The Swine Flu Ferret Defense

There are dozens of biotech companies and several Big Pharma firms that hope to make money on swine flu treatments, mostly vaccines. They are driven by the WHO’s estimate that nearly a third of the people in the world could contract the disease over the next two years. The really wide big outbreak is supposed to begin in two months, about the time an effective vaccine will come to market.

Selling two billion doses of any drug offers a sales bonanza and tens of millions of dollars in R&D are being spent on the race by companies seeking to develop effective treatments.

The swine flu epidemic may be big, but it may not be bad. There is growing evidence that most people who contract the illness do not get very sick. Some people are not aware that they have it at all. There is risk to young children and pregnant women, but the real danger may not spread beyond them.

Ferrets are perfect test animals for human flues, although the reason for this is probably only known to research scientists. The University of Maryland recently infected a number of the little animals with the current seasonal strain of the flu virus and the H1N1 swine flu type. They found that the mix of the two did not cause a deadly combination. The ferrets got sick, but not very sick. According to MSNBC, the Maryland researchers found the the H1N1 strain is “not under evolutionary pressure right now to mix and mutate while it has a clear biological advantage over other kinds of flu.”

The study will disappoint drug companies because it gives people who were concerned about the deadly potential of the flu a reason to steer clear of vaccines. High death tool numbers from H1N1 are very unlikely.

The early rumors about the swine flu and its dangers are not turning out to be true. That did not keep a number of companies from betting a lot of their shareholder’s money on finding a treatment. It just turned out to be a bad bet.

Douglas A. McIntyre