Investing

Full 360-Degree Preview for Micron Earnings

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) will report earnings after the close of trading on Thursday. The DRAM and flash memory giant has a lot to live up to when it reports earnings. Investors are moving from a turnaround and hyper-growth story to one that is about normalized growth and value. This is not a bad position of course, but the transition period between these types of investors can often come with severe gyrations and volatility until the dust settles.

24/7 Wall St. has created a full 360-degree review and preview for Micron’s earnings report. We have used Thomson Reuters consensus data for earnings estimates and analyst targets. Also included are a valuation analysis, a look at analyst dispersion, put and call options trading, and a technical analysis review using key moving averages.

The first thing to consider is that Micron shares have rallied about 300% since the end of 2012. The next consideration is that this stock has been stuck in a $30 to $34 trading range since June. Thursday’s sell-off of almost 2% was due to a broad market sell-off rather than due to any exact pre-earnings jitters trade.

Thomson Reuters has its consensus estimates at $0.81 in earnings per share and $4.15 billion in revenues for this quarterly report. Keep in mind that this compares to the same quarter of 2013 with results of $0.20 in earnings per share and $2.84 billion in revenues.

Estimates for the coming quarter are $0.85 in earnings per share and $4.36 billion in revenues. That would compare to $0.77 per share and $4.04 billion a year ago.

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There has been significant sales growth from fiscal year 2013 to fiscal year 2014. Consensus estimates put this growth in the neighborhood of almost 80%. While this is mainly due to the acquisition of Elpida in 2013, Micron was already in a turnaround that was working for shareholders.

Looking ahead to the 2015 fiscal year, the Thomson Reuters consensus estimates are looking for a mere 8% sales growth from this current year. This is where investors often find themselves in a conundrum — that period where a turnaround has matured or where the acquisition bringing big growth starts to look normal again. Growth investors often do not like becoming value investors.

To prove a growth versus value story here, Micron’s 2014 earnings are expected to be $3.21 per share versus a loss of $0.18 per share a year ago. Revenue growth is expected to be 79.5%. For the coming year, earnings growth is expected to be just under 10% and revenue growth is expected to be just under 9%. And the valuation is only 10 times expected earnings for this year and nine times next year’s expected earnings.

Micron’s recent trading range of $30 to $34 has not been violated in Thursday’s pre-earnings market correction pullback. The stock’s 50-day moving average has also been a magnet since the start of August, and that average is currently at $32.03 — though it has started to drift lower of late. The stock’s 200-day moving average is all the way down a $27.34, a telltale sign of just how much this stock has risen from a year ago.

Options traders have priced in a move of just over $2.00 in either direction based on earnings. That would be a move of up to almost 7% in either direction. Trading activity has been very active in both puts and calls with a large open interest, but the current week’s options expiring on Friday are much more skewed toward Call Option trading and Call Option open interest in the closest speculative calls — a sign that the bets are leaning toward a bullish bias.

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The Thomson Reuters consensus analyst price target is $38.86. Still, what investors need to consider is that at least two analysts see Micron rising to as much as $50 ahead. That is a serious discrepancy among analysts. We would also point out that many analysts were chasing up Micron the entire way, so either investors were too bullish or analysts just did not get bullish enough.

Micron’s stock price was down almost 2% at $31.60 in late morning trading on Thursday, and the 52-week range is $16.17 to $34.85. It has a market cap of roughly $34 billion.

Stay tuned to the post-earnings reaction. This could be a crucial report for how Micron is valued and treated by investors ahead.

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