US Crude Oil Set to Rise 1 Million Barrels a Day Next Year

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Between January of 2017 and January of 2018, U.S. crude oil production from seven major shale regions is forecast to rise by 1.2 million barrels of oil per day to 6.4 million. Next month alone the total is expected to rise by 94,000 barrels a day.

The forecast was published Monday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report. Total production in December is forecast to reach 6.314 million barrels a day, an increase of 220,000 compared with previously estimated November production.

In August the drilling productivity report added production from the Anadarko basin of Oklahoma and Texas and combined the Marcellus and Utica basis into a single Appalachia region.

In November the number of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells rose by 94 to a total of 7,354, including 96 new wells in the Permian basin.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for January delivery traded up about 0.6% at around $57.52 on Tuesday. Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil production by 390,000 barrels a day for 2017 and by 870,000 for 2018, and the EIA reported total U.S. output rose by 290,000 barrels a day to nearly 9.5 million, nearly a million barrels a day more than 2016 production.

No overall production declines are forecast for either December or January, and production from new wells is looking for an increase in production of 12 barrels per day per rig. Production from new rigs is either expected to rise or remain flat from December to January.

Natural gas production is expected to rise by a total of 764 million cubic feet per day, with Appalachia production up by 347 million cubic feet per day. Production in the Permian Basin is expected to rise by 190 million cubic feet in January. Haynesville gas production is forecast to rise by 148 million cubic feet per day, and Niobrara production is expected to be up by 43 million cubic feet per day.

WTI crude oil for January delivery settled Monday at $57.16 a barrel, down 0.2% from Friday’s closing price of $57.30.

Natural gas for January delivery settled Monday at $2.75 per million BTUs, up 5.4% from Friday’s closing price of $2.61. Gas traded Tuesday down 0.9% at $2.72.