The Congressional Budget Office forecast a massive balloon in the number of Americans without insurance if Obamacare repealed. The number of uninsured would rise by 27 million in 2020. The Republican effort to repeal the legislation has failed so far this year.
According to the announcement of the findings:
CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have completed an estimate of the direct spending and revenue effects of the Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017, an amendment in the nature of a substitute to H.R. 1628, which would repeal many provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). According to the agencies’ analysis, enacting the legislation would decrease deficits by $473 billion over the 2017-2026 period (see figure below).
CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the legislation would affect insurance coverage and premiums primarily in these ways:
The number of people who are uninsured would increase by 17 million in 2018, compared with the number under current law. That number would increase to 27 million in 2020, after the elimination of the ACA’s expansion of eligibility for Medicaid and the elimination of subsidies for insurance purchased through the marketplaces established by the ACA, and then to 32 million in 2026.
Average premiums in the nongroup market (for individual policies purchased through the marketplaces or directly from insurers) would increase by roughly 25 percent—relative to projections under current law—in 2018. The increase would reach about 50 percent in 2020, and premiums would about double by 2026.
In CBO and JCT’s estimation, under this legislation, about half of the nation’s population would live in areas having no insurer participating in the nongroup market in 2020 because of downward pressure on enrollment and upward pressure on premiums. That share would continue to increase, extending to about three-quarters of the population by 2026.
The fate of Obamacare has become one of the most divisive issues between Republicans and Democrats since the general election. President Trump first tried to replace it, and, when this failed, repeal it. Neither effort came close to completion.