The market better get ready for a low reading on the jobs front this Friday when it comes to payrolls. There are two very weak readings which are going to sour the expectation, one from ADP and one from Trim Tabs.
Friday’s expectation for nonfarm payrolls is expected to be 165,000 or so per the consensus target for April from Bloomberg’s survey of economists. That is against only 120,000 in March. It is now looking like the number will not only be shy of expectations. The reading from the Labor Department could now even show a sequential decline.
ADP showed this morning that only 119,000 payrolls were added in April. Dow Jones had a target of 175,000 and Bloomberg was even higher at 183,000 for consensus targets.
TrimTabs is projecting that the U.S. economy added an anemic 116,000 jobs in April. That is down by 23% from a revised 150,000 jobs in March.
TrimTabs noted, “While the consensus view is that the BLS will announce the creation of 170,000 jobs, this more optimistic forecast does not jive with TrimTabs real-time withholding tax based results. Not only does real-time data say employment growth is less robust than government sources report, wage and salary growth is considerably lower than that reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.”
If the Labor Department manages to show any large gains or any magic improvements to the unemployment rate again, the accusations of data manipulation are going to fly. It just does not look as though the Labor market is showing that much resilience.
Sadly, this is also right before the waves and waves of college graduates are trying to enter the workforce.
JON C. OGG