Posts related to ‘Value Investing’

Stocks That Missed the Rally (ABT, MO, AWK, BKC, ENER, GENZ, KR, ORB, WMT, LEAP, PCS)

Here we are going into yet another earnings season.  We saw Monday how the market has rallied significantly from the March lows and the major indexes are even up in positive territory for the 2009 calendar.  The DJIA is up 51% from its absolute lows of March, and the S&P 500 has rallied more than 61% from its absolute lows in March.  If you look at the December 31, 2008 closing bell levels, the DJIA is now up about 12.75% and the S&P 500 is now up more than 19% year-to-date.

But almost as always, there are still some key very large and/or very active stocks which have not recovered anywhere close to the same amounts with the overall stock markets.  Some of these lagging stocks are Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT), Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), American Water Works Company, Inc. (NYSE: AWK), Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC), Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ENER), Genzyme Corp. (NASDAQ: GENZ), Kroger Co. (NYSE: KR), Orbital Sciences Corp. (NYSE: ORB) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT).  Two similar situation stocks that are Leap Wireless International Inc. (NASDAQ: LEAP) and MetroPCS Communications Inc. (NYSE: PCS).  We wanted to explore the forward values and relative performance, and the consensus estimates based upon Thomson Reuters data.  Only two of these stocks have market capitalization rates under $1 billion, and almost all are very actively traded and well known in their sectors.
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Tech Titans Holding $260 Billion In Cash (DELL, PER, ORCL, JAVA, MSFT, AAPL, IBM, GOOG, CSCO, INTC, HPQ, QCOM, EMC, YHOO)

The economy is obviously getting better, so long as you are not one of the unemployed or about to lose your job.  Now with more than a 50% rally from the March lows and a Dow Jones Industrial Average challenging the 10,000 level, suddenly everyone wants to put on their investment banker hats again and look for buyers and buyout candidates after deals are announced.  This week’s Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) deal for Perot Systems Corp. (NASDAQ: PER) was a $3.9 billion acquisition versus $12.7 billion in cash and equivalents held at the end of the quarter.  The Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) deal for Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) is valued at $7.4 billion, or $5.6 billion net of Sun’s cash and debt.  We went back through our list from September 2, 2009 where we noted that outside of the financials  in the 20 largest US companies had a cash hoard of $335 billion that could be used for mergers and acquisitions, and that is not accounting for lines of credit, stock or debt that could be sold, and other means of financing a deal.  While nowhere near all of the cash will ever be used, many companies could pay big dividends before any tax changes.

So we wanted to look through the technology sector and after we looked through the top 100 markets caps in our 24/7 Wall St. Real-Time 500 we added a few new additions in the tech sector that still had over $5 billion in cash.  Out if the $335 billion from those in the top twenty, we broke out Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL).  Even after a huge rally, $335 billion and then some could go a very long way for strategic and bolt-on acquisitions as a positioning strategy for the next decade.  Now, going further down the list of the top 100 companies with $5 billion or more in cash from tech companies alone adds in Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ), QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM), EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC), and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO). When we tally up all the cash, there is over $260 billion available from these few tech companies that could be deployed for mergers, acquisitions, or the good old dividends.  Again, that is before tallying up credit lines, factoring, debt sales, and other financing methods.
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Merger Stocks With Significant Arbitrage (CYCL, T, HNBC, FNFG, PCAP, PSEC, JAVA, ORCL, VM, S, DT, IPCS)

Broken Money Merger ImageDespite the notion that times are tough, mergers are still happening.  If you look back at what we noted, the top 20 companies by market cap had over $335 billion in raw cash that could be used for acquisitions and dividends.  Two of those are in deals noted herein.  We are seeing some significant merger-arbitrage spreads in five of the existing mergers that are currently in the pipe.  These deals are as follows:

  • Centennial Communications Corp. (NASDAQ: CYCL) by AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T);
  • Harleysville National Corp. (NASDAQ: HNBC) by First Niagara Financial Group (NASDAQ: FNFG);
  • Patriot Capital Funding Inc. (NASDAQ: PCAP) by Prospect Capital Corp. (NASDAQ: PSEC);
  • Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) by Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL);
  • Virgin Mobile USA Inc. (NYSE: VM) by Sprint Nextel Corp (NYSE: S).

