Posts related to ‘The Week’

The Unusual Suspects (AA, MOS, YUM, CVC, CIT, LOCM, RVSN, WFC)

bull-and-bear-image2It is the weekend and that means a review of last week’s unusual suspects and a review for key stocks in the week ahead.  Technically earnings season gets its first earnings report from a DJIA component in ACLOA Inc. (NYSE: AA) this week, as well as earnings from The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) and from Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE: YUM).  Other key stocks to watch will be Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC), CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) on the ropes, the real or unreal takeover chances for Local.com Corp. (NASDAQ: LOCM), and the unusual trading in Radvision Ltd. (NASDAQ: RVSN) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC).  We have provided more detailed information and analysis on each story below.
Read More »

The Unusual Suspects (GT, CTB, S, DT, LOPE, BBY, ORCL, PALM, GLD, CSX, UNP, RGR)

bull-and-bear-image2We have a whole host of stocks and sectors to watch throughout this coming week.  We have Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) and Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. (NYSE: CTB) to watch on some tariff news.  Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) will likely be a key mover on Monday on potential merger reports.  Grand Canyon Education Inc. (NASDAQ: LOPE) is supposed to have a secondary offering early this week.  Earnings are coming from Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL), Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) and others.  $1,000.00 gold is going to be key for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD).  CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), and Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc. (NYSE: RGR) are all likely suspects to watch for catch-up trading based on news outside of those companies.  More details are provided on each of these.  Stay tuned this week.
Read More »

The Unusual Suspects (ATVI, AIG, ALTH, TREE, GOOG, PAY, EXPO, WIRE, AXYS)

bull-and-bear-image2We have almost a whole new slate of stocks in this week’s round of “The Unusual Suspects” for key stocks traders need to keep an eye on for the week ahead.  Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) was singled out by Barron’s.  We ran a bit noting $100 as a possible target for American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), and let’s just say that it was widely read.  Allos Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTH) has a key FDA ruling this coming week.  Tree.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: TREE) may have its model crushed by none other than Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG).  And troubled VeriFone Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PAY) has earnings due this coming week, right at a key stock inflection point.  Exponent Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPO) and Encore Wire Corp. (NASDAQ: WIRE) are S&P index additions as new entrants.  Axsys Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: AXYS) also has a shareholder proxy date this week, and some think a higher buyout price may be in the works.  We have run key details and previews for all of these to watch in the coming week.

Read More »

The Unusual Suspects (MELA, FSLR, GENZ, GERN, JEC, SHLD, SIRI, CRM, SPPI)

bull-and-bear-imageIt’s the weekend, and that brings about the review of “the unusual suspects” for strange activity or for being key stocks under review for the week ahead.  There are some old hat names here and some new unknown names that will be key.  We have Electro-Optical Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELA), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Geron Corp. (NASDAQ: GERN), Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. (NYSE: JEC), Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: SHLD), SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI), Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM), and Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPPI) all under review for the week ahead.
Read More »

Winning Stocks on a Down Week (ADY, BCRX, DDRX, DGI, FAZ, LORL, RHT, WX)

This was a week of profit taking and a probable realization that a move of 30% and more from the lows in March was probably a bit much in the face of only consistent “less-bad” economic data.  But as every optimist says, “There is always a bull market somewhere.”  We saw a drop of  about -3.6% to 8,268.64, while the S&P 500 Index slid by -4.% to 882.88.  The NASDAQ was the ‘better’ of the losers with a drop of -3.4% to 1,680.14.  But there are many standout stocks, and some of the key big movers and winners this week were American Dairy Inc. (NYSE: ADY), Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BCRX), Diedrich Coffee Inc. (NASDAQ: DDRX), DigitalGlobe, Inc. (NYSE: DGI), Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ), Loral Space & Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: LORL), Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) and WuXi PharmaTech Inc. (NYSE: WX).

Believe it or not, some of these are up exponentially off of the lows.  One is up 30-fold from the end of March, and amazingly the best winners were not in tech or biotech.  We have provided a weekly synopsis and the reason for their from the lows.
Read More »

Banks: Losing $100 Billion In One Quarter (C)(JPM)(WFC)(BAC)(GS)(MS)(UBS)(CS)(DB)

Water_liliesThe conventional wisdom was that 2008 would be the worst year for bank losses in years, but that it would be the bottom. The damage of mortgage-backed securities has moved into the past. What else could be left?

The figures for the last quarter of 2008, being reported now, show that 2009 could be astonishingly bad for big banks. The dozen largest banks in the world could easily lose a combined $100 billion. The problems causing that will certainly cascade into this year.

