Inflation in China reached a 20-month low as it moved up only 3.2% in February. The figures show a number of trends which have taken hold in the People’s Republic. No. 1 is that a drop in manufacturing has slowed the demand for commodities. The second is that, for some reason, food prices are down. The third, and most troubling reason for the political leadership, is that new estimates of slow growth in GDP are accurate and perhaps understated. China needs some measure of strong growth to support its new middle class which is critical to the consumer spending that is supposed to offset slowing export activity. And, the consumer spending is based on the ability of workers to get higher wages. That fight will be harder to win with an economy which is no longer red hot.
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