Why This Key Analyst Believes That Apple’s New iPhone Won’t Live Up to the Hype

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Is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) poised to hit record numbers with its upcoming iPhone release, or will the smartphone giant have an average showing? Most analysts are fairly bullish on their expectations for shipments of the upgraded iPhone 7S, iPhone 7S Plus and iPhone 8. However, Deutsche Bank is taking a less-than bullish stance on Apple and what it can deliver for this next iPhone cycle.

Deutsche Bank currently estimates that Apple will ship about 230 million units in fiscal 2018, which falls short of the Wall Street consensus of 244 million units.

Analysts at Credit Suisse and Instinet believe that Apple is poised for a “supercycle,” similar to what we saw when the firm released the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus back in fiscal 2015, shipping 231 million units. But Deutsche Bank isn’t buying it and sees only a regular upgrade cycle happening with this upcoming release.

In a sense, Deutsche Bank believes that Wall Street expectations are a little lofty and that investors may be disappointed in the coming fiscal years, despite the amazing features and functions that the new iPhone will offer.

Deutsche Bank had this to say:

The market has become overly optimistic on iPhone’s potential sales into the upcoming iPhone launch this fall, and is ignoring the fundamental challenges Apple faces in the smartphone market, which include saturation in mature markets, elongating refresh cycles, declining share plus increased competition in China, and a growing secondary market.

Keep in mind that this new smartphone could be the most expensive iPhone to hit the market, with pricing at or around $1,200.

Shares of Apple were recently trading at $144.65, with a consensus analyst price target of $158.95 and a 52-week range of $96.42 to $156.65.