Read More »

This Week’s BioHealth & Biotech Top Stories

We saw another exciting week full of news for key developments in drug stocks, biotech stocks, medical device stocks, and other companies involved in various aspects of health care and medicine.  Below are some of the stock tickers we covered over at BioHealthInvestor.com this week:

  • STOCK TICKERS: ABT, BSX, MDT, JNJ, SRDX, ANPI, BAYRY, MAXY, AMGN, CRA, INGN, CELG, MRK, SNY, GSK, AKRX, ARYX

This week we saw another FDA Approval in stents as Abbott’s (NYSE: ABT) XIENCE drug-eluting coronary stent was approved for marketing.  While this is causing a resurgence in stents, this space is about to become highly competitive (stocks covered: ABT, BSX, MDT, JNJ, SRDX, ANPI).  Introgen (NASDAQ: INGN) has a new twist for head and neck cancer… give it a cold, literally.  Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) actually won out as a competitor’s bone marrow disease trials failed to meet expectations.  Merck (NYSE: MRK) was an FDA decision winner as it gets to keep its lead on the cervical cancer vaccine market in the U.S. tied up for at least 6-months longer than it was anticipated (stocks covered: MRK, SNY, GSK).

This may be a tiny company, but a patent was awarded in bone marrow and stem cell transplants.  While a biotech turned over its hemophelia treatments to a larger company, hemophelia treatments may be better off now (stocks covered: BAYRY, MAXY, AMGN).  Vaccine awards are going to keep sales up at one small vaccine maker.  One Alzheimer’s Disease treatment that originally had high hopes has bitten the dust.  P&G walked away from a partner this week, killing a tiny biotech (stocks covered: PG, ARYX).

And on the front for reviews:

  • Do you remember all the hype and hopes for synthetic blood?  This looks like the last player has gone on to greener pastures.
  • What is a good investment that has backed way off from highs that should show steady growth in the China health care sector?  We evaluated one potential company for this.

These issues are more stock issues than anything else:

Have a happy and safe LONG Fourth of July weekend.  I think there is a new treatment on the market for burnt hand trauma from fireworks, but the FDA has it on hold until next February.

Jon C. Ogg
July 4, 2008

This Week’s Top 10 Issues For Next Week

The week ended on a really sour note after the DJIA broke under that 12,000 mark and then proceeded to close under 11,900.  Here is a list of ten key individual issues we think traders will want to know to take into next week.

The oil patch just keeps going.  With Israel threatening to bomb Iran and conducting exercises, what do you expect?  Over in the oil patch, you had T. Boone Pickens trying to tell Congress that oil speculators aren’t driving oil prices and that more regulation is a waste of time.  Many oil companies are feeling pain from their oil hedges.  Goldman Sachs lifted many names in the patch and lifted its oil targets.  A weird options trade went off in SandRidge Energy (NYSE: SD), one thatwas odd enough to make you think something is brewing there.

Alternative Energy… Solar tax credits may have been canceledbut there is still good news.  A huge win came this week over atEvergreen Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: ESLR) after the company announced two neworders totaling $600 million and putting the backlog up huge. We saw very unusual volume in A-Power Energy Generation Systems (NASDAQ: APWR).

52-WEEK LOWS GALORE…. Friday’s 52-week low stocks was a huge list with more than 400 hitting intraday lows on that 52-week list. (WTR, BMY, CELL, DDS, EK, EXPE, GCI, GE, HST, NOK, PFE, Q, VLO, WY, WGO)
Thurday’s 52-Week Lows
Wednesday’s 52-Week Lows

Next week we have a Mini Tech Earnings Season for ORCL, RHT, RIMM, MU, & PALM

Are you as tired of Microsoft-Yahoo! as we are?  Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) is considering a huge reorganization while Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) said it isn’t shopping for other web players.

IPO’s may be in trouble
.  We saw two crummy performances this week.

Short sellers are targeting financials (C, LEH, AIG, WB, WM, ABK, JPM)

Satellite radio troubles brewing? Sirius & XM were both killed on a downgrade at Goldman Sachs.

Rumors persist….. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) is said to be considering a $1 Billion cash infusion.

Trouble in electronics land?  If you saw the earnings report and the important verbiage out of Philip Schoonover this week, you’d think Circuit City (NYSE: CC) thinks it should go it alone.  Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) beat earnings projections and gave strong guidance for a weak economy, yet shares slid.

