Oh, and someone some day will probably buy AMR or parts of it out of bankruptcy for a song. Perhaps it is simply just another 100-point-plus drop in the DJIA or another double-digit drop in the S&P 500 Index.  The major airline carriers are trading today:

United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL) is down 1% at $21.61 against a 52-week range of $15.51 to $26.50; UAL was above $24.00 just one week ago.

Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) is down 0.8% at $10.45 with a 52-week range of $6.41 to $11.58; Delta is down almost 10% in less than two weeks.

US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC) is down only 0.4% at $10.58 against a 52-week range of $3.96 to $11.73; US Air is down about 10% in less than two weeks.

Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) is performing the worst of the lot because most investors believe that are actively hedging and that means they won’t benefit as much from lower oil prices.  Southwest’s share price is down 1.2% at $8.18 against a 52-week range of $7.15 to $12.04.

JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ: JBLU) is an exception to the rule today.  Its shares are up 3% at $4.40 against a 52-week range of $3.40 to $6.32 in part on follow-on buying after a director of the company bought more than $200,000 worth of stock.

The question that has to be asked is how the end of summer demand is going to be and how the end of 2013 will hold up.  Right now investors are using anything as a source of funds but the movement here might be acting differently than it should be.

JON C. OGG

RailAmerica, Inc. (NYSE: RA) recently announced the redemption of $74 million in its remaining 9.25% notes due in 2017.  That is not enough to move the needle on a stock by much that is worth over $1 billion in market value.  What can move a stock this much is takeover chatter.  The Jacksonville Business Journal is quoting Trains Magazine noting that Fortress Investment Group LLC is looking to sell its majority stake in RailAmerica.

Warren Buffett was listed as on potential acquirer and RailAmerica has 45 individual railroad lines with approximately 7,500 miles of track throughout 28 states in America and another three Canadian provinces.

RailAmerica shares are up almost 6% at $22.81 against a 52-week trading range of $11.06 to $23.90.  Its market value is listed as $1.15 billion according to Yahoo! Finance.

Until news gets more concrete, we would only treat reports of this sort as a market rumor.

JON C. OGG

Ackman had pushed for replacing Green with Hunter Harrison, former CEO of Canadian National Railway Co. (NYSE: CNI), but following the coup Ackman now said not to expect a coronation, “We’re going to do a proper job, we’re going to meet all the candidates and do it the right way.”

Canadian Pacific’s problems, at least according to Ackman, are due to high operating costs and he wants to reduce those costs. Ackman’s stated goal is to lower CP’s operating ratio — that is cost as a percentage of revenue — from around 80% to 66%. That would match the operating ratio at Canadian National, Harrison’s former company. Most of the credit for CN’s success, however, is attributed to Harrison’s predecessor.

CP’s main problem is that it operates mainly in western Canada in a nasty climate with difficult topography. The company hauls mainly commodity minerals and is captive to swings in the market for those minerals. Lowering costs won’t be easy once the workforce is trimmed.

CP’s ability to compete with the likes of Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX), Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), and Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) is dubious, given that CP is much smaller than any of these and that the only likely merger possibility is Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU). A potential merger between Canadian National and BNSF was squashed by regulators in 1999, so a tie-up with one of the larger railroads is unlikely.

What is likely is that Ackman has shaken up sleepy Canadian companies and shareholders. This was Canada’s first big, public battle over corporate direction and many observers believe that it’s just the beginning.

Who could be next? A good bet might by phone maker Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ: RIMM) whose recent struggles are well documented.

CP did not get much of a share price boost yesterday, closing at $75.07 in a 52-week range of $44.74-$79.91. The stock is inactive in pre-market trading this morning.

Paul Ausick

Later this morning at CP’s shareholder meeting more changes are sure to take place. In the same press release, the company said that five other directors, in addition to Green, would not stand for re-election. That means that there are now just 16 candidates for 16 available board seats. William Ackman’s slate of candidates will take seven of the available seats, and Pershing Square Capital Management will, for all intents and purposes, be running the railroad.

Last Sunday Ackman said that of the 36% of votes cast at that time, his slate had 97%. CP’s shareholders were behind Ackman’s criticisms of the company, as were three major proxy advisory firms. Ackman had also enlisted the help of the former head of the Canadian National Railway Co. (NYSE: CNI), Hunter Harrison, who is now the likeliest candidate to head CP.

The railroad’s shares are inactive in the pre-market. Shares closed at $74.87 last night, in a 52-week range of $44.74-$79.91.

Paul Ausick

It may seem impressive on the surface that formal bankruptcy was avoided here.  In reality, the losses for YRC shareholders were so atrocious that the stock issued had two different reverse stock splits.  The sub-$6.00 price of today compares to a reverse split-adjusted share price of 32,540.62 back in September of 2009.  The company’s most recent balance sheet shows that total stockholder equity is negative by -$431.8 million and its net tangible assets are also negative at -$544.9 million.