We have provided specific background and added in some color to highlight the risks and chances of closure of each deal.  There are some significant opportunities here in some of these deals, and some significant risks in others.
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The Lame Blame on Short-Termism

Bull and Bear ImageThere is a very silly notion being brought to you by the Aspen Institute Business & Society Program’s Corporate Values Strategy Group and what is admittedly a rather impressive list of names joining it. It is a call to end “Short-Termism” in the financial markets.  Imagine a long-term financial utopia where investors did not have to trouble themselves with the day in and day out wranglings of the stock market or the economy.

Imagine if quarterly earnings, monthly same-store-sales, quarterly or annual guidance, key turns in the demand cycle, interruptions or obsolescence of a business model and other issues were just able to be smoothed over.  Now imagine investing in this sort of a climate.  This idea sounds great on paper and probably looks great on economic models and charts that are the basis for the notion because it goes along with the current theme of thinking for the long-haul and doing what is best for everyone else.  The problem is that this is the most silly and perhaps dangerous notion for the public to embrace.  This is a path for investors large and small to get drummed, slapped, duped, discouraged and a few other things we decided not to print.
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Can Verizon Raise Dividend Indefinitely? (VZ, T)

Verizon LogoVerizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) did not immediately rise despite the announcement from the company that it was raising its quarterly dividend.  Most dividend hikes do not raise the price of stocks immediately, but this 3+% rise in the dividend is an interesting one because this is the third straight year that the company has raised its dividend.  The new dividend is $0.475 per share per quarter,  up from a $0.46 dividend for the last four quarters and a $0.43 dividend before that.

Some may point out that this is actually the smallest dividend hike compared to the two prior dividend hikes.  Frankly, in today’s business and economic climate that is a whiners’ argument that is no different than lottery ticket winners complaining about all the taxes they will have to pay.  What we want to see is how much it can grow down the road.   And just as importantly, we wanted to see how this stacks up against rival AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and its dividend history and the future dividends.
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M&A: America’s Top Companies Hold $335 Billion Cash (XOM, MSFT, JNJ, PG, BRK-A, IBM, T, AAPL, GOOG, CVX, CSCO, KO, INTC, ORCL, BAC, WFC, JPM, GE, PFE)

Money Stack ImageNow that we are out of the woods in the crash scenario, assuming this week is no ill omen, investors may want to know which of the big companies would start to deploy their billions and billions of dollars in cash for large mergers or strategic bolt-on acquisitions. In all of these companies, we are not taking the long-term or short-term debt obligations into account.  This is merely the cash, cash equivalents, and the long-term investments listed on the books.

But as these are the biggest companies in the world with what should be credible balance sheets (in most cases anyhow), we are also including a second combined figure for “receivables and inventories” for a few of these companies to show what the firms could use for additional sources of capital…. These figures do not include untapped credit lines and shelf registrations which could amount to untold billions more.  Because of this calculation, our figures may differ slightly from what companies have listed  as cash and equivalents.

Can all of this cash go for mergers?  What about for dividends?  No way.  But a large portion of it could be used for mergers and buyouts under the right circumstances.  We removed the companies which are either permanently out of the game of M&A or those which are temporarily out of it.  But of the fourteen mega-caps (over $100 billion in market cap) which we did cover, you would be shocked at the cash balance these companies are sitting on without even considering the total cumulative effect of credit lines, inventories, receivables, and open shelf registrations.  The first total cash figure comes to a whopping $335 billion.  This number is far more if you count the companies with exceptions.