Have a great weekend!
-The 247WallSt.com team

The Week’s Top BioHealth Issues For Next Week (PFE, TEVA, CRA, IVGN, CMED, ANPI, ISRG, VVUS, CELG)

One key stock to watch next week is Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE). While it has been in the land of the boring forever, watchers are looking to see if it will put in a rival bid over the $4.6 Billion Daiichi Sankyo bid from Japan for a majority stake in India’s number one generic drug maker Ranbaxy.

Speaking of Generics, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NASDAQ: TEVA) was weak all week after Mylan Inc. (NYSE: MYL) has signed a pact with India’s NATCO Pharma Ltd. to produce a generic version of Teva’s multiple sclerosis treatment called Copaxone.  As this  was an old favorite buy in generic investor hearts you can imagine this will be covered frequently this next week since the stock is now 15% off of its highs and closer to a 52-week low.

We know that Invitrogen (NASDAQ: IVGN) is buying Applera’s Applied Biosystems (NYSE: ABI) unit.  But what about Celera Group (NYSE: CRA)?  Traders may be looking for the "next merger candidate"and that might fit logically.

China Medical Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: CMED) went up big on earnings news this last week and continued to rise even by the end of the week further than the initial reaction.  Technicians may have this one on a momentum screen now.

Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: ANPI) may be of interest after it showed some positive stent data, and its launch of QUILL may all help the perceptions next week on this small molecule company.

It’s always good to know what short sellers are targeting.  The last short selling report showed a huge drop off in the short interest compared to prior reports in large cap biotech stocks like Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), and others.  FULL SHORT INTEREST DETAILS HERE.

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) was defended by William Blair this last week and shares managed to rally during the week after that news was out.  After seeing a 3-month low traders may focus here next week as a short bottom fishing attempt.

Vivus Inc. (NASDAQ: VVUS) is hanging tough after a huge gap up in its QNEXA treatment for obesity and for diabetics.  Shares barely closed down on the week, rather impressive for a small cap with a history of not holding gains.  Traders will definitely be keeping their radar eyes on this one for opportunities to buy it up or short it.

Lastly, there was a lot of news on the rheumatoid arthritis front with many companies delivering solid data for drug studies in the debilitating area from companies such as Abbott Laboratories, Array, Eli Lilly, Incyte, J&J, Schering-Plough, and Roche.  Much of the news seems overlooked by the end of a summer week, so watch these for next week.  Solid Developments for Rheumatoid Arthritis (ABT, ARRY, LLY, INCY, JNJ, SGP, RHHBY)

Jon C. Ogg
June 14, 2008

Major Buybacks This Week (CCOI, FOSL, HIG, KALU, OSG, URI, UTX)

As we have pointed out over and over, it appears that buyback announcements are on the decline in a serious way as far as "new buyback plans" being announced.  Ultimately we believe that the buyback paces coming to a crawl is for several factors, with the main issues being the need of cash and the embedded insurance policy this gives companies who want to shore up their capital during a weak economy.  We did not count the smaller buyback announcements, but these are the larger ones we saw  this week (alphabetically rather than chronologically):

Cogent Communication (NASDAQ: CCOI) completed its prior plan and added another $50 million to its buyback machine.  The market cap is about $682 million.

Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) announced that it would repurchase some 2 million shares, or roughly 3% of its shares outstanding.

Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG) added $1 Billion to its prior plan, and its market cap is nearly $23 Billion.

Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (NASDAQ: KALU) is one of the old ones that would be easy to overlook or forget about.  But the company raised its dividend and announced a $75 million share repurchase program.  This is only about 1.1 to 1.2 million shares, but when you compare it to the $1.3 Billion market cap and the 390,000 share average daily volume it large on a percentage basis. 

Overseas Shipholding (NYSE: OSG) replaced its prior buyback plan with a $250 million stock buyback announcement, and it raised its dividend too.  This represents more than 3 million shares at current prices and compares to about a $2.4 Billion market cap.

The big kahuna buyback came from United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI) announced it was doing a swap and buyback of some 27.16 million shares.  This represents close to 31% of its entire outstanding share count.

United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) was perhaps the largest buyback from the largest company this week.  The company announced it would buy back up to 60 million shares as a replacement to its prior plan.  Based on a near-$70 price, this implies a sum of up to $4.2 Billion if prices remained static.  This has roughly 973 million shares outstanding.

