Is Targeting Affordable Housing Just That Much More Risk for SolarCity?

SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ: SCTY) has become a rather controversial stock, and now some outsiders who are against it may signal that the latest news release is bringing on more risk than reward. SolarCity is already the top U.S. solar power provider, and now the company announced that it is launching a new solar service for affordable housing communities.

Some green investors are likely to think of the expansion possibilities and the “solar for all” effort here. They are likely to praise the effort. But then there are short sellers, like Jim Chanos who have been public just calling it a money-losing finance outfit. Elon Musk, who is the non-Executive Chairman, reportedly used weakness to buy more shares after Chanos panned the company.

Chanos and others may point out that “Affordable Housing” might be reaching down to people who either cannot easily afford solar as is. He (or they) might also argue that the tax breaks from solar may not help enough for some of the users if the affordable housing is at the lower-end of the credit scale.

This might not mean that SolarCity is (or is further) sub-prime lending, but it all depends just what targets the company is really after here. The company said that it has introduced a new solar service that can make it possible for affordable housing developers, builders and residents to pay less for solar electricity than they currently pay for utility power.

SolarCity also pointed out that monthly utility costs are the second largest bill most families face, after housing expenses. That being said, solar doesn’t always replace gas heat and gas cooking in houses with gas. Solar also doesn’t replace your water bill.

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Rather than offering up any additional pondering, the “feel good” quotes have been removed to make any analysis easier for this effort. SolarCity’s press release said:

As part of its new service, SolarCity will finance and install solar power systems on rooftops and carports of affordable housing communities. The electricity generated by the systems is distributed among common areas and individual housing units. Residents receive credits on their utility bills based on the amount of solar electricity allocated to their units, made possible by a policy called virtual net metering.

In California, SolarCity has partnered with Everyday Energy, a developer and advocate for the economically disadvantaged, to help extend the benefits of solar to the residents of affordable housing communities. Everyday Energy analyzes residents’ electricity usage and helps developers direct savings to individual residential units based on solar production and usage. SolarCity’s new service joins a growing list of community solar models that extend solar cost saving opportunities to renters that have previously been available only to homeowners.

SolarCity also makes it possible for single family home builders to install affordable solar power on new homes before the owners even move in. Builders offer solar power to residents—without delaying construction timelines or adding to the purchase price of the home—while new homeowners can save money from day one. SolarCity recently worked with Habitat for Humanity of San Fernando/Santa Clarita Valleys to provide affordable solar power on 78 new homes for returning U.S. veterans.

Key to SolarCity’s new offering in California is the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)’s Multifamily Affordable Solar Housing (MASH) program and the New Solar Homes Partnership (NSHP) administered by the California Energy Commission. To date, MASH has enabled 22.7 MW of solar capacity across 353 projects statewide that serve multi-family affordable housing. Thanks to the leadership of the California Legislature and CPUC, an additional $54 million in incentive funding was recently made available to the MASH program with a goal of installing an additional 35 megawatts of new solar capacity. The NSHP provides incentives for multi-family affordable housing projects where at least 20 percent of the project units are dedicated for extremely low-, very low-, lower-, or moderate-income households for at least 10 years.

Today’s new service furthers expands the accessibility of solar to all communities, will help create local installation jobs in low income communities and ensure that these families have access to clean, healthier sources of energy.

SolarCity shares closed down 1.8% at $42.99 on Thursday, and there was no real action in the after-hours after this news broke. That was even after Stifel initiated coverage with a Buy rating and with a $64.00 price target. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $77.33 and a 52-week range of $34.65 to $63.79.

How the investment community responds to this news remains up for debate. It is easy to argue both sides of the case. SolarCity may be opening itself up to millions of more homes, which is great for its revenues. It could also be taking on much more risk, and that could cost the company handily if the clients find out the hard way that they could not afford these savings.

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