Unemployment & Payrolls Signal The Double-Dip Recession
September 2, 2011 by Jon C. Ogg
The jobs recession is afoot, as if you did not already know that. The Labor Department reported a dismal figure of ZERO on the change in non-Farm payrolls for August. Furthermore, the unemployment rate was static at 9.1%. Bloomberg had consensus at 9.1% and the consensus for non-Farm Payrolls was 60,000. Keep in mind that Goldman Sachs just cut its estimates from 50,000 to 25,000 during yesterday’s trading session.
The government accounted for the zero factor, but the private sector only added 17,000 jobs. Again they are blaming Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) workers being some 45,000 of the figure, but this payrolls data is awful even if you try to pin a strike on the data.
That mystery gain from a month earlier was also corrected back closer to prior estimates. The figure for July was revised to 85,000 (from 117,000) in July and revised lower to 20,000 in June.
President Obama is set to unveil his jobs program next week, but at this point there is a simple question to ask: What difference does it make? That should have been done two years ago and it is obviously tied to the pre-election process.
The only good news here about calling a recession a double-dip recession is that it has actually been too long of a recovery to be considered a double-dip. Now the debate for the call of QE3 will increase.
JON C. OGG
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