Jon C. Ogg
June 13, 2008

The Week’s Top Biotech Movers For Next Week (TRCA, ACOR, ISPH, ONCY, PCYC, SQNM, IDEV, LGND, AUXL)

Out of the daily movers this last week, many of the top winners and losers were from news in many of the smaller biotech stocks.  We prepared a list of the winners and sinners from our daily review at BioHealthInvestor.com and gave a summary regarding the moves on each.  It is becoming more obvious that many small and mid-sized biotechs are going to be gobbled up by European or Asian biotech and pharma companies seeking the dollar-discount right now.

For starters, we ran a summary of the key moving pieces out of the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO).  No review would be complete without it. Stocks covered: (AVAN, PFE, CELG, IMCL, DNA)

ACQUISITION NEWS
Tercica, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRCA) bites the dust as its own company the latest small cap biotech received a huge premium acquisition from a foreign buyer, with a 104% premium.  FULL DETAILS

MAJOR WINNERS
Acorda Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ACOR) had a great week after it announced positive data from a second Phase III study of its Fampridine-SR for patients’ walking abilities in MS patients.  FULL DETAILS

Inspire Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ISPH) surged after reaching its primary endpoint in Phase III trial of Denufosol for Cystic Fibrosis.  FULL DETAILS

Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (NASDAQ: ONCY) gained after the Canadian biotech’s positive Phase II studies of intravenous REOLYSIN® in patients with sarcomas metastatic to the lung.  FULL DETAILS

Pharmacyclics Inc. (NASDAQ: PCYC) gained after its Phase 1/2 trial of motexafin gadolinium plus antibody targeted radiation therapy showed a high complete response rate in patients with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.  FULL DETAILS

Sequenom Inc. (NASDAQ: SQNM) surged after it announced its progress with a non-invasive technology that detects Down syndrome. FULL DETAILS

MAJOR LOSERS
Indevus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: IDEV) tanked after an FDA request should cause a two-year delay in approving NEBIDO.  FULL DETAILS

MIXED REVIEW
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: LGND) is one we gave a full pro and con review covering the upside of the stock and the negative side of the stock.  FULL DETAILS

Auxilium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AUXL) was a strange stock this week.  The company reported great news but shares slid before the market figured out it had misinterpreted news in the company.  INITIAL DETAILS

Jon C. Ogg
June 7, 2008

The Week of Stock Buybacks (DELL, KDE, IBM, ACL, WU, IAAC, HBIO, PMRY, EDGW, KNXA, TRF, MT, CLDN, HGRD, FUL, PNSN)

This was an active week in share repurchases, and many key stocks announced new buyback plans or gave updates to their buyback plans.  Below are the key buybacks 247WallSt.com reviewed:

  • Kenexa (Nasdaq: KNXA) announced on November 8, 2007 that it authorized the repurchase of up to 2 million shares of the company’s common stock, and it has already completed the repurchase of over 1 million shares since the approval of the repurchase program.  It only has about 25.5 million shares outstanding.
  • Edgewater Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: EDGW) announced that its Board of Directors authorized the purchase of up to $5.0 million of the Company’s common stock; approximate market cap is $87 million.
  • Harvard Bioscience, Inc. (NASDAQ: HBIO) has authorized the repurchase of up to $10 million of its common stock over the next 24 months; shares rose 5% Friday and its market cap is $130 million.
  • Pomeroy IT Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:PMRY) authorized a somewhat unusual program to repurchase up to $5 millionof its outstanding common stock.  In addition, the Board adopted awritten trading plan under Rule 10b5-1 of the Act to facilitate therepurchase of its common stock. Rule 10b5-1 allows the Company topurchase its shares at times when the Company would not ordinarily bein the market because of the Company’s trading policies or thepossession of material non-public information. Pomeroy’s market cap is$86 million.
  • Alcon, Inc. (NYSE:ACL) approved a new share repurchase program that allows for the purchase of up to $1.1 billionof shares of outstanding common stock targeted over a twelve monthperiod.  The $1.1 billion share repurchase program provides for a purchase of shares from the company’s majority shareholder,Nestle, S.A. Specifically at a rate of three shares fromNestle for every share acquired by the company in the market. This new program is in addition to thecompany’s existing repurchase program, under which, as of December 5,2007, the company has remaining authorization to repurchase up to 2.8million shares. It is anticipated that the new repurchase program willcommence in the first quarter of 2008.
  • The Western Union Company (NYSE: WU) authorized an additional $1 billionfor purchases of its common stock through 2009, and this is in additionto the approximately $300 million remaining under previous sharerepurchase authorization. With a $1.3 Billion total plan, it has $17Billion market cap.
  • International Assets Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:IAAC) renewed the Company’sshare repurchase authorization for an increased amount of $5,000,000 in shares of common stock.  The renewal will be effective January 1, 2008. IAAC’s market cap is $226 million.
  • 4Kids Entertainment (NYSE:KDE) saw its shares rise on a 1 million share buyback of around $11 million; market cap is $157 million.  FULL REVIEW with value investor synopsis.
  • Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) was the biggy of the week, but you wouldn’t haveknown it if you saw the stock trades.  It is reinstating its sharerepurchase plan and will spend up to $10 Billion in share buyback.  Its market cap is $55.8 Billion.  FULL COVERAGE.

