAL:    68,186    251,869

Apple traded over 23 million shares today if you include the after-hours session.  Average volume is around 18 million shares.  This was also the most active trading day in the stock since the days during the December 4 to December 9 period when Apple was trying to figure out if was going to see a major technical break-down or a snap-back recovery.

But this stock options trading is over the top.  The 140,000+ contracts in the front month CALLS listed at only these strike prices already noted is equal to 14 million shares on a fully leveraged basis.  That 448,000+ listed in the open interest is indicative of 44.8 million shares on a fully leveraged basis.  The PUTS are indicative of bets on over 6.8 million shares today and over 25 million shares in the open interest on a fully leveraged basis.

It is not possible to know all the set-ups in these, and it is even more impossible to just add up the volume today to get a figure of bets on over 20 million shares traded and almost 70 million combined in the open interest.  Sure, many are one-way directional speculative bets.  But many are also volatility trades, protection for gains, speculative upside bets, covered call writing and more.  Either way, this is still getting into overly speculative ground on stock options versus the stock trading.

This won’t alone mark a top in the share price, at least not knowingly.  A top will have to be marked by either excessive valuations or by momentum investors carrying a trend so far that the fundamentals cannot keep up.  So far, Apple has always been able to keep and over-delivering report every quarter.  And now its chart is back to strong enough that many technicians will be tracking support and resistance pivots on every single day.  Apple may be keeping its share price high with no stock splits to keep the speculators from running a share price too much in either direction.  The problem with options volume this high is that it acts as shadow trading and as much in theory as shadow volatility.

You can sign up and join our free email list for daily emails about analyst upgrades and downgrades and top day trading stock alerts.  We also cover key IPOs and secondary offerings, M&A, new ETF strategies, Warren Buffett news, major changes to short interest and other key developments.

JON C. OGG

The 50-day moving average is within about 2% to 5% of the current prices of most of these shares.  This has been a key pivot point for some time.  The issue that makes the 50-day moving average closer to coming up is that if you go back 50 trading sessions, the stocks were all at their pinnacles in share prices.  The 50-day moving averages are descending, while the 200-day moving averages are rising.  And the prices from 45 to 50 days ago were all considerably higher than today’s prices.  We have provided links to the stockchart.com charts for these where needed.  We have also made an attempt to predict what the key moving averages will come down to in the middle of next week.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is at $15.23; its 50-day moving average is $15.74 and its 200-day moving average is $13.64.  Just two days ago that 50-day moving average was $15.86 and the 200-day moving average was $13.54.  October 14, 2009 is 50 trading sessions ago, and its closing bell price was $18.58 versus $15.23 today.  October 15 was $18.09, and October 16 was $17.25.  October 19 was $17.15 and October 20 was $17.00.  That means that if prices remain stagnant here then the 50-day moving average is going to be closer to $15.65 on Wednesday and perhaps under $15.60 by the official start of the new year on January 4, 2010.  If you look at the chart on BofA, you will see how this has been a critical juncture for BofA.  This leaves less than a 3% move next week before a key technical test would come into play.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is at $41.77; its 50-day moving average is $42.86, and its 200-day moving average is $38.18.  Two days ago that 50-day moving average was $43.05 and the 200-day moving average was $37.90.  The stock traded at $47.16 on both October 14 and October 15, meaning that its moving average will be sharply lower as well.  By next Wednesday, that means that this 50-day moving average (assuming static prices today) would be about $42.66, only about 2% above the current share price.  While JPMorgan is the safest of the big money center banks, its 50-day moving average has been more of an overhang above the price rather than an actual resistance level in recent weeks.

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is at $26.92; its 50-day moving average is $27.69, and its 200-day moving average is $24.86.  Two days ago that 50-day moving average was $27.83 and its 200-day moving average was $24.27.  On October 14, the shares were at $31.28 and were at $31.32 on October 15.  Its 50-day moving average is also descending and will be closer to $27.53 in the middle of next week if prices remain static here.  Again, that leaves only about 2% before the moving average would be tested.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) is still in a slightly different boat at $164.00.  Its 50-day moving average is 171.70, and its 200-day moving average is $153.40.  Two days ago that 50-day moving average was $172.74 and its 200-day moving average was $152.71.  On October 14 the price was at the peak at $191.87 and the October 15 price was $188.23.  That 50-day moving average is likely to be $1.00 less by the middle of next week, which would leave only about 3.5% before that 50-day would come up for a test. It was only early November that the 50-day moving average was tested, back when the stock was tying to go from $175 to $180 when financial shares were higher.