These major companies broken down by cash balance and what sort of merger these could consider are Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL).  Even after a huge rally, $335 billion and then some could go a very long way.
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Whitman & Third Avenue Launch Focus Credit Fund (TFCVX, TFCIX, TAVFX)

Bull and Bear ImageIf you do not know M.J. Whitman or the Third Avenue Management Inc. family of mutual funds, then you are probably not a value investor.  Whitman and his team have been perhaps some of the deepest value investors for decades on Wall Street.  And now the fund group is launching a new fund called the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund.   There will be two classes of shares: the investor class shares will trade under the ticker ‘TFCVX’ and the institutional class will trade under the ticker ‘TFCIX.’
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When Key Biotechs Have Low P/E’s & Value Screens (AMGN, BIIB, CEPH, CBST, GENZ, PDLI)

Biotech ImageIt usually takes an event or a series of events for biotech stocks to ever look cheap compared to the overall market or even to sub-sectors within health care.  They generally trade at higher multiples of revenues and with high P/E ratios, assuming they even have real sales-generated revenues and earnings.  But in today’s climate there are many of the large key biotech stocks that are now trading with market-discounts on the P/E ratios and on multiples of revenues as valuation metrics.  We ran a full screen for BioHealthInvestor.com and some of the key names that came up with low P/E and revenue multiples were Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN), Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB), Cephalon Inc. (NASDAQ: CEPH), Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: CBST), Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ), and PDL BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLI).

There are generally some reasons that have gotten these to cheap screening levels, but some of these are showing significant value for a sector that usually commands a high-premium to most sectors.  Amgen has recovered substantially from its woes, and Biogen has as well.  Genzyme’s troubles allowed it to make the screen with some key caveats, and the valuation screens elsewhere showed that Cephalon, Cubist, and PDL are worth a look.  All of these companies were also well above our screening threshold of $400 million in market cap and average volume of 250,000 shares or more.  These all came in above $1 billion in market cap and most never see under 1 million shares per day in average volume.

The full story is available at BioHealthInvestor.com.

-The 24/7 Wall Street Team

Is There Value Left In Eastman Kodak? (EK)

burning-money-picThis morning we started seeing increased trading activity in shares of the long-troubled photo giant Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK).  Then came the option alerts along with the doubling volume alert from VSInvestor.com.  Technically, this stock started to stabilize on Friday, then had a strong day yesterday, and today exploded with a 22% gain.  This move that took it to $4.00 has shares up more than 35% from the lows of last week.  We do not want to spend too much time addressing the rumor mill, but what we did want to look at was what sort of value there is here.  Or isn’t…
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More Stocks For Buffett To Unload (BRK-A, MCO, COP, CEG, GCI, WPO, MTB, WBC)

Buffett ImageHow frequently has Warren Buffett  been bashed by the media over Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s  (NYSE: BRK-A) lackluster performance ?  What was interesting to see is his stake being lowered in Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO).  The only thing that was surprising to us was that it took the Oracle of Omaha this long to begin selling these shares.  Because Buffett is such a large stakeholder, we do expect that he’ll always hold some shares.  Conversely, we think he’ll continue to lighten up his stake in Moody’s.  Along those lines, we reviewed Buffett’s holdings and found several more stocks that he might want to consider selling some or all of his stake.

Some of these positions could include ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Constellation Energy Group, Inc. (NYSE: CEG), Gannett Co. Inc. (NYSE: GCI), Washington Post Co. (NYSE: WPO), M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) and WABCO Holdings (NYSE: WBC).  There are others, such as his stakes in drug and health care sectors that could have been mentioned, but those big directional bets may have to wait until after health care reform is enacted.   As you will see, we listed the reasons that Buffett should or could cut the stakes.
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Can A New Marketing Head Revive NutriSystem? (NTRI)