Read More »

The Week’s Top Issues

Next week we have earnings out of John Chambers & Co., here is the preliminary preview.  There were some major developments this last week ended November 2, 2007:

Jon C. Ogg
November 3, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he produces the 24/7Wall St. subscriber-based Special Situation Investing Newsletter.

The Week In Stock Buybacks (DELL, CROX, XOM, UNH, HNT, IMMR, ACXM, HAR, ATI, AYI, EPIC)

This might not be that unusual for a volatile week during earnings season, but this was a fairly active week for share buyback news announcements.  Some are new and some are continuations or expansions.  There is no way to cover all the share buybacks during earnings season, and we screened out the micro-cap stocks.

Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) is perhaps the biggest buyback coming down the pipe after this month.  It will now be clear to resume its major stock buyback now that it has become compliant again with having its restatement complete and SEC filings current. Dell even said it expects to resume its share repurchase program shortly after it reports its results for the third quarter (so after 11/29).  Goldman Sachs added Dell to its Conviction Buy List at the expense of H-P (NYSE:HPQ).

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) missed earnings expectations but noted that during the quarter, the company repurchased roughly 90 million shares of its own stock for about $7.8 billion.

CROCS Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) authorized a 1 million share buyback planafter Thursday’s major stock drop.  The board must have said, "Evenwith ugly shoes, these buyback things that companies have announcedseem to be well received by traders."  After traders sent CROX to the Everglades, the company might as well just save its cash.

Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ATI) Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of $500 million, and it increased ATI’s quarterly dividend by nearly 40% to $0.18 per share.  This is after a dismal earnings number.

Immersion Corp. (NASDAQ:IMMR) board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $50 million of the company’s common stock (nearly 3 million shares at current prices, with 30.1 million shares outstanding as of 10/31).  If the company lives up to it, that is an impressive buyback plan.  Unfortunately its earnings are quite spotty and expected to be that way ahead.

Epicor Software Corp. (NASDAQ:EPIC) Board of Directors has authorized up to $50 million for a buyback plan of its Common Stock that can be repurchased from time to time.

Acuity Brands, Inc. (NYSE:AYI) completed the spin-off of Zep Inc. (NYSE: ZEP) to the stockholders of Acuity Brands. Effective October 31, 2007, the Board of Directors of Acuity Brands authorized the repurchase of an additional 2,000,000 shares, or almost 5%, of its common stock. Also, Acuity has authorization to buy back a remaining 811,400 shares of outstanding common stock under the repurchase program announced in August of this year.  Baird just upgraded the company.

UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) at the Board of Directors’ regular quarterly meeting, held on October 30, 2007 renewed and increased its Stock Repurchase Program up to 210 million shares of the company’s common stock. This includes approximately 50 million shares remaining under the previous buyback plan; at September 30, 2007 the Company had approximately 1.3 billion common shares of stock outstanding.

Health Net, Inc. (NYSE:HNT) board of directors approved a $250 million increase to the company’s share repurchase program. The company launched its share repurchase program in May 2002 with an initial authorization of $250 million.  On October 16, 2006, Health Net announced that its board of directors increased the size of the stock repurchase program to $450 million and now Health Net has approximately $346 million in remaining repurchase authority.

PACCAR’s (NASDAQ:PCAR) Board of Directors approved the repurchase of $300 million of its outstanding common stock. PACCAR has invested $978 million to repurchase 27.4 million shares and paid $1.73 billion in dividends during the last three years.

Harman International (NYSE:HAR) announced that it has repurchased4,775,549 shares of its common stock under separate accelerated sharerepurchase programs for a total purchase price of approximately $400million.  After a failed merger, what choices are there?

Acxiom Corp. (NASDAQ:ACXM) board of directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $75 million of the company’s common stock over the next 12 months.  After a failed merger, what choices are there?

Jon C. Ogg
November 2, 2007

The Week’s Best & Worst Analyst Calls (WCG, MSFT, NILE, BRCM)

Wall Street analysts get great kudos sometimes, and other times they get the leper treatment.  There were many movers this week, and some of these research notes are actually carryovers from the week before.

