Jefferies Makes a Huge Q4 Change to the Franchise Picks List

November 7, 2016 by Lee Jackson

With earnings for the third quarter almost over, and the fourth quarter of 2016 in full swing, many of the top companies we follow on Wall Street are making some changes to the lists of their high conviction stock picks for clients. With the market continuing to trade to near all-time highs, it makes sense to examine the lists and make some changes, as the rest of the year could have additional volatility as the political cycle could prove to be very volatile component.

In a recent research note, the analysts at Jefferies make a big move by removing a top medical devices company from the firm’s well-respected Franchise Picks list of stocks.

Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ZBH) was a huge 2015 merger that Wall Street was positive on from the get-go, but Jefferies now has removed the stock from its Franchise Picks portfolio. The company is a global leader in musculoskeletal health care. The company designs, manufactures and markets orthopaedic reconstructive products; sports medicine, biologics, extremities and trauma products; spine, bone healing, cranio maxillofacial and thoracic products; dental implants; and related surgical products.

After Zimmer Biomet reported weak third-quarter results, Jefferies chalked it up to what the analysts termed “unforeseen supply issues.” The firm also noted this in their research coverage:

Management lowered guidance and at this point it remains unclear exactly how far into 2017 these supply issues will linger, which brings us to question if double digit earnings-per-share growth is a reasonable goal. Our Buy rating remains given the overly discounted valuation and intact cash position.

Jefferies has a $129 price target for the stock. The Wall Street consensus price objective is higher at $132.24, and the shares closed last Friday at $103.01.

In addition, here are four stocks in the Franchise Picks portfolio offering big dividends and solid upside potential.

AbbVie

This is one of the top global pharmaceutical stocks picks across Wall Street. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE: ABBV) is a global, research-based biopharmaceutical company formed in 2013 following separation from Abbott Laboratories. The company’s mission is to use its expertise, dedicated people and unique approach to innovation to develop and market advanced therapies that address some of the world’s most complex and serious diseases. AbbVie employs more than 26,000 people worldwide and markets medicines in more than 170 countries.

One of the biggest concerns with AbbVie is what eventually might happen with anti-inflammatory therapy Humira, which generated $14 billion in sales in fiscal 2015. That was the most any drug has recorded during a single year and represents a gigantic part of the company’s overall earnings. The problem is that biosimilars and generics are itching to enter the market with Amgen leading the charge, and some Wall Street analysts project that AbbVie may have a difficult time stopping that trend.

Back in May, the patent board instituted Coherus BioSciences’ Inter Partes Review against the Humira ‘135 patent. The outcome of the review is expected next year. While most analysts remain positive on Humira duration, the expected litigation uncertainty could continue to create an overhang on the stock, which does give investors chances to pick up shares lower.

AbbVie investors receive a 4.57% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $90, and the Wall Street consensus target is $71.21 Shares closed Friday at $56.04.

Boeing

This top aerospace industrial is still down almost 8% since the beginning of the year. Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sells, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight, and launch systems and services worldwide.

Top analysts have noted that the commercial aerospace business is cyclical, and there are some indications that airlines may have expanded their wide-body fleets too aggressively in recent years, suggesting a period of weaker demand going forward. In addition, the fall in oil prices reduces the incentive to upgrade to the most fuel-efficient planes. Boeing is launching refreshed versions of the 737 and the 777 in the next couple of years.

The company was recently awarded a $478.79 million contract for engineering manufacturing and development of a Passive/Active Warning and Survivability System for the F-15 Eagle fighter jet. With both of the candidates for president probably positive for the aerospace and defense sector, the stock looks like a solid valuation play at current levels.

Boeing investors receive a 3.12% dividend. The $165 Jefferies price target compares with the consensus target of $150.78. The shares closed on Friday at $139.54.

Halliburton

This is one of the two energy stocks in the Franchise Picks portfolio, and it is still down almost 30% from highs printed two years ago. Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) is one of the world’s largest providers of products and services to the energy industry. It serves the upstream oil and gas industry throughout the life cycle of the reservoir, from locating hydrocarbons and managing geological data to drilling and formation evaluation, well construction and completion, and optimizing production through the life of the field.

The oil field giant announced last year a $1 billion investment to develop huge potential oil fields in Ecuador and has entered into a long-time deal with Petroamazonas, an Ecuador-based company involved in the exploration and development of the country’s oil reserves. With oil looking to stabilize in the $40 to $50 range, this top oil service company is a great stock to buy on sale, as the oil recovery has shown some legs.

Halliburton is the second-largest provider of oil services and the number one player in pressure pumping services worldwide. Revenues in 2015 totaled $27.8 billion and EBITDA was $7.2 billion. For investors looking for an oil field services company to add, this is arguably the best.

Halliburton shareholders receive a 1.55% dividend. Jefferies raised its price target to $58 from $56. The consensus target is $55.17. The stock closed Friday at $46.38.

KeyCorp

This is a smaller large cap bank that makes good sense now, and it was recently added to the Franchise Picks list. KeyCorp. (NYSE: KEY) operates as the bank holding company for KeyBank National Association, which provides deposit, lending, cash management and investment services to individuals, small and medium-sized businesses.

The company also provides a broad range of sophisticated corporate and investment banking products, such as merger and acquisition advice, public and private debt and equity, syndications and derivatives to middle market companies in selected industries throughout the United States under the KeyBanc Capital Markets banner.

Jefferies likes the larger regional banks, noting that valuations look very reasonable and cost saving plans are helping to make forward estimates look very achievable. With overall credit remaining solid, earnings and loan, deposit and fee growth all are positive metrics for the bank.

Investors receive a 2.45% dividend. Jefferies has a $16 price target. The consensus target is $14.62. Shares closed Friday at $14.05.

We have stressed to our readers the need for caution as a tired bull market deals with an historic and somewhat unusual election cycle. We still believe that some of the top companies are cheap compared to those in other sectors, and these are some that look poised to do well post-election.

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