The national employment report from ADP each month is ostensibly a front-running number to the nonfarm payrolls data that is issued along with the unemployment report by the Labor Department each month. ADP has a questionable history of when it comes to accuracy, but if there a correlation then there is little cheer coming this Friday when unemployment and payrolls data are released.
ADP said that the United States created 118,000 payrolls in November, which is just under the Bloomberg consensus target of 125,000 that had been expected. The prior report from October was revised down to 157,000 from 158,000. Manufacturing was said to have lost 16,000 jobs, but this may truly be tied to the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
Bloomberg has consensus estimates for the official Labor Department reports on employment this Friday as follows: 80,000 nonfarm payrolls, 8.0% on unemployment and 95,000 in private sector payrolls.
The ADP National Employment Report is tallied up after looking at data from a subset of ADP records that, in the final six months of 2008, represented approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 24 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors.
Today’s data will not handily change any estimates ahead of Friday’s key data.
JON C. OGG