Retail

3 Momentum Retail Stocks Could Benefit Big From Falling Gas Prices

Despite some chatter from Wall Street pundits on the negatives of falling oil, and ultimately falling gasoline prices, most Americans are thrilled to see the huge savings each time they fill up. A new report from RBC estimates that with gasoline down about $0.46 per gallon over the past 12 months, that will equate to a savings of about $500 a year, which is huge for somebody making say, $50,000 per year. For lower income consumers who frequent dollar stores to maximize savings for their families and who drive older automobiles that require items from auto parts stores, some of the savings will shoot directly to those retailers.

Of the seven top stocks that RBC thinks should benefit, the following three are rated Outperform.

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (NYSE: AAP) makes the list, and auto-parts stores as a whole are having another fantastic year. The company is the largest automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, and it serves both the do-it-yourself and professional installer markets. As of July 2014, Advance operated 5,289 company-operated stores and 106 Worldpac branches, and it served approximately 1,400 independently owned Carquest branded stores in 49 states, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Canada. RBC likes the prospects so much, they feel the stock can trade to, and receive a higher forward multiple of 19 times earnings, versus the past three years 15 times.

Advance shareholders are paid a small 0.2% dividend. The RBC price target for the stock is $155. The Thomson/First Call consensus price target is $151. The stock closed trading on Wednesday at $149.37.

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Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) had underperformed its rivals in the discount space this year, but a recent rally has pushed the stock back up. The company is still fighting Dollar General in an acquisition battle over Charlotte-based Family Dollar Stores. Dollar Tree currently has 4,777 stores in the United States and another 177 in Canada. It expands its square footage through new locations and tries to increase sales in existing stores in order to grow. With metrics bottoming and its core clientele improving along with the economy, the stock has good potential, especially should the acquisition be completed in a timely manner.

The RBC price target on Dollar Tree is $65, and the consensus target is $61.04. The stock closed Wednesday at $61.13 a share.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) has been riding the same positive wave that all the automotive parts retailers have. In fact, the current growth estimate for this year calls for earnings per share growth of 16.3%. Furthermore, the long-term growth rate is currently an impressive 15.6%, suggesting pretty good prospects for the long haul. Lastly, in terms of delivering consistent shareholder value, the company has posted 16 straight quarters of double-digit sales growth.

RBC has a $180 price objective, and the consensus target is posted at $178.89. The stock closed Wednesday at $177.46.

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These stocks have outperformed most sectors over the past two years in a big way, so investors may want to buy partial positions and look to fill in the balance on any move down. That said, with the economic tailwind provided to consumers from lower gasoline prices, they could continue the march higher through 2015.

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