Once the panic starts to set in a little, the stocks that are the first candidates for a trip to the woodshed are the momentum names. Momentum investors typically buy the best performers and short the worst performers. That strategy got hit hard last Friday and the selling followed through to Monday. Market strategists see this selling bout as a reaction to emerging market currencies around the world weakening. The fact of the matter is developed markets like the United States typically do better when emerging markets get hit.
The equity research team at Jefferies quickly came out with a list of their stocks to buy that have been ambushed hard, not only the past two trading days, but since the beginning of the year. Typically, the momentum trading factor acts poorly in December and January as investors rotate out of the winners, but up until last Friday that had not happened this season. The Jefferies analysts stress that it may be premature to say after just two days that this weakness in momentum is over. However, some of the stocks that they like best for 2014 are starting to populate the screens they ran last week, and they likely will provide opportunities for medium- to long-term investors.
We screened all of their names to buy down 15% or more for some ideas for investors that have taken some profits and have cash to put to work.
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AEGR) engages in the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics to treat debilitating and fatal rare diseases in the United States. The company specializes in orphan drugs, which often require less strenuous testing by the FDA. The analysts anticipate that the company’s Juxtapid drug will generate more than $1 billion in peak sales. Wall Street sees $600 million in sales by 2017. The Jefferies price target is posted at $90, while the Thomson/First Call consensus stands at $103.20. Aegerion closed Monday at $56.74. The stock is down more than 20% since the beginning of the year.
Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE: BBY) has been absolutely destroyed since announcing weak holiday sales numbers. The stock more than tripled last year as the company met its rivals head-on with price-matching policies that largely eliminated the advantages of its competitors. More importantly, its store-within-store formats for makers of popular mobile devices and computers have drawn interest from major manufacturers, letting Best Buy take advantage of its retail space to give it competitive advantages that online retailers cannot match. Investors are paid a 2.7% dividend. The Jefferies price target is $38, and the consensus has fallen to $33.64. Best Buy closed Monday at $24.60. The stock is down more than 40% from its high.
Calix Inc. (NYSE: CALX) is an information technology name that could have big upside. The company reported very disappointing preliminary fourth-quarter numbers and the sellers showed up in droves. To explain the revision, the company stated it is seeing a “greater than anticipated decline in traditional year-end ‘budget flush’ customer spending patterns than the company historically has experienced.” Jefferies remains bullish on the name and has a $15 price target. The consensus figure is posted at $12.92. Calix closed Monday at $8.07. The stock has fallen more than 15%.
ExOne Co. (NASDAQ: XONE) is a 3D printing stock that may offer huge value for patient investors. Shares of the company have been among the most volatile in the 3D printing space. This trend continued following its recent revenue expectations update. The company lowered expectations for 2013 from $48 million to between $40 million and $42 million. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $72 and the consensus is at $62.57. The stock closed Monday at $47.50 and is down more than 25%.
Five Below Inc. (NASDAQ: FIVE) is another top retailer that has been taken apart. While the short-term selling has created a huge mess for shareholders, the long-term growth story is still intact for the most part. Management remains optimistic in its ability to achieve solid growth and boost shareholder value. The company’s core customer is teens and preteens. They typically will continue to spend regardless of outside issues. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $48, and the consensus is posted at $45.33. Five Below closed Monday at $37.51. That is down more than 16% from the highs.
Pier 1 Imports Inc. (NYSE: PIR) is another top retail name to get hit hard. The company stands to continue benefiting from the growth in U.S. housing. This is a retailer that sells an eclectic mix of housing goods, primarily through its stores. In an age when millions of purchases are made online, Pier 1 stands apart as an old-school retailer. Investors are paid a small 1.2% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $28, and the consensus is at $24.85. Pier 1 closed Monday at $19.50. The stock is down more than 15%.
3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) is another 3D printing company that has been hit hard. The company is one of the veterans in the industry, and if anybody can bounce back it may likely be 3D Systems. Even though the economy has fumbled about for recovery, 3D printing solutions have gained favor among manufacturers and appear to be on the cusp of widespread adoption. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $102, and the consensus is at $93.71. 3D systems closed Monday at $75.90. That is down almost 25%.
While this recent selling probably will send a note of caution to most investors, none of the facts regarding equity ownership have changed. The bond market is not the place to be as, with a rising rate interest scenario and despite the recent rally, yields will be going higher again soon. We have cautioned that a correction may come this year, and it may prove to be bigger than what we have experienced so far. So carefully scaling in to any new purchases makes good sense.