The Unusual Suspects (AMLN, LLY, ALKS, ESLR, ENER, DPS, ATHN, SQNM, ABK, NKE, FDX, GME, COMS, PALM)

This week we have several issues to watch.  Earnings season is mostly done but there are still many on deck in this week’s unusual suspects.  Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN), Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) and Alkermes, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALKS) are still in the ‘pending’ status for FDA.  Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR), Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ: ENER), and Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (NYSE: DPS) are all touched in Barron’s.  Next week we have AthenaHealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATHN), Sequenom In.c (NASDAQ: SQNM), AMBAC Financial (NYSE: ABK), Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX), GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME), 3Com (NASDAQ: COMS) and Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) are all scheduled to report earnings.  We have handicapped the events with basic previews and Thomson Reuters, and we have added color for traders on what else to look for outside of the numbers.

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) did not release an FDA decision on Friday on its site nor via any of the wires that we read reporting on one.  This was over its data for Byetta,  the first ‘once weekly’ diabetes treatment for Type II diabetes.  Partners Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) and Alkermes, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALKS) are also in.  Lilly’s Alkermes is the delivery technology that allows for a delivery over the course of a week.

Barron’s has a piece out over the weekend cautioning the investor world about the big risks in solar companies which may be very vulnerable to supply/ demand issues.  Eric Savitz in Technology Trader singled out Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR) and the Uni-Solar division of Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ: ENER) as being vulnerable. It is hard to imagine that these won’t be hit on Monday morning.

Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (NYSE: DPS) is up about 150% from the lows of 2009.  This weekend Barron’s came out with a very bullish article.  We called for this to have a higher dividend, and Barron’s called for some thinking the stock can go over $40.00.

AthenaHealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATHN) is on deck for earnings on Monday after the closing bell.  Be advised that we have not confirmed this release due to its recent earnings delay along with its annual report delay.  Thomson Reuters has estimates at $0.17 EPS on just over $55 million.  At $38 and change, shares have held up rather well considering its delayed 10-K and it telegraphing that earnings restatements were likely.  Its 52-week trading range is $23.15 to $47.82.  Due to the recent changes, this one will be a wait- and-see for many traders and investors.  For whatever it is worth, the open interest here is leaning toward the PUTS over CALLS by more than 2-to-1.

Sequenom In.c (NASDAQ: SQNM) is also on deck for earnings after the close on Monday.  While this one is down over the last five sessions, Sequenom has exhibited a stellar return from its lows with gains of 200% or more.  We are not looking at estimates here because the withdrawn Down’s Syndrome test has marked that largely irrelevant.  The company’s last cash balance with securities included was over $65 million.  The company may have some of its woes behind it, but calling the ball here may be alchemy rather than science.

More junk!  AMBAC Financial (NYSE: ABK) is on deck Tuesday.  The earnings estimate is -$3.34 from Thomson Reuters.  The stock tried to make a run with the other financial junk-trunk stocks but has given back gains.  Based on other municipal insurance reports, interest here may be increased.  It is still hard to imagine how this one will avoid meeting the hangman.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) is up for earnings on Wednesday and Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.88 EPS and $4.59 billion.  This would compare to $0.99 EPS a year ago but on a 3% sales gain.  Go ahead and expect the first question to be about Tiger Woods…. that was the case at Nike’s last quarterly conference call Q&A from analysts.

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) is on deck next week.  After positive sector reports and in the recovery this stock has risen almost 150% from its lows of the recession.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of $0.72 EPS and $8.33 billion.   We are expecting to see raised guidance for its fiscal May-2010.  Those estimates are $3.63 EPS and $33.65 billion in revenues.  If no guidance is raised, you will be hearing about stretched valuations.

GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) is on deck next Thursday morning.  The estimates from Thomson Reuters are $1.28 EPS and $3.45 billion, both of which would be under a year ago.  Aren’t things in the economy and discretionary spending rising?  Yes, just not for video games.  The expectation bias here is low.  The bar is set low.  Any positive news out of the company would be well received.  There is a risk here even if it is not an immediate threat.  The video delivery method is starting to move toward digital delivery rather than on disks.  That is a longer-term issue but one to consider for the years ahead on future systems.  There are many risks on that model, but it is one to consider.  Still, the bar is low here.  At $19.35, its 52-week range is $17.12 to $32.82 .

3Com (NASDAQ: COMS) is expected to report $0.08 on Thursday…. this is symbolic more than cause and effect.  3Com is being acquired by Hewlett-Packard buyout, so this may be a formality rather than an announcement with meat.  The only thing we’ll be on the lookout for is if something gets hung up further in the merger.

Palm, Inc. (NASDAQ: PALM) is going to formally report next Thursday after the close.  Despite more phones being launched with more carriers, Palm’s Pixi, Pre, and Treo models just aren’t keeping up iPhones, Droids, and Blackberries.  The company already issued a warning, which many felt was too late and long after the company should have been able to know.  Management is probably not expecting too many friends on the conference call.  At $5.55, this hardly looks bright.  Thomson Reuters has estimates of -$0.42 on $316.19 million in revenues.  The 52-week low was recently put in at $5.46… versus a $5.55 price today.

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JON C. OGG