Why RSP Permian Is Now One of the Most Attractive Permian Plays of All

Print Email

RSP Permian Inc. (NYSE: RSPP) made some serious noise earlier in October when it announced that it was paying a whopping $2.4 billion in cash and stock to acquire Silver Hill Energy Partners and Silver Hill E&P II. The company raised cash to pay for the deal, and now if you trust analysts it may be one of the Permian Basin’s cheapest oil stocks.

When RSP Permian was making the acquisition, it sold 22 million shares at a price of $39.75 per share. Now many analysts are defending the deal and the offering. In some views, the implied upside from analysts might make this one of the most attractive investments of its peers.

The move is aimed to blend Permian Basin and acreage located in the thickest and deepest part of the Delaware Basin. The deal was said to be accretive to RSP on a cash flow, production and net asset value basis.

It is important to understand that RSP Permian was actually placed on review for a credit rating upgrade at Moody’s. Still, Forbes reported at the time that RSP Permian paid a high price and they said that prices for oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin in West Texas have reached nosebleed highs.

24/7 Wall St. has covered some of the analyst reports that have raised their price targets. The consensus analyst price target from Thomson Reuters actually has moved up to $48.00, up from $44.55 just last week before the higher price targets were issued on Monday. The reality is that the new official target may rise even further after more calls are made this week.

Canaccord Genuity reiterated its Buy rating and raised its price target to $50 from $42. They said on Monday:

We believe RSPP’s acquisition bolsters the bull case going forward, despite paying what was on an acreage basis the highest price thus far in the Delaware. The company now enters one of the best parts of the basin accretively while maintaining a relatively clean balance sheet and improving its debt-adjusted cash flow growth trajectory. While we had anticipated very solid production growth from RSPP in 2017 and 2018, the Silver Hill acreage substantially bolsters the depth of high quality locations for the years beyond. Financing the deal primarily through equity, plus gaining significant existing production also helps insulate RSPP from downside risk.

Moody’s said in is positive watch for a potential upgrade:

With the acquisition of Silver Hill, RSP Permian will significantly increase its production and acreage position, including geographic diversification in the Delaware Basin. RSP Permian will have improved cash flow and production based leverage metrics in 2017 based on our expectation that the acquisition will be largely equity funded.

BMO Capital Markets maintained its Outperform rating and raised its target to $54.

Raymond James reiterated its Strong Buy rating and raised its price target to $53 from $50.

RBC Capital Markets raised its price target to $48 from $46.

Wunderlich maintained its Buy rating and raised its price target to $51 from $44.

Barclays actually suspended coverage because it is offering investment banking services. They said on October 13:

Barclays Bank PLC and/or its affiliate is providing investment banking services to RSP Permian, Inc (NYSE: RSPP), in relation to their potential acquisition of Silver Hill Energy Partners, LLC and Silver Hill E&P II. The rating, price target, and estimates (as applicable) on RSP Permian, Inc previously-issued by the firm’s Research department have been temporarily-suspended due to this potential transaction.

Deutsche Bank’s rating was a Buy on October 13 after the deal was announced. They said at the time:

While not the acquisition style we’ve been used to for RSPP over the past two years, considering the prize the Permian basin has become, we view the Silver Hill acquisition as positive for the long-term outlook. Although RSPP was one of the last to announce a consolidating acquisition (not for lack of effort), a move west has always been in consideration and increasingly we view this Loving/Lea County Delaware Basin area (EOG, DVN, APC/Shell core) as one of the emerging the sweet spots of the play. With potentially more economic formations than the core of the Midland Basin, RSPP’s operational history, and equity Silver Hill is taking in the transaction, the upside to the asset base is evident and should provide confidence in the visible multi-year growth outlook (going to 8 rigs by YE17). We remain BUY rated with RSPP a focus Permian Basin pick.

RSP Permian shares were last seen up seven cents at $42.27, and the 52-week trading range is $16.74 to $43.30. Its current market cap on most quote systems is roughly $4.3 billion.