Key Stocks To Watch For the Week Ahead, The Unusual Suspects (AAPL, BRK-A, BRK-B, BJ, C, F, GM, GPRO, IP, KND, N, NRTLQ, ONTY, SPPI, YRCW)

This last week marked another solid week for investors and many stocks were on the move.  We have compiled a list of stocks we are looking for event-driven trading moves in the coming week that are not tied to earnings reports for the week.  The moves and events we are tracking in the week ahead are in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A), BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ), Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Gen-Probe Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO), International Paper Company (NYSE: IP), Kindred Healthcare Inc. (NYSE: KND),  NetSuite Inc. (NYSE: N), Nortel Networks Corp. (NRTLQ), Oncothyreon Inc (NASDAQ: ONTY), Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPPI), and YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW).  We have given color, some background data, and an outlook each where applicable.

If you are just seeking an earnings calendar, we highlighted about sixteen of the top earnings with detailed previews we were planning to watch on Monday and Tuesday.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) may still be somewhat in question but there are two things to watch.  The NASDAQ 100 rebalance will be behind it and there are rumors that a new slate of iMacs will be released early this week.  Shares closed at $350.13 on Friday, making that all but one day with a $350+ closing price this last week.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A; BRK-B) may be in focus a bit still on Monday after the annual shareholder meeting.  The conglomerate disclosed that natural disasters cut its net income in more than half for the first quarter, and we would note that many of those Japan claims may carry over into Q2 and/or beyond.  Buffett said Sokol violated trading ethics and that this was a blow, but he also admitted that mistakes were made by himself in monitoring the situation.  Buffett is expected to give a Monday interview on CNBC, and then hopefully the world will move on past the company.

BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. (NYSE: BJ) was up last week on word that Apollo was looking at making an acquisition offer.  This company has been in play for some time now and sadly it is getting to the point that a buyer will have to have continued confidence in the economy for years ahead to justify it (at least by our conservative models).  If no additional news is out on this matter on Monday, we would expect to see some of that move from $48 to $51 have to come back in a bit.

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) closed at $4.59 this week against a 52-week range of $3.53 to $5.15.  This week will mark its last week as a $4 or $5 stock, hopefully forever…. As for its upcoming reverse stock split, Citi gave dates of “effective after the close of trading” on May 6, 2011 and will begin trading split-adjusted at the opening of trading on May 9, 2011.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) have GM earnings but we first get to see April vehicle sales data on Tuesday.  This can influence the sector, although some of the data may be mostly known now that Ford has reported earnings.

Gen-Probe Inc. (NASDAQ: GPRO) was higher on Friday based on reports that it hired Morgan Stanley to find a buyer.  The AIDS and West Nile drug maker rose over 4% to $82.92 on Friday, but this trades around 35-times this year’s earnings estimates and about 30-times next year’s estimates with a market cap around $4 billion today.

International Paper Company (NYSE: IP) was given a top story by Barron’s this weekend called “No Peper Tiger.”  Barron’s cited a long restructuring and benefiting from the global rebound in packaging and paper demand, but noted that Wall Street hasn’t noticed.  After closing at $30.88 Friday, its 52-week range is $19.33 to $31.50 and Barron’s noted that it trades at 10.7-times this year’s and under 8-times next year’s earnings estimates. Barron’s cited one analyst having a $42 target but the Thomson Reuters consensus is $35.38.

Kindred Healthcare Inc. (NYSE: KND) had a very volatile week after shares went from $28 to $24 after the company commented on proposed 2012 medicare payment rates for skilled nursing facilities.  Shares went from about $28 to $24 before recovering a bit to close out at $25.22.  This weekend came a note from Barron’s that its acquisition of RehabCare will turn Kindred Healthcare into a powerhouse regardless of this Medicare reimbursement issue.  We’d look for another 2% or so recovery on Monday in a market-neutral scenario.

NetSuite Inc. (NYSE: N) was given a positive outlook in Barron’s over the weekend as being in the sweet spot and as gaining traction as it signs up more customers for its full suite of business software. Our only concern here is that shares were at a 52-week high on Friday at $34.84 and the stock closed at $34.61 versus a 52-week low of $12.11.  Barron’s may be a bit late on this one…

Nortel Networks Corp. (NRTLQ) may finally be done.  We have Monday as the day it seeks permission from bankruptcy court to auction off that last portfolio of patents.  After this, Nortel is effectively No-Tel as there is nothing left other than a decade of misery and blood.

Oncothyreon Inc (NASDAQ: ONTY) did some damage to itself on Friday after closing at $4.94 on Thursday and selling shares in a secondary offering at $4.00 per share on Thursday morning on the heels of good news that has driven shares higher.  While this was opportunistic for the company, this burned new holders and the stock closed down 8.3% FRiday at $4.52 against a 52-week range of $2.20 to $5.27.  We would expect some volatility to continue Monday and maybe Tuesday, but this usually trades about 200,000 shares per day.

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SPPI) saw a drop of 13% to $9.00 on more than 7.4 million shares, but this was ahead of the FDA decision.  The headlines show that FUSILEV won FDA approval for colorectal cancer.  This one had very unusual options trading Friday and we’d look for a repeat on Monday.

YRC Worldwide Inc. (NASDAQ: YRCW) gave an update to its situation after the Teamsters and creditors approved its restructuring plan.  Shares fell over 20% to $1.56 after it turns out that prior shareholders get diluted all over again and will hold about 2.5% after the restructuring is completed in July. It noted that existing shareholders will hold about 2.5% of the outstanding common stock, but more important is that this might not be the end… It said this is subject to further dilution by a management incentive plan and the conversion of certain new securities.  This one is going to be bruised Monday morning.

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JON C. OGG