Top Earnings Previews For The Week Ahead (BIDU, NFLX, MMM, AMZN, BIIB, FSLR, F, JNPR, COP, GMCR, V, WFM, ALU, CHK, S, SBUX, TYC, AMGN, ITT, MRK)

Earnings season is in full throttle and many major companies are due to report in the week ahead.  Some of the key reports we are featuring for detailed earnings previews are the following: Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU); Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX); 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM); Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN); Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB); First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR); Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F); Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR); ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP); Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR); Visa Inc. (NYSE: V); Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM); Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU); Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK); Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S); Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX); Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC); Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN); ITT Corporation (NYSE: ITT); and Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK).

We have featured earnings estimates from Thomson Reuters, shown prices and relative trading history and color on each of the reports.  If analyst price target has been provided, that is also a Thomson Reuters target.

MONDAY, JULY 25

Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) has estimates of $0.66 EPS and $502 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.74 EPS and $568 million in revenues.  With shares around $153.00, its 52-week trading range is $74.50 to $156.04.  With all of the accounting issues out of China, one might expect that Baidu would be way off.  Presto, it is not and in fact it is very close to its highs.  Without competition in China it seems that the Baidudians trust the accounting folks just fine at Baidu.  The high-beta and high market premium valuations have always been a concern here.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) has estimates of $1.11 EPS and $790 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.11 EPS and $844 million in revenues.  With shares around $277.00, its 52-week trading range is $95.33 to $304.79. Netflix is another high valuation and high performance stock.  The key is that since its price change was announced it seems that the tone and bias from analysts and from momentum traders has lightened up.  Still, the pullback is now close that magic 10% level.

TUESDAY, JULY 26

3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) has estimates of $1.60 EPS and $7.60 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.69 EPS and $7.84 billion in revenues.  With shares around $95.50, its 52-week trading range is $78.40 to $98.19. 3M has already had conglomerates report ahead of it now.  You can also see based on the price and the 52-week range that its shares have held up very well.  If any blow-ups are coming, it does not seem as though investors have priced in any bad surprises for this DJIA component.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has estimates of $0.35 EPS and $9.37 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.48 EPS and $10.32 billion in revenues.  With shares around $212.00, its 52-week trading range is $105.80 to $220.20.  Amazon.com continues to perform well after earnings.  It seems that the investment for around the cloud and for its buildout take a much higher precedent than the worries we have about the contracting margins.  Amazon is one of those great companies that is still within striking distance of becoming the next mega-cap stock with a $100 billion valuation. 

Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) has estimates of $1.40 EPS and $1.19 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.49 EPS and $1.21 billion in revenues.  With shares around $105.00, its 52-week trading range is $52.40 to $109.63. Biogen-Idec has just been an incredible performer that almost came back from nothingness.  Our concern is that the performance was solid enough that it probably needs to blow the doors off the hinges to keep everyone happy.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) has estimates of $0.92 EPS and $590 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $2.86 EPS and $1.08 billion in revenues.  With shares around $125.00, its 52-week trading range is $111.40 to $175.45.  First Solar will effectively be the lead-off proxy for the solar sector in earnings season.  Shares have floundered whether we have a bullish trend or a bearish trend and the post-Japan benefits have been elusive.  It hasn’t helped that Chinese solar rivals are driving down peer valuations because of Chinese accounting woes.  It is hard to imagine that First Solar is a value stock, but that is where we are now.

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) has estimates of $0.60 EPS and $31.6 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.38 EPS and $29.8 billion in revenues.  With shares around $13.25, its 52-week trading range is $10.95 to $18.97.  Ford is another situation that went from hot to snot for investors in 2011.  The bar is likely set very low now that one-third of the valuation has come off the stock.  Americans seem to have moved on from the bailouts and now just buy what they get the best deal on.  This remains the best run auto company in America by our take but GM shares are down and still in busted-IPO territory.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NYSE: JNPR) has estimates of $0.34 EPS and $1.15 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.38 EPS and $1.22 billion in revenues.  With shares around $31.00, its 52-week trading range is $25.00 to $45.01.  Juniper has pulled back considerably from its highs, and the pullback of Cisco, Riverbed, and even Brocade has lowered the valuation bar.  Even though the bar is set low for Juniper, we worry that the bias in anything networking right now remains challenging.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 27

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) has estimates of $2.24 EPS and $60.3 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $2.16 EPS and $58.6 billion in revenues.  With shares around $75.50, its 52-week trading range is $52.00 to $81.80.  ConocoPhillips still has a high enough yield to entice buyers in the oil patch.  It also has that large breakup coming its way.  Our concern is that much of the bump higher in share price has already worn off and analysts only have about 10% upside to the $82.89 consensus price target.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ: GMCR) has estimates of $0.37 EPS and $608 million in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.43 EPS and $702 million in revenues.  With shares around $92.50, its 52-week trading range is $21.83 to $93.22.  Green Mountain is no market moving stock but it is the coffee growth story of recent years. Our warning: these shares are priced for perfection, perhaps even “and then some.”

