Infrastructure

Premium Values in Utilities Show Risk If Interest Rates Rise

With both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting new all-time highs this week, investors have to wonder how they should be positioning themselves for the rest of the year. Earnings season has also started to wind down. The long and short is that investors still want upside while not buying the top tick. And now many of the utility stocks have hit new highs and investors have to be wondering what to do here.

We have been looking for value stocks as investors have started to look for cover in the markets where they can still have equity exposure but try to get some protection compared to the broad market. The utilities sector is more than interesting because investors have bought them endlessly higher for income, almost as if these were the new bonds and certificates of deposit (CDs).

24/7 Wall St. screened the largest utilities in the country looking for the best value. This of course includes the dividend and the upside to the consensus price target from Thomson Reuters. To keep the theme of value going, we looked at book value to see which were leveraged with the most debt, and we also screened out those with forward P/E ratios above 20. All are worth more than $20 billion, and all have a dividend yield of over 3.0%.

Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK) has a price-to-book value of 1.23 to 1. Its market cap is almost $50.5 billion, making it the largest of the utilities in America. Duke’s dividend yield of 4.3% is also higher than most in the sector, and the forward P/E is about 14.9. With a consensus target price of $76.12 from Thomson Reuters, Duke has an implied upside exceeding 6%. Duke recently closed at $71.72, and the 52-week price range is $64.16 to $75.13.

NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE: NEE) comes with a 2.31 to 1 price-to-book value ratio, but Next Era is also on the path to being the most green and renewable utility as well. Its market cap is $41.90 billion and its forward P/E is less than 17. With a consensus target price of $101.39, NextEra has an implied upside of 5.5%. Trading at $96.08, it has a 52-week trading range of $74.78 to $101.50. Where next Era does not shine so bright is in its 3.0% dividend yield.

READ MORE: Warren Buffett’s Nine Top Dividend Stocks

Dominion Resources Inc. (NYSE: D) is considered a producer and carrier, and it comes with a price-to-book ratio of 3.47 to 1. Its market cap is $40.60 billion, and its forward P/E is less than 19. Dominion’s dividend yield is about 3.4%. With a consensus target price of $71.23, Dominion has an implied upside of only about 2.0%. Dominion shares closed at $69.80, and the 52-week trading range is $53.79 to $73.75.

Southern Company (NYSE: SO) comes with a 2.02 to 1 price-to-book value ratio. Its market cap is $38.59 billion, and its forward P/E is roughly 15.5. With a consensus target price of $44.35, Southern has an implied upside of only 2.4% — but what stands out is that it has a much better dividend yield of 4.8%. Southern shares closed at $43.31, and the 52-week trading range is $40.03 to $47.05.

Exelon Corp. (NYSE: EXC) comes with a 1.34 to 1 price-to-book value ratio. Its market cap is $30.33 billion, and its forward P/E is less than 15. Its consensus price target of $34.29, and share price of $35.63 gives an implied downside of 3.8%. Exelon has a 3.4% yield, but that does not make up for the negative upside to the consensus target price. Its 52-week trading range is $26.45 to $36.84. With negative implied upside, how many investors will chase this one?

American Electric Power Co. Inc. (NYSE: AEP) comes with a 1.55 to 1 price-to-book value ratio. Its market cap is $25.49 billion, and its forward P/E is less than 15. With a price of $52.23 and a consensus target price of $54.50, it comes with an implied upside of 4.3%. It also comes with a dividend yield of 3.8%, and its 52-week trading range is $41.83 to $54.64. The company’s big overhang remains that it has many coal plants. It has tried to transition to other energy sources, but the progress it has made hasn’t been fast enough for EPA guidelines.

READ MORE: Merrill Lynch’s Top Four Water Stocks

PPL Corp. (NYSE: PPL) comes with a 1.66 to 1 price-to-book value ratio. Its market cap is $21.09 billion, and its forward P/E is less than 15. With a price of $33.39 and a consensus target price of $35.41, PPL has an implied upside of 6.0%, plus it has the 4.4% dividend yield. PPL shares have a 52-week trading range of $28.44 to $34.63.

PG&E Corp. (NYSE: PCG) comes with a 1.37 to 1 price-to-book value ratio, the lowest of the lot. It also has a market cap of $20.1 billion, and its forward P/E is less than 14. With shares at $43.20, and a consensus analyst target price of $47.44, PG&E has the highest implied upside of 9.8%. It also comes with a solid 4.2% dividend yield. PG&E shares have traded between $39.42 and $48.02 in the past 52 weeks. The regulatory environment of California keeps its valuations lower than peers.

Some of the reasons vary for why certain utilities are worth more or less than their peers. These all have market caps of $20 billion or greater. We also demanded dividend yield minimums of 3.0%, but note that in the past these yields were much closer to 5% (and some higher) before they began attracting so many dollars that would have traditionally gone into bonds.

READ MORE: Big Upside in Clean Tech After the Drop

PG&E sounds like the cheapest utility of the lot with the most upside, but that is because investors will not pay the same multiples for it when it is regulated and taxed in California. AEP is in the middle of the road by all counts, but the company has proven to be extra friendly and proactive for its shareholder interests. That puts the value fight for perceived double-digit gains, forward P/E ratios under 15, and acceptable book value multiples in a horse race between Duke Energy and PPL.

The good news is that from a market perspective these do not feel overvalued. The bad news is that these valuations have risen and risen while the yields have been forced lower and lower. It is obvious that the extremely low interest rate environment has forced many bond investors into common stocks of utilities looking for yield. That means that this sector may only hold up as long as investors cannot get great yields from the 10-year Treasury note and longer dated maturities do not start moving rapidly. If investors start to get yields of 3.5% to 4.0% in 10-year Treasury yields, current investors need to at least consider how much will these utilities have to sell off to move their yields up another 1% or so.

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