NutriSystem, Inc. (NASDAQ: NTRI) is well known as the weight management and weight loss company that delivers specially designed food in bulk.   You have seen its  commercials on TV.  Now the company is naming a new Chief Marketing Officer.  This might be noise at most companies, but for a company such as NutriSystem the marketing position is perhaps one of the most important for the future of the company.  This comes on the heels of a long period where this went from a growth story to a contraction and value story, and what the company recently called soft consumer spending  in 2009.
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Buying/Selling Berkshire Hathaway The Cheap Way: Stock Options (BRK.B, BRK.A)

Buffett ImageAdmittedly, this almost feels strange.  Before this week there have not been any stock options for Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B).  We received word from the CBOE that this is now no longer the case as there will be CBOE-listed stock options in the Class-B shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.  There will not be options on the much higher-priced A shares, but what we find interesting is that when share prices get very high or when a stock is not that liquid it seems that traders and investors alike flock to stock options to get exposure rather than using their full cash to buy the stock.
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At $70 Oil, Major Oil Stocks Still Look Cheap (COP, XOM, CVX, MUR, PBR, PTR, VLO)

oil-well-image1We keep getting asked a single question from readers and from our own industry and professional contacts: Are Oil Stocks Cheap? There is a very simple answer in today’s markets: Oil stocks look very cheap (if oil is going to stay anywhere near $70.00).  Some of these are our top picks and some are incidental, but the reviewed stocks are ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE: MUR), Petroleo Brasileiro (NYSE: PBR), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (NYSE: PTR) and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO).  By our measure, some of these major integrated oil and exploration and production stocks are undervalued by 10% to 25%.  Some may be even more undervalued than that in the large-cap and super-cap arenas.

Answering any question of whether a stock or any instrument is cheap does actually require a crystal ball that sees the future for it to be certain beyond a snapshot in time, but if oil stays around these levels then many of the major oil stocks still seem to have more room to run up.  Dare we call this value investing?  This is not a review of every single sector in the oil patch, as we are reviewing these stocks  in groups.
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Unusual Dividend Tracking (CAT, CLX, MSFT, TGT, TSCM, VMC, ACAS, IAF)

Money Stack ImageDividends in general are used as the historic underlying measurement of companies and their abilities to stay profitable at current levels.  Today and last night we have seen some rather unusual dividend news or “in addition to the dividend news” from the likes of Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT), TheStreet.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSCM), and Vulcan Materials Co. (NYSE: VMC).  American Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACAS) takes the cake for unusual dividends, and the payout at the Australia Equity Fund Inc. (AMEX: IAF) closed-end fund also borders one the unusual.

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360-Degree Long & Short Value Review of Hansen (HANS, KO)

Burning Money PicMoney Stack PicHansen Natural Corp. (NASDAQ: HANS) was one of the most unusual stealth blow-ups of Friday.  If you were not paying attention to the comments from the annual shareholder meeting then you may not have had any reason to believe that it was in for a bad day.  Shares rose from just north of $30 since the March rally to a peak of $44 in mid-May.  And then the stock started selling off.  Before June started it even broke its 50-day moving average.  Guess where shares closed Friday? $32.36, down about 11.5% on more than five-times volume, and the 200-day moving average is $32.12.
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Refiners’ Second Take: Valero’s Risk of Irreparable Harm (VLO, MRO, HES, TSO, SUN, TOT, VSUNQ)

Refinery ImageValero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) may have caused some irreparable harm to itself and to shareholders this week.  Losing money is just not something that the investing public was ready to stomach.  Dumping news of a large secondary offering right on top of projecting a loss was no different than pouring salt and peroxide on your kid’s cut hand when he wasn’t looking.  This has added pressure on other refiners such as Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO), Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES), Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO), and Sunoco Inc. (NYSE: SUN).  Valero has always had what always looked like a dirt cheap price to earnings ratio, and now you know why.  This may have put some serious future questions on the sector, even if much of this news is company-specific.
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Can Nanotech Make A Comeback For Investors? (ALTI, IBM, TINY, NSPH, PXN)

How long has it been since nanotechnology was on the tip of everyone’s tongue as the next great speculative investment frontier?  It seems like ancient history.  But we have seen news from Altair Nanotechnologies Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTI), IBM (NYSE: IBM), Harris & Harris Company, Inc. (NASDAQ: TINY), and Nanosphere, Inc. (NASDAQ: NSPH) this week.  We have even seen a bit of a move in the PowerShares Lux Nanotech (NYSE: PXN) ETF that tracks nanotech this week.