Here is what the company’s release states:

“YRC Worldwide Named to 2012 FORTUNE 500 List”

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) today announced it has been named to the FORTUNE 500 list of the largest U.S.-based companies. YRCW was ranked 487 overall.

Then the company claims over 200,000 customers and a newly optimized network for its largest subsidiary YRC Freight.  FORTUNE’s methodology for the FORTUNE 500 is listed as being companies ranked by total revenues for their respective fiscal years that are incorporated and operate in the U.S. and file financial statements with a government agency.

A look at the balance sheet and income statement shows that the revenues for each of the last three years (2011 first) were $4.868 billion, $4.33 billion, and $4.87 billion.  The losses in each of those years were (2011 first) -$409.31 million, -$325.8 million, and -$619.4 million.

As far as what to expect ahead, we cannot even make heads or tails of the expectations.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $5.12 billion in sales for 2012 and $5.45 billion in 2013.  Earnings estimates are -$21.94 per share in 2012 and -$12.98 per share in 2013.  The loss per share was -$196.12 in 2011.

The long and short is that the losses here in earnings and in shareholder value are so great that you have to wonder just how important the Fortune 500 really is.

JON C. OGG

FedEx has noted before that it plans to grow organically and to make small acquisitions, such as this one, to complement that internal growth. United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE: UPS) took a different route to growth, acquiring Dutch firm TNT Express NV for $6.8 billion.

There is virtually no chance that FedEx can make enough acquisitions and integrate the companies acquired fast enough to challenge UPS or market leader DHL in Europe. Of course UPS has its own problems digesting the acquisition of TNT Express.

And both FedEx and UPS were probably counting on a bump in US business following the closure of thousands of post offices. Now that the USPS has come up with a plan to cut services without closing any of the offices, the two giant private carriers are probably re-calibrating 2012 forecasts.

Neither FedEx nor UPS shares are active in pre-market trading this morning.

Paul Ausick

American Railcar Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: ARII) also more than doubled EPS estimates for the quarter and Greenbriar Companies (NYSE: GBX) beat estimates by more than 25%. Railroads fared well too, though not with the same big move. CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) beat its EPS estimate by 13%, Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) beat by about 10%, and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (NYSE: CP) beat the consensus estimate by 5%.

FreightCar delivered about 3 times as many cars in the first quarter as it did in the same period a year ago. The not-so-good news is that orders fell significantly in the quarter, from 4,027 a year ago to 1,244 this year. Backlog is growing, though, from 5,206 a year ago to 6,934 this year.

Sequentially FreightCar’s backlog has dipped from 8,303 in December 2011 to 6,934 at the end of March. Orders need to pick up or the backlog will peter out in the not-so-distant future.

Rail traffic in April was down -5.5% year-over-year, and coal shipments were down -16.6%, the largest decrease on record according to the American Association of Railroads. The number of rail cars in storage now totals about 20% of the fleet, and the number has increased for five straight months.

FreightCar did not offer any guidance in today’s earnings report, but analysts are expecting EPS of $0.43 next quarter and full-year EPS of $1.88. Given today’s strong report those look like slam dunks. But there are a couple of reasons to be cautious here.

FreightCar’s shares are up about 3.7% in the first 45 minutes of trading, but the shares had traded up as much as 18% in the pre-market. The 52-week range is 12.82-$24.01.

Paul Ausick

Here is how some of the major airline carriers are trading today: United Continental Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: UAL) is up 3% at $22.22; Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) is up 1.1% at $11.08; US Airways Group, Inc. (NYSE: LCC) is up 1.2% at $10.84.

The one exception is Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) with its shares trading down 1.3% at $8.11 because it is a hedge-play.  Southwest is an airline which often is more active in hedging out its oil price exposure, so a drop of more than 5% in oil prices from the peak in oil this week does not necessarily translate t quite as high of savings for Southwest.

What is important to remember here is that a $1.00 drop in crude is supposed to be worth about $400 million in profits to the airline industry.

JON C. OGG

Many investors might actually hope that we do get a 10% correction so that they can get into stocks again.  Recent reports have shown that the average investor has still shied away from stocks in favor of the safety of bonds.  The DJIA peaked above 13,300 in March after having ended 2011 at 12,217.56.  It is hard to imagine this, but the DJIA had a low of under 6,500 in early 2009 at the peak of the panic selling.  That was back to 10,000 by October of 2009 and the market is above 13,000 at the current time.  Is it possible that the DJIA has really doubled from the lows and Joe Public has not participated at all?

We want to take a look at the valuations, dividend yields, performance, and underlying trends driving some of the key industry leaders which have already reported earnings and offered guidance in order to get a better handle on what to expect for the coming summer.

