Greek Default Fears On Again, Off Again (NBG, GREK)

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If you are watching the market news, the status of Greece is on again and off again.  It sounds like a Greek deal is no longer a sure thing and earlier today it actually looked questionable as to whether or not Greece will even get its funding for an orderly default.  On again, off again.

A headline from Reuters currently has it back in favor on word that the Greek conservative leader will deliver a commitment to lenders on Wednesday.  Will that last?

Without funding, a formal default will occur and Greece’s ability to remain in the Euro will be We have always maintained that until a deal is signed it cannot be trusted.  Even then, no matter what Germany and the rest of the European Union try to demand it seems impossible to think that Greek politicians will not get in the way after the fact even if they agree not to interfere in the months ahead.

ADRs of the National Bank of Greece S.A. (NYSE: NBG) are down 4.6% t $3.68; and the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSE: GREK) is down only 2.6% at $18.80.

This is a chicken and egg scenario where both parties are playing the car version of ‘chicken.’  The Greek people have gotten far too cushy of benefits for far too little output for more than a generation.  The flip-side is that you cannot blame them for having more and more taken away.  Something has to give, and frankly it sure looks more and more like the Drachma has a chance of returning.

Keep in mind that Greece may be too small to make a huge difference in the world these days.  Still, watch what is happening.  There are many nations whose finances are in much of the same shape as Greece, and the United States is drifting closer than many Americans would care to believe.

JON C. OGG

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