American parents will spend more this year than last and begin back-to-school shopping earlier. In theory, it is a good sign for the economy. Unless, that is, people cut spending later to make up for high spending now.

According to research by Rubicon Project:

Although summer vacations seem to have just begun, parents already have back to school shopping on their minds, the new Consumer Pulse survey found. … The survey explored the purchasing intent and behavior of parents with students in grades K-12 and in college.

More than half of the parents surveyed (56 percent) said they plan to spend more money per child than they did last year to prepare the students for the upcoming school year. K-12 parents plan to spend on average $873 per student, while parents who also have college students are planning to spend more than $1,100 per student. Parents have also started their back-to-school shopping early. Nearly one-quarter of K-12 parents (23 percent) have already begun and will continue to spread their purchases throughout the summer.

Ironically, parents continue to look for value, even as they open their pocketbooks wider:

Saving money and finding great deals still lie at the heart of back-to-school shopping for many parents. Nearly two-thirds of parents surveyed (61 percent) said store sales and promotions are the top determinant of when they conduct their back-to-school shopping.

Nearly three in four parents (74 percent) said they prefer to shop at a big box retailer or large chain store if it meant getting a better deal.

The trend should make managements at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) happy.

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One of the recurring risks to retailers comes from the amount of money consumers have as they enter the second half of the year, particularly as the holiday season, which starts as early as October, approaches. Not only can Americans run low on money, but the economy could dip after the summer, leaving consumers feeling poor. Back-to-school spending is no guarantee that the retail industry will prosper in 2015.

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