Chrysler is also acting as a strong barometer for U.S. auto sales, even if the highly-volatile durable goods orders have been weak for two months.  While the retail segment is marred by a couple of undercurrents right now, sales have remained positive in 2012 when some were expecting some negative overall numbers. Now we also have a fresh report calling for at least 8% dividend growth from DJIA stocks this year and the components have so far been hiking dividends above what was expected.

We have taken a look at the following: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) in banking; General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) as the conglomerate leader (and economic barometer); Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) as a leading indicator of the metals markets; Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) as the construction and super-heavy equipment leader; Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) as the tech leaders; Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) not as a DJIA component but as an asset class; and Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) as the American leaders in Big Oil. We also want to consider E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company (NYSE: DD), or DuPont,

A Recent History of “Sell In May and Go Away”

2009 was a very different year because the market was recovering from the crash and stocks were still benefitting from that move.  2010 was a nasty start of summer as investors worried about a double-dip recession as housing prices continued to sink and unemployment was still a prime concern.  We also faced that punishing event called ‘The Flash Crash.’ Another big distraction was BP PLC (NYSE: BP) for its disaster in the Gulf and America and the rest of the world was starting to consider some problems in nations called the PIIGS.  The market peaked around 11,300 in late April and had sunk to a 9,800 by early May.  Even around July 6 the DJIA was only around 10,200 and was only back up to almost 10,500 after the end of August around Labor Day.

2011 felt close to a repeat of 2010 with the worries not just about the PIIGS but about the possibilities of a U.S. debt rating downgrade which did ultimately come.  Housing was still in the tank and employment was not yet in a full-blown recovery in America. While the end of April to the end of May did see a drop of 800 points in the DJIA from almost 12,900 in late April and early May to just above 12,000 by late May and 11,900 by late June, it was late-July and August which were the cruel months for the DJIA as companies began to suffer serious earnings concerns. The DJIA bottomed out just under 10,600 in August.  By late-October the market was back above 12,000 again.

So, here we sit at the end of April in 2012 with a long road of political hate ahead of us, and an economy that is still sluggish but one which not go into recession.  Right now the labor data is still choppy even though unemployment is down to 8.2% due to lower labor force participation rates.  Earnings growth has slowed down and Europe remains a key concern with the stable European nations being a concern on top of the PIIGS.  The good news is that equity values remain attractive and the FOMC is still pledged to a policy of maintaining an “exceptionally low rate policy” through the end of 2014.

The Leading Companies As Economic Barometers

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) are the two DJIA money-center banking leaders and they are both at discounts to their respective book values.  Both banks turned in earnings reports that show some stabilization even if mortgage woes remain a hangover from yesteryear.  2012 has also been a period of incredible recovery from an awful 2011.  Bank of America effectively doubled from trough to peak from late 2011 to the end of the first quarter and at $8.26 it has a consensus analyst target of effectively $10 that implies upside of close to 21%.  J.P. Morgan is around $43 it has risen 35% from trough to peak from late 2011 to the present time.  Its dividend yield is back up to almost 3% and the price target of about $52.80 implies upside of almost 23%.

At US Airways, profits rose to $48 million, which included a one-time gain of $73 million on a transaction with Delta related to takeoff and landing rights at LaGuardia and Reagan National. Stripping out the one-time items, US Airways posted an EPS loss of -$0.13, far better than the EPS loss of -$0.68 in the same period a year ago and nearly two times better than the consensus analyst estimate for an EPS loss of -$0.25. Revenue of $3.27 billion was also better than the consensus estimate of $3.24 billion.

The two airlines follow Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) and AMR Corp.’s (OTC: AAMRQ.PK) American Airlines, both of which reported earnings last week. Southwest also posted a profit on hedging gains, and American’s loss, stripping out one-time charges, was 40% smaller than it was in the same period a year ago.

United Continental Holdings Inc. (NYSE: UAL) is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow, as is JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU). The consensus estimates call for United to post an EPS loss of -$1.03 on $8.58 billion in revenue and for JetBlue to post EPS of $0.08 on revenue of $1.19 billion.

The good news for airlines is that traffic is up, ticket prices have been raised, and some capacity has been wrung out. The wild card, of course, is fuel costs. Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicates jet fuel cost $3.245/gallon, down -2.4% from March, and down -1.9% from the same period last year. The IATA estimates the average cost for a barrel of jet fuel in 2012 will be $135, which will raise the industry’s total fuel bill by $41 billion over the year.

Delta’s shares are down about -0.3% in the early afternoon, at $10.45 in a 52-week range of $6.41-$11.60. US Airways’ shares are up 2.9% at $9.58, in a 52-week range of $3.96-$10.35.

The lightly traded Guggenheim Airline ETF (AMEX: FAA) is up 0.14% at $29.30 in a 52-week range of $23.82-$39.18.

Paul Ausick