4 Refiners Could See Massive Earnings Increase From Trump Tax Bill

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Andeavor

This is a larger cap refining play that could have big upside. Andeavor (NYSE: ANDV), formerly Tesoro, is an independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products. The company operates seven refineries concentrated in the western United States with throughput capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day.

Andeavor’s retail marketing system sells gasoline and diesel fuel through retail stations, as well as through third-party dealers and distributors. This segment operates a network of 2,492 retail stations under the ARCO, Shell, Exxon, Mobil, USA Gasoline, Rebel, Thrifty and Tesoro brands. The company changed its name to Andeavor in August 2017.

The analysts see estimated 2018 EPS jumping from $8.25 to $11.26 with a corporate tax cut, huge 36% increase.

Shareholders of Andeavor are paid a 2.12% dividend. The posted consensus price target is $117.63. The shares closed trading on Wednesday trading at $111.14.

Marathon Petroleum

This top refiner has been on a nice roll but still trades well below highs posted in late 2015. Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: MPC) has a diversified business, operating through Refining & Marketing, Speedway, and Pipeline Transportation segments. The company owns and operates seven refineries in the Gulf Coast and Midwest regions of the United States, which refine crude oil and other feedstocks, and it distributes refined products through barges, terminals and trucks, as well as purchases ethanol and refined products for resale.

The company announced in January its plans to significantly accelerate its dropdown of assets with an estimated $1.4 billion of MLP-eligible annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to MPLX. The analysts noted this in the report:

The company also decided earlier this year not to spin of its Speedway business which has 2,730 locations, spread across 21 states. Marathon plans to invest $380 million into Speedway, by building new stores and remodeling others.

The Raymond James analysts see estimated 2018 EPS rising from $4.25 to $5.46 with a corporate tax cut, a large 39% increase.

Marathon shareholders are paid a 2.53% dividend. The $65.06 consensus price objective compares with the most recent close at $63.22 per share.

Delek

This small cap refining company could bring some outstanding gains for investors with a more aggressive investing portfolio. Delek U.S. Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DK) is an independent U.S. refiner headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee, with core operating assets located in Tyler, Texas, and El Dorado, Arkansas.

Delek operates three business units (refining, retail, logistics) but derives more than 70% of its operating income from its refining segment, which has approximately 140 million barrels per day of crude throughput capacity. Delek’s product slate is skewed toward the light end, including motor fuels.

The Raymond James team lifted their 2018 estimated earnings from $1.80 a share to $2.13, which is a 28% increase.

Delek investors are paid a very solid 2.3% dividend. The consensus target price was last seen at $28.67. The stock closed on most recently at $28.27 a share.

These are four stocks for which the Raymond James analysts are raising earnings estimates to stunning levels, and while there is always the chance for them to be off, anything close to the numbers posted will be huge for the four companies. Needless to say, the passing of the tax plan is critical for these estimates to come in next year.