On Feb. 28 we went back and took a look at all Leap Year trading days after the Feb. 28 trading day to look for any patterns. We admit, this is something that we expected to be a fool’s folly but market statisticians will try to find a pattern in anything. If you saw the movie ‘Pi’ you will get it that there are some guys out there who think there is a pattern in anything. The one pattern we did find was that there had not been two ‘Leap Days’ in a row which had negative performance. That changed on Wednesday after the DJIA (NYSE: DIA) fell more than 50 points.
Our thesis going in was that even there was a pattern that the gains were too small to chase after you factor in fees and commissions. There is a theory that the market looks to cause pain to the most people under the same philosophy. That ended up being the case yesterday as the DJIA now does have two consecutive ‘Leap Day’ losses.
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