This week was actually more nanotech-related news than we have for some time even if there is still no clear direction on which way the political environment will treat nanotech in the months and years ahead.
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A New Call For Brocade To Hit New Highs (BRCD)

Brocade LogoBrocade Communications Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: BRCD) is the beneficiary of a research call this morning from Broadpoint AmTech.  Many research calls are not very aggressive and many are very reactive on the surface.  That is the nature of many analyst estimates, and Wall Street analyst have to take criticism every time they are wrong.  But some calls are very aggressive, and that is what we are seeing from this boutique.
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Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway Q1-2009 Holdings A to F (BRK-A, AXP, BAC, BNI, KMX, KO, CMCSA, CDCO, COP, CEG, COST, ETN)

Buffett ImageWe have just gotten the Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A)(BRK-B) holdings for the end of Q1-2009.  The cut off date here was March 31, 2009 and there are some changes that have been seen here from the e3nd of Q4.  We have broken these down into 3 groups of ‘A to F’ and  ‘G to O’ and ‘P to Z’ so these fit on one page easier.  Here is the list ‘A ot F.’

  • American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, same as  before.
  • Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; same as last quarter.
  • Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) 76.77 million shares; HIGHER than 70.089 million shares of last quarter.
  • Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) 12 million shares; LOWER than the 17.63 million and that is two straight quarters of declines.
  • Coca Cola (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, still same as before.
  • Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 12 million shares, same as before.
  • Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, same as before.
  • ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is really lower than the 71.228 million reported as this has been used for cutting taxes, and we already know that the number is lower than what the filing says.
  • Constellation Energy Group (NYSE: CEG) was just updated this week so the number is actually about 12.4 million rather than what the filing shows as being 14.828 million shares.
  • Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 5.254 million shares, same as before.
  • Eaton Corp. (NYSE: ETN) 3.2 million shares; looks like new holding but may have been missed before.

Here is the full list of Buffett holdings “G to O”

Here is the full list of Buffett holdings “P to Z”

Jon C. Ogg
May 15, 2009

Buffett & Berkshire Hathaway Disclose Holdings G to O (BRK-A, GCI, GE, GSK, HD, IR, IRM, JNJ, KFT, LOW, MTB, MCO, NLC, NKE, NSC, NRG)

Buffett ImageThe first quarter of 2009 Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A)(BRK-B) holdings are now out for the cut off date here of March 31, 2009.  There are some changes from the end of Q4.  We have broken these down into 3 groups A to F, G to O, and P to Z so these fit on one page easier.  Here is the list ‘G to O.’

  • Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 3.447 million shares, the same as before.
  • General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares is the same as before, but does not include the 10% preferred from last year.
  • GlaxoSmithkline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, same as before.
  • Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) 3.7 million shares; same as before.
  • Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) 7.78 million, same as last quarter.
  • Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) 3.3722 million shares, same as before.
  • Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) about 32.5 million, ABOVE the prior 28.6 million shares but still down from the 62 million last year.
  • Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) over 138 million; looks roughly the same as before.
  • Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) 6.5 million shares, same as before.
  • M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) 6.71 million shares, same as before.
  • Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) 48 million shares, same as before.
  • Nalco Holding (NYSE: NLC) 9.0 million shares; ABOVE our report of 8.730 million last quarter.
  • Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) 7.641 million shares, same as before.
  • Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) 1.933 million shares, same as before.
  • NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG) 7.2 million, same as before.

Here is the full list of Buffett holdings “A to F”

Here is the full list of Buffett holdings “P to Z”

Jon C. Ogg
May 15, 2009