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) is not really one of the bogeys that is up for a test here with shares at $3.32 today.  Its 200-day moving average is above the price at $3.71 and the 50-day is $4.04.  Two days ago that 200-day was listed as $3.69 and the 50-day moving average was $4.04.

The Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF) is the most representative chart in this entire argument of whether the 50-day moving average is worth paying attention to.  The XLF is even closer than its major constituents with a share price of $14.49 today.  The 50-day moving average is $14.55 and the 200-day moving average is $12.83. The four top stocks in that ETF account for about 38% of the whole ETF.  It has used the 50-day moving average as a key pivot point (and resistance) from the end of October, all through November, and into December.  The pinnacle was also 50-days ago at $15.67 and it was at $15.53 the following day.  By next Wednesday that 50-day moving average may be $14.50, making this test come into play immediately if the prices remain static.  In short, the XLF is already with 0.5% of being at a critical test of that 50-day moving average.

We do not usually conduct technical analysis on the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) because of its daily resets and because it has tracking errors, yet you can see how it has used the 50-day moving average as a key pivot point from October through November and into December.  At $75.68 today, its 50-day moving average is $75.72… The 200-day is $60.23. Just two days ago that was $76.30 on the 50-day and $59.71 on the the 200-day.  On October 14, the ETF share price was at $93.89, so its 50-day declining moving average is up for grabs soon as well.  Could this triple leverage ETF make the event come up immediately????  We also looked at the inverse ETF, the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ) shows a different picture.  At $19.10, its 50-day is $20.10 and it has been under that line for four trading sessions now.  This one has even more tracking error, so this should only be used for conjecture as a support line here versus a resistance line on the others.

It can also be seen in some of these stocks that in the last six weeks a series of lower lows and lower highs has been in place.  It is hard to imagine a significant technical event changing the market on the week between Christmas and New Years when so many participants are not in.  Unfortunately, that looks like it is going to be the case.

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JON C. OGG

We do not usually conduct technical analysis on the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: FAS) because of its daily resets, yet you can see how it has used the 50-day moving average as a key pivot point from October through November and into December.  At $74.06 its 50-day moving average is $76.30 and the 200-day moving average is $59.71.  So shares are within about 3% of that key moving average, and this used to move 3% in one hour when the volatility was strong.   The Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLF) used the 50-day moving average as a key pivot point (and resistance) from the end of October, all through November, and into December.  When you consider the recent knocking of the sector by Meredith Whitney, these moving averages as real issues start to come more front and center.

What is interesting in our review is that while the 50-day moving average is within about 3% to 5% of the current price, the chart set-up requires a faster review because this will come up front and center as soon as next week even if the shares suddenly see little price change.  This is because the trend of the 50-day moving average is generally heading lower while the 200-day moving average is heading higher.  We have shown the stockchart.com chart for the FAS to show the stickiness here on these charts of late.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is at $41.98; its 50-day moving average is $43.05, and its 200-day moving average is $37.90  Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is at $15.34; its 50-day moving average is $15.86, and its 200-day moving average is $13.54.  Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) is at $26.74; its 50-day moving average is $27.83, and its 200-day moving average is $24.27.

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) is in a slightly different boat at $165.59.  Its 50-day moving average is 172.74, and its 200-day moving average is $152.71.  It was only early November that the 50-day moving average was tested, back when the stock was tying to go from $175 to $180 when financial shares were higher.  Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) is now in an entirely different boat at $3.38 after its record and disappointing share offering last week.  At $3.38 its 200-day moving average is above the price and is listed as $3.69, while the 50-day moving average is $4.11.

To make matters worse, even the 20-day moving averages are all intertwined and in-play as well, and that is in a period where the daily volatility on these major banks and financial institutions is much lower.  Some of these are in a narrowing triangle or flag pattern as well, which is often used as a prelude to increased volatility in the near future.   And this is happening in the silly season when trading volume starts to dry up over the holidays and when market participation is generally light.   Stay tuned.