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) has estimates of $1.23 EPS and $2.30 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.23 EPS and $2.38 billion in revenues.  With shares around $89.50, its 52-week trading range is $64.90 to $90.83.  Visa will be interesting to see how the report comes out with the more ‘less bad’ swipe fee laws.  What is amazing is that shares are really within a couple percent of year highs and analysts still expect another 12% upside or so.

Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) has estimates of $0.48 EPS and $2.42 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.41 EPS and $2.35 billion in revenues.  With shares around $66.00, its 52-week trading range is $34.04 to $67.42. Whole Foods remains at stretched valuations even if it still has room for growth in new markets and in existing markets.  Shares are within about 3% of fresh highs.

THURSDAY, JULY 28

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) has estimates of $0.02 EPS and $5.75 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.06 EPS and $5.95 billion in revenues.  With shares around $5.15, its 52-week trading range is $2.46 to $6.63. Alcatel-Lucent is trying to unlock value with its enterprise potential sale or spin-out but the shares remain the top networking performing stock this year even with shares having sold off.  Our big concern about evaluating the earnings report is that earnings are ‘translated’ from Euros.

Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK) has estimates of $0.71 EPS and $2.68 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.71 EPS and $2.80 billion in revenues.  With shares around $34.00, its 52-week trading range is $19.68 to $35.95. Chesapeake has been doing everything we would ask and then some.  Higher payouts, better nat-gas promotion ambitions for a real energy policy in America, and making moves with its business unit structures.  Our concern is over its earnings valuation premium, but that may just be a case we have to deal with until its true underlying value can be unlocked when nat-gas is priced higher and more widespread in use.

Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE: S) has estimates of a loss of $0.12 EPS and $8.30 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates of a loss of $0.18 EPS and $8.34 billion in revenues.  With shares around $5.20, its 52-week trading range is $3.70 to $6.45. Sprint-Nextel remains the ugly ducking of the big three wireless operators.  As far as passing more judgment, we hate the environment of operating losses even if it is cheap on the revenue analysis.

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) has estimates of $0.34 EPS and $2.85 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.37 EPS and $2.91 billion in revenues.  With shares around $40.40, its 52-week trading range is $22.50 to $41.11. Starbucks remains at a premium valuation above what we would have expected in its turnaround.  The real driver we see is from the ongoing international growth.  The stock is within 2% or 3% of its consensus price target and the premium P/E will likely keep it from raising the dividend too much.

Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) has estimates of $0.73 EPS and $4.21 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.89 EPS and $4.45 billion in revenues.  With shares around $47.25, its 52-week trading range is $35.77 to $53.38.  Tyco is the former conglomerate that has been broken up.  Shares are off highs more than others, but that was because of the old hope of a buyout heading its way.  Outside of that, this looks fairly valued and a new catalyst may remain elusive for now.

FRIDAY, JULY 29

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) has estimates of $1.28 EPS and $3.78 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.32 EPS and $3.84 billion in revenues.  With shares around $55.20, its 52-week trading range is $50.26 to $61.53. Amgen remains stuck in the mud right in the middle of a long-term $50 to $60 price range.  What Amgen does have going for it is that Biogen-Idec did ramp solidly this year.  Investors have to be wondering if a copy-cat rally can take place here.  Analysts still hope it can go to $65 or higher for a consensus price target but we would note that the $65 handle has not been seen since 2007.

ITT Corporation (NYSE: ITT) has estimates of $1.17 EPS and $2.83 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $1.22 EPS and $2.77 billion in revenues.  With shares around $56.50, its 52-week trading range is $42.05 to $64.00.  ITT is all about the break-up.  We will be looking for the water unit valuation and the company has said that it would highlight more on the breakup in the near future.

Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) has estimates of $0.95 EPS and $11.76 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.91 EPS and $11.47 billion in revenues.  With shares around $36.00, its 52-week trading range is $31.06 to $37.68.  Merck was recently a runner-up against Pfizer in or Stocks That Can’t Return to Former Highs… It faces the same with low catalysts counteracted by a high dividend yield.  The good news here is that Merck’s portfolio may be more intact.  Analysts have a price target north of $40 per share, implying more than 10% upside.

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JON C. OGG