Payroll to Population Employment Rate Ticks Higher in October: Gallup

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In October 2012 the P2P rate was 45.7%, a three-year high.

Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October fell from 7.7% in September to 7.3%. The “official” unemployment rate is scheduled to be announced Friday morning, and the consensus estimate calls for the unemployment rate to rise from 7.2% to 7.3%.

According to Gallup, its P2P metric is based on the entire population, not just those in the workforce as is the case with unemployment rate computations, nor does the survey include the self-employed, part-time workers, the unemployed or workers who are out of the workforce.

Gallup said that the percentage of part-time workers who want full-time jobs fell from 9.4% in September to 9.2% in October. The August reading of 7.7% was the lowest to date in 2013.

Gallup also reported that the workforce participation rate rose slightly month-over-month from 67% in September to 67.1% in October. Workforce participation fell year-over-year, from 68.3% in October 2012.

New claims for jobless benefits reported this morning fell from 340,000 in the prior week to 336,000 last week, slightly worse than the consensus estimate for a drop to 335,000.

Gallup notes that the U.S. job market “continues to show no signs of catching up to [its] pre-recession trajectory.” The P2P rate so far in 2013 has averaged 43.9%, an increase of just 0.4% from 3 years ago and the percentage of the U.S. population that is self-employed has grown from 4.8% in 2010 to 5.3% while the percentage of the population working part-time but seeking full-time employment has risen from 9.2% to 9.6% in the same period.