For the week ended Friday, November 4, the spot price index for a pound of cannabis decreased 2.6% from $1,430 in the prior week to $1,393, the lowest level for the year to date. According to the analysts at Cannabis Benchmarks, the simple average price for a gram rose from $3.75 to $3.79.

The futures price for the near month (December) fell $50 to $1,525. For the month of January, the forward price also fell $50 to $1,625 a pound. The six-month forward price (May) entered the list at $1,725 a pound.

About two-thirds of the past week’s transactions occurred in a range of $1,214 to $2,228 per pound.

This week the analysts commented on the potential effect on prices if the ballot measures in nine states are approved by voters on Tuesday:

As we have noted in the past in regard to legalization measures, the passage of a ballot initiative or new law legalizing cannabis to some degree generally takes at least 18 months to implement and affect market conditions, or create new ones in states and jurisdictions where legal cannabis commerce does not exist currently. Additionally, recent history and current events have shown that the implementation of such programs can be delayed and hindered by various hurdles. This has been the case in Maryland, where a program anticipated to get underway this past summer has yet to get off the ground, as well as Massachusetts, where only eight dispensaries are open two years after the passage of a medical cannabis law, and despite a robust patient count of over 32,000 as of the end of last month, according to the state Department of Health and Human Services.

However, in states with already existing medical cannabis programs, the lessening of penalties for cannabis possession and use that frequently come with adult-use legalization ballot measures could motivate individuals to obtain medical cannabis authorizations in the lead-up to the opening of a recreational market. To take California as one example, the ease with which even able-bodied persons can obtain a doctor’s recommendation for medical cannabis – facilitated further by services of questionable legality that offer short, online consultations – could lead to more individuals qualified to purchase medical cannabis from compliant dispensaries, hence driving up demand.

Implied forward prices are expected to reach their six-month peak in May at $1,725 a pound. The six-month low is expected to be $1,525 in December.

Our price check at MJCharts indicates prices range from $27.19 a gram to a low of $3.36 in the all-cities index. The all-cities index price is $12.48 per gram, down a penny compared with the prior week. The overall average price for a gram of marijuana (all strains) in Colorado is currently $11.42, ranging from a high of $25.00 a gram to a low of $3.50. In California the average price is $14.97 per gram, ranging from $27.19 down to $3.36 per gram, while in Michigan the average price is $14.01 per gram in a range of $25.00 to $5.00. In Oregon the average is $11.41 per gram in a range of $20.00 to $4.00, and in Washington the average is $10.60 per gram, ranging from a high of $21.00 to a low of $4.00.

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