Stocks: (TGT)(WMT)
Research firms are wonderful. They can grab headlines with all sorts of predictions.Consulting firm Retail Forward says that Target will double its revenue between now and 2010. That would put it at $95 billion. That would mean that Target would have to operate over 2,000 stores. Target has 1,500 now. The firm also predicts that Wal-Mart revenue will rise from the $312 billion it did in its last fiscal to $500 billion. Nifty trick given Wal-Mart’s same-store sales. Perhaps they can make it up overseas. Retail Forward does admit that companies like JC Penney make be in the market taking share.
It could be that Retail Forward has a better crystal ball. But, Target’s revenue from 2001 to 2006 went from just under $37 billion to almost $53 billion. That doesn’t seem like doubling. And, the base was much smaller.
From 2001 to 2006, Wal-Mart revenue grew 63%. It would have to grow over 60% again to hit the Retail Forward 2010 forecast.
That’s just silly.
Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at [email protected]. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.
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