Nouriel Roubini, the notorious bear who called for all this mess we have seen, is finally throwing in the towel on being so bearish and looking more like a soft-bull. Maybe only a bit, but that may be enough. There was originally some issue over the timing of when, but late 2009 or early 2010 is when Roubini expects the recession to end.
While Roubini said deflation is a near-term risk, Roubini noted that inflation is going to be an issue if the US does not adjust its policies in the near-term. Just like Buffett, Roubini is said to also favor another stimulus package.
In the Daily Digest at Roubini’s RGEMonitor.com website, they are calling for the economy to turn the corner in 2010. This may seem a bit odd considering that it was just Tuesday when Roubini’s EconoMonitor was talking about mounting job losses as a huge risk and just last week when Roubini said the recession would end in six months and have only a shallow recovery.
If you have been following Roubini for some time, he has actually been getting less and less bearish for a few months. He still tried to sound cautious and negative, but you have to interpret what perma-bulls and perma-bears say sometimes to really know what they are saying.
Much of this may in fact be very much the same sort of issue as Meredith Whitney’s first upgrade this week. That was a good-bad call, so to speak.
JON C. OGG
JULY 16, 2009