The best two calls this week belong to Goldman Sachs, and even though more analysts and traders focus on Microsoft the best call went to WellCare.

WellCare Health Plans (NYSE:WCG) was an implosion this week we noted as having been on the Americas Sell List at Goldman Sachs since mid-February.  The FBI raid’s entire extent this week is still not fully known, but Goldman Sachs upgraded the shares today, or sort of.  The full note summary is here, but this was the biggest winner this week with a huge research driven profit for investors that followed the Goldman Sachs call. Kudos!

On Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), 24/7 Wall St. noted last week "with the conspiracy theory hat on" that Goldman must have glimmered the best data out there by taking the risk of upgrading Mister Softie (or Master Chief) to the "Americas Conviction Buy List" right before the Intel earnings were coming out.  We noted that this was very gutsy and it looks Sarah Friar has proved she can be every bit of or more what Rick Sherlund was there.  Kudos!

There were some calls that haven’t done so well, too.  Maybe there is some corporate trickery out of companies or the companies not being able to recognize trends in time.  Nonetheless there was some big drops this week that resulted in many firms getting blindsided.

Broadcom’s (NASDAQ:BRCM) performance will have accidentally qualified for a runner up status here.  The truth is that something was very wrong that had not been telegraphed.  You could blame the Texas Instruments tie or the Ericsson tie and there are of course others, but everything was indicating that the stock even if it didn’t go up on earnings would at least be in a much higher trading range.  Sometimes both the charts and the fundamentalists are wrong, and that was the case here.  It tricked us too (preview here).  Shares were above $42.00 and just last week had put in a new year high.  But Deutsche Bank, American Technology & Research, and Wachovia all ended up downgrading the stock after the earnings and outlook.  Just the week before Citigroup raised it from a Hold to Buy, so they get in the soup this week even though it was last week’s call.

And then there is the active trader analysis that is still an undecided verdict, but the analyst from Citigroup has hit this one right recently even though the firm’s position missed a huge move earlier this year.  This is on Blue Nile Inc. (NASDAQ:NILE)….. Today NILE was upgraded from a Sell to a Hold after shares closed at $78.13.  But the downgrades from a Hold to SELL was just on October 12, in the high-$80’s and just a couple or few days after this peaked above $100.00.  But back in mid-July they raised the stock from a Hold to Buy when shares were circa-$78 at the time.  But Citigroup downgraded this from a Buy to Hold back on January 12, 2007 when shares when shares were $38 to $39… That was after initiating coverage on March 6, 2006 when shares were around $33 to $34.  So it was just upside that was missed, and it was technically dead money for about 3 months after the call this January.  The verdict is out on this one, but active changes in analysis ahead of and after events (particularly when they make money like this) are worth noting.

Jon C. Ogg
October 26, 2007

The Week In Review (BEAS, ORCL, MCD, C, GE, MSFT, BIDU, VMW, ERTS, TSCM, VM, WMT, COST, BA, VLO, EBAY)

This was a long and crazy week for stock traders, but the Bond weasels got Monday off and only had a four-day work week.  Thursday was the mystery tank day when the beleaguered tech stocks dove, only to recover Friday.  PPI came in on a nominal basis at +1.1% instead of the +0.4% estimate, but when you look at core PPI without food and energy you only had a +0.1% read in September.

Here were the top stories of the week, sorry if itn’t kept to only 10.

Baidu.com (NASDAQ:BIDU)…… Traded north of $350.00 after a move that just wouldn’t quit, only to tank Thursday down to $300-ish and see a Friday recovery after Jim Cramer gave a $500.00 figure for conjecture. Here we posted some lessons from the dot.com bubble days.  Chinese stock craziness didn’t end.

BEA Systems (NASDAQ:BEAS) got a $17.00 buyout offer from Larry Ellison & Co. or Orcale for some $17.00 per share in cash and then rejected it as undervalued.

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) raised guidance again.  What a story.

Citigroup’s (NYSE:C) Chuck Prince fired management, but he didn’t fire himself ahead of Monday’s earnings.
http://www.247wallst.com/2007/10/why-citi-c-cant.html
Deutsche Bank cut Citi to a SELL rating.

24/7 Wall St. took the heads and the tails sides of the General Electric (NYSE:GE) earnings report, and McIntyre’s "tails" appears to have won the better call.  GE may also unload NBC Universal, but not until after the 2008 Olympics.

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) is having some serious Halo-envy as it made an $800 million acquisition.