JON C. OGG
DECEMBER 22, 2009

On top of tracking the key ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).  We also wanted to take a look at the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) and its three key components of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), and Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM).  Even the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is worth noting here.

The first issue is the chart and what the technical patterns are saying.  Adam Hewison, a well-known technician and an affiliate of ours at INO, has provided a quick audio-video chart analysis.  His take is that gold has entered the silly season now that we are outside of the bands and on the backside of December 15.

We wanted to take our own look at this on the charts, and it seems very much a similar case.  After looking at the charts going back a year, gold could go back down to $1,050.00 or even closer to $1,000.00 per ounce before any long-term uptrend on the chart is violated.  Near-term is entirely different.  The bullish pattern has definitely been violated, and frankly this is what we’d refer to as a technical No Man’s Land.

Then there is the fundamental issue about gold and the ties to the Dollar and to interest rates.  It is true that the United States has been an outright violator of trust with our new deficit path and violations of the old debt ceiling.  We have billions, if not trillions, of dollars that may come into the money supply over the coming years.  The Chinese and the Middle East obviously want a hedge on protecting themselves from a weakening dollar.  The saving grace for the US greenback is Europe and the E.U. via the Euro.  Greece is in trouble with the ratings agencies.  Ireland, Spain, Austria, and other locales in Eastern Europe are potentially on the ropes.  The Brits are not a part of the Euro, but the Pound Sterling is at risk if it can’t quell the recent fears brought in by the ratings agencies.  Not everyone can hide in commodities, so any further developments in the E.U. would effectively take away the risk that the U.S. Dollar would further lose its position as the world’s reserve currency.

Then there is the notion of what will happen to US interest rates.  As of yesterday, the belief is that a Fed Funds hike will come in the summer of 2010.  That is too late if you take a snapshot today, but it is still now more likely.  A personal take is that this generally ramps faster and faster if strength or less weakness can remain.  The US Dollar Index may not be out of trouble entirely, but any rise in rates in the U.S. should offer at least a temporary floor to the US Dollar.  When was the last time you saw an interest rate cycle change and end on a “one and done” move by central banks?  If the US Dollar strengthens after a multi-year slide south, that will take away one of the major catalysts for gold bulls.

The recent pullback in gold has been seen in the gold miners and producers.  We usually take a look at the components inside the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) to get a feel for the move between spot gold prices and the producers of gold.  That ETF is now down 18% from recent highs if you count the 5% slide today.  Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) is the largest component, Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) is the second largest component, and Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM) is the third largest component.  The total ETF weighting for those three alone is almost 34%.  Here is the percentage price drop seen in each from recent highs: Barrick down almost 20%, Goldcorp down 18%, and Newmont down almost 16%.  Keep in mind that this is after large losses today.

Then came the launch of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) in November.  This has been actively traded as traders look for leveraged bets on gold, and surprisingly it is only down about 16% from its post-launch highs.  ETFs of this cult caliber would be like having the second or third solar ETF or alternative energy ETF.  They may not mark a top, but they rarely come at any market or sector bottom.

There is a huge wild card for the gold sector which has yet to gather any steam.  Whether you like the CFTC or the administration of today, the reality is that its new directive is likely to be in force until the end of 2012 and it will not be even up for debate as to whether any real regime change in the U.S. is possible until after Congress’ mid-term elections.  That being said, imagine if the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is deemed too large by regulators similar to what we have seen in energy ETF products, or even worse that it is an outright direct influence on the price of gold…. and therefor a direct cause of inflation.  Suddenly, there could be billions and billions worth of dollars in gold bullion hitting the market as the GLD is one of the top holders of gold in the world.  For the gold bulls, the good news is that this is not an alarm being sounded elsewhere by other market observers and it may never even come up as an issue.

Unfortunately this still leaves a question mark for beyond what is just the rest of 2009.  If you rate what economists, traders, and analysts all say on interviews and television report now compared to a month ago, that field is now looking just as split.  Dennis Gartman even sounded mixed in his latest call.  A final bit of insight here is that when these choppy patterns go into the technical no man’s land, it requires being right every day to be profitable.  What seems obvious now is that the straight line to $1,300.00 or $1,400.00 in gold is no longer one that is put in as a “definitely until told otherwise” status.

JON C. OGG