Gallup reports this morning that the US unemployment rate in mid-February has risen from 8.6% inJanuary to 9% in mid-February. The figure is not seasonally adjusted. Gallup notes that the seasonally adjusted rate of 8.3% it reported in mid-January accurately predicted the drop in the official US rate reported for January by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Gallups measures of workers working part-time who seek full-time employment and underemployed workers also rose in the mid-month count. Regarding the official February report from the BLS, Gallup noted:
Seasonal forces typically cause unadjusted unemployment rates to increase at this time of year. In this regard, some of the sharp increase Gallup finds in unemployment and underemployment may result from seasonal factors. Although the government seasonally adjusts the U.S. unemployment rate, and the workforce participation rate could decline — both of which could drive down its unemployment rate — it still seems likely that the BLS will report an increase in the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February.
The BLS reports February unemployment numbers in early March.
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