No wonder Jim Cramer was happy all week, besides getting one day off for the CNBC Republican Presidential Debate….. His TheStreet.com (NASDAQ:TSCM) rose to seven-year highs.

Virgin Mobile (NYSE:VM) of billionaire Richard Branson made its IPO debut.

Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) sales were not good, but it cut costs amply and raised EPS targets.  Now that the market has stopped treating this as a grwoth stock, the earnings story is the focus.  Costco (NASDAQ:COST) posted better than expected sales.

Microsft (NASDAQ:MSFT) wants to go after VMware’s (NYSE:VMW) dominance in virtualization, but it wont be ready until later in 2008.  The big deal in VMware breaking $100 we gave some projected valuations even if you put the upside surprise on top of the expected growth rates.

Boeing (NYSE:BA) delayed the launch of the Dreamliner by another 6 months, and its suppliers got hit harder than the aerospace, defense, and jet maker itself.

Valero (NYSE:VLO) warned that feedstocks were killing margins and it gave an earnings warning, butthe stock rallied.

eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) launched its own social networking site, and the reviews are not that encouraging with a "doomed to fail" consensus from our circles.

Jon C. Ogg
October 12, 2007

Jon Ogg produces the 24/7 Wall St. Special Situation Investing Newsletter; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

The Week’s Corporate Gaffes On Wall Street (CEPH, MER, AGE, AMTD, BRLC)

This week’s "Corporate Gaffe of the Week" should actually be shared by several companies.

What may be the blue ribbon winner is Cephalon (NASDAQ:CEPH).  Reports noted that the company sent out a "Dear Doctor Letter" warning that its pain management drug FENTORA for cancer patients has a pretty severe side effect: Death!  How ironic is it that a pain drug causes death, or that a cancer patient would die from a pain aid rather than cancer?  The real problem is if you look at the company website, Cephalon was just touting the positive study results on FENTORA not even a month ago. 

When an analyst at a bulge bracket brokerage firm downgrades a key financial stock, it can actually pull down that same brokerage firm’s stock.  This happened when Merrill Lynch downgraded shares of DJIA component American Express (NYSE:AXP).  Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER) shares fell over 2% at one point Friday morning in sympathy with American Express, so that took away about $1.7 Billion in market cap from Merrill Lynch stock. The good news is that the brokerage stocks continued their rise and Merrill’s stock recovered.  Butchers can chop off their own fingers if they take too big of cuts at a time.

TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD) announced that over 6 million of its client accounts had personal contact information taken in a data hack, and customers have received unwanted email ads that the company disclosed in its SPAM investigation.  This is just a runner up because it could have been far worse.

Syntax-Brillian (NASDAQ:BRLC) is no runner-up, it really screwed up after it delayed its earnings by a day.  It wasn’t the report from the last quarter that hurt it, but the guidance and extraordinary back-items did hurt.  Oh yeah, and the CFO left the company. Ouch.

The worst timed analyst call on Wall Street this week: A.G.Edwards on Cardica (NASDAQ:CRDC).  Shares in Cardica (CRDC) fell of a cliff after an A.G. Edwards analyst downgraded the stock on muted enthusiasm for its new surgical product. The fellow must have felt a bit embarrassed after the stock popped 20% initially on news the company "received a key European approval for its new device for connecting blood vessels during heart bypass surgery." This call wasn’t the analysts fault, but was probably still a problem.  In the financial markets you can be right on your call and accurate in your prediction, but you can still go bankrupt because of other issues.

I have always known that the way the current ethanol mandates in the US were implemented and how they are mandatory was a slick sales job at best, even though I am a supporter of alternative and renewable energy.  But a report surfaced this week that gave the "Climate Change" crowd a jump over the "Global Warming" crowd.  Apparently, those who claim to have lower emissions are, well, exaggerating or just lying.

Who said there is no such thing as a funny side of Wall Street?

Jon C. Ogg
September 14, 2007

The Media Gaffe of the Week (September 8, 2007)

Everyone makes mistakes from time to time, and many of the mistakes just don’t point themselves out as a major gaffe.  Computers are only so smart, and even Gaff or Gaffe make the cut on spell checking.   Forget about abbreviations and initials being caught.

But the MEDIA GAFFE OF THE WEEK goes to Financial Times, who must think that white supremacists are getting into the M&A GAME we have seen.  Obviously "KKK" is supposed to be KKR, and that editorial room probably got a good laugh out of it later.  Unfortunately, the mere mention of this group enrages many so many won’t find this with any humor at all.  Hence, the media gaffe of the week.

