MannKind Poll Points to Bias That Stock Will Rise Above $15 into 2015

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MannKind Corp. (NASDAQ: MNKD) has dipped back under $10 in the wake of the FDA finally giving approval for its Afrezza as inhalable insulin for diabetic patients. The move may have panicked some investors when you consider that the stock hit a new 52-week high of nearly $11.50 just on Monday, a day when almost 50 million shares traded hands. 24/7 Wall St. ran a poll for investors this week on MannKind, and the results were overwhelmingly bullish.

When we created the poll late on Monday, we had it set for a week. Due to getting nearly 2,000 responses that poll has now been closed. It should be noted that not all Wall Streeters are bullish, even if our readers are. Also, our poll was based on an outlook of where MannKind shares will go into 2015 rather than what happens in near-term trading.

Signs that not all analysts are bullish? Since the FDA approval, MannKind was downgraded to Hold from Buy and was given an $11 price target at a firm called MLV & Co. Zacks Investment Research said that it remains concerned about the sales potential of the drug given so many limitations. In spite of the limitations, the firm still expects shares to rise on MannKind’s first product approval — although it maintained its Hold rating. J.P. Morgan maintained its Neutral rating, worried that the $5 billion fully diluted market cap at the time already discounted aggressive sales, also with some limited market expectations.

So, how bullish was the MannKind poll? VERY! We gave several answer selections as well as allowing “Other” answers, most of which were also bullish as you can see:

  • Back Under $7
  • Fall to $7 to $10
  • Rangebound $10 to $12
  • Rise to $12 to $15
  • Back Above $15

In fact, of the 1,947 votes, some 60% opined that the stock would rise to above $15 going into 2015, and of the 6% in “other,” more than 70% of them were well above the most bullish $15 reading, as you will see in the image below.

All in all this means that close to 65% of the pack believes that MannKind shares will head back up to above $15 going into 2015, when the launch is clearer, how it pursues its marketing, and whether a partner comes into play.

MannKind shares have pulled back to less than $10, with a 3.8% drop to $9.93 in late-morning trading on Wednesday. This stock had major short interest. Short sellers remain active, options traders remain active and many investors are deciding to take profits or buy more shares. The “battleground” status continues for MannKind all the way around.

We generally will consider polls of 500 or more as valuable polls. Getting almost 2,000 responses is more than enough to consider as a representation. The poll used available tools to prevent repeat voting attempts, and it was available to anyone and everyone — market analysts, short sellers, options speculators, stock traders and long investors.

One admission does have to be addressed about polls, and particularly anonymous polls. First is that polls are simply votes based on a snapshot in time, and many things can change a bullish or bearish sentiment. Second, every poll conductor must admit going in that responders may only be talking up their position or acting in even more pointed self-interests. Third is that by being anonymous, responders have no fear of how their answer will look in time. All caveats aside, getting almost 2,000 responses in a short period hopefully removes a majority of the concerns that we would have or that other poll conductors might have.

The results are featured in an infographic below, and the image can be expanded by clicking it.

MannKind Stock poll July 1
Source: Jon Ogg via Wordpress

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