If one stock was the craziest and zaniest of the alternative energy revolution in early 2014, it was none other than Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG). Investors and traders alike have been fighting almost every day over how well the future of fuel cells looks for the company. We indicated that the shareholder reaction to earnings was bad, and we even suggested afterwards what the company has to do now to reward its shareholders.
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Now we have a bit of an analyst duel happening. Cowen and Co. has raised its official rating to Outperform from Market Perform. Just keep in mind that while the official rating is on the up, the price target was cut to $6.00 from $7.50. The firm’s Robert Stone and James Medvedeff said:
Year to date bookings of $80 million (twice that of 2013) point to a steep ramp from the second quarter and profitability in the fourth quarter. Our factory visit on May 14 confirmed a high level of activity. A strong cash position should support expansion into hydrogen generation, Asia, and new product segments. Higher expenses and new shares reduce our price target to $6.00 from $7.50.
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The team also said that Plug Power has announced rising bookings in each of the past three quarters, but also that trailing revenue comparisons reflect a period when it was working through design changes to address quality issues and was severely cash constrained.
Cowen signaled that Plug Power should trade at a premium, based on several factors. One is that it has a large underpenetrated market for electric lift trucks. Another is that Plug Power has a more than 90% market share in fuel cells for material handling. The growing backlog of five to six years of service and fuel contracts is another boost, along with a five- to six-year replacement cycle for GenDrive with existing customers.
Investors are driving shares higher on Thursday. The gain after about 35 minutes of trading was 4.7% to $4.00 on more than 10 million shares. Plug Power’s 52-week range is $0.22 to $11.72, and its market cap is currently around $573 million.
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