The Financial Times did finally correct their mistake if you look at the link now, although I did take a picture here (see below) so you can see how it was originally run.  It also stayed that way for quite some time.  The Brits probably don’t know who the KKK is in the colonies, but they aren’t exactly the world’s most popular group.
Kkk_pic

Here is the file we saved from Yahoo! Finance where we first noticed this.
Download kkr_not_kkk.htm

Jon C. Ogg
September 8, 2007

What You Missed This Last Week (September 3 to 7, 2007)

A lot happened this last week, even if many of you were still on holiday.  Here is a snippet of what happened:

The jobs numbers sucked on Friday and gave the first negative jobs growth since 2003, but the Thursday retailer numbers looked better than you would have imagined.  Although CostCo (COST) unfortunately stank up the store.

Countrywide Fincial (CFC) announced it was sending 12,000 more workers pink slips, and that is after the crummy jobs report.  Oddly enough, the stock went up atfer-hours.

If it is time to go defensive, here is a list of 17 DEFENSIVE STOCKS.  These only fell 0.85% on average, much less than the DJIA, S&P, and NASDAQ.

Get ready for VMware’s (VMW) VMWORLD 2007 CONFERENCE next week.  Both EMC (EMC) and VMware (VMW) were hit Friday by a quasi-downgrade from Goldman Sachs.

Amgen (AMGN) looks like it is repeating the history of Biogen-Idec (BIIB).  If so, this ex-biotech turned big pharma could go much higher.

Palm (PALM) lost the prestige of having Cisco Systems (CSCO) as a client.  The networking giant started switching phones out this week after dropping the Palm Treo, so Palm may now have to list "ill-will" instead of Goodwill on its books. H-P (HPQ) has determined it wants in the business class cell phone business.  Not smart.
Palm (PALM) also cancelled its Foleo launch.  Apple (AAPL) mistakenly cut its iPhone prices, and the reaction was severe enough that no one cared about the new iPods.  Cisco Systems (CSCO) kept its targets from last month and still maintains the best market in years.

Boeing (BA) delayed the initial flight for its Dreamliner mega-jumbo jet again, but kept its launch date static.

XM satellite Radio (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) may actually be closer to getting their merger closed.  Leap Wireless (LEAP) received a buyout offer from MetroPCS (PCS), in a move that may be the obvious.  Someone tell Qualcomm (QCOM) to settle with Broadcom (BRCM). Otherwise, Jacobs the Younger is going to see the corporate guillotine.

Jim Cramer has a new caffeine play.

Oil companies better be paying attention to how large General Electric (GE) is going to get in the oil and gas sector.  Speaking of which, Baker Hughes filed to sell $2 Billion in securities.  They are selfsufficient and don’t need the cash, so who on earth are they going toacquire next?

If you were out for the entire week before as well, here’s what you missed the week before Labor Day.

Jon C. Ogg
September 8, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Top 10 Stock Issues Review of This Week (July 6, 2007)

Stock Tickers: CME, BOT, DFS, RIMM, AAPL, AA, RTP, AL, AMD, MOT, ALU, MPEL, GM, TM, BIDU, INTC, DELL, MSFT

If the CME (CME) and CBOT (BOT) doesn’t get approved next week, then what will it take?

What price do investors like the Discover Card (DFS) owner at?

The whole darn world in the palm of your hand: Is a cheaper iPhone already on the way? Research-in-Motion (RIMM), finally headed to China…..

Alcoa (AA), Rio Tinto (RTP), Alcan (AL)…..who is buying whom?

Cramer makes a new list of 3 CEO’s to go (AMD, MOT, ALU).

Did Melco PBL Ent. (MPEL) really find a bottom?

Detroit is shivering…..When GM (GM) loses to Toyota (TM) on trucks, what’s in its future?  Maybe they should head to China like Chrysler.

Baidu.com (BIDU) is entering a time warp back to 1999/2000 Web 1.0 valuations.  Calling a stock too high just because of valuations can be painful sometimes, but when these parachutes catch fire there is no reserve chute.

PC’s aint dead! Here’s the evidence: Intel (INTC) hits another 52-week high, and a high close on Friday.  Dell (DELL) even hit a new 52-week high Friday, although the shares didn’t hold it.  Microsoft (MSFT) Vista sales are about to be smoking hot, or so some think; if they weren’t, the Xbox 360 $1 Billion PLUS charge would have hurt the stock more than the whole $0.02 it lost the day after that announcement.

Jon C. Ogg
July